Articles
Research notes from the paper-trading project: market bias, model guardrails, backtests and method updates.
Market bias
Favourite-longshot bias in football odds
A practical check on 1X2 longshots, draws and totals buckets using imported Football-Data history.
Backtest
Asian handicap research notes
The first standalone Asian handicap report, including line-move checks and why AH is still research-only.
Backtest
Challenger model backtest
Alternative model shapes after the first bad longshot day, covering 1X2, totals and Asian handicap movement.
Model lab
Serious model lab
Rolling Poisson, Elo/form, capped market overlays, totals, Asian handicap and longshot-guard research.
All articles are research notes for paper trading. They are not betting advice, and the system does not place bets automatically.