Articles
Research notes from the paper-trading project: market bias, model guardrails, backtests and method updates.
Favourite-longshot bias in football odds
A practical check on 1X2 longshots, draws and over/under 2.5 buckets using imported Football-Data history. This is the report behind the current model guardrails.
BacktestAsian handicap research notes
The first standalone Asian handicap report, including line movement checks and why AH is still research-only until live paper trading proves it.
BacktestChallenger model backtest
A comparison of alternative model shapes after the first bad longshot day, covering 1X2 price gaps, strong favourites, totals and Asian handicap movement.
Model labSerious model lab
Rolling Poisson, Elo/form, capped market overlays, totals, Asian handicap and longshot guard models tested against the public paper-trading failure.
All articles are research notes for paper trading. They are not betting advice, and the system does not place bets automatically.