Backtest
Asian handicap research notes
The first standalone Asian handicap report, including line-move checks and why AH is still research-only.
Updated 2026-05-11 19:00 UTC. Paper-trading research only.
Generated: 2026-05-11T19:00:50+00:00
Football-Data does include Asian handicap columns. This report uses the raw CSV fields AHh, AvgAHH, AvgAHA, MaxAHH, MaxAHA, AHCh, AvgCAHH, AvgCAHA, MaxCAHH, and MaxCAHA.
Important: the line-move strategies are hindsight CLV checks because they use the closing line. They are useful for validating whether movement mattered historically, not for pretending we knew the close in advance. The best-price strategies are closer to a live scrape-and-shop setup.
| Strategy | Bets | Profit u | ROI | Wins | Losses | Pushes | Avg odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| opening_ah_line_move_hindsight | 15165 | 820.87 | 5.4% | 8012 | 6051 | 1102 | 1.851 |
| opening_ah_price_move_hindsight | 12149 | 101.87 | 0.8% | 5664 | 5521 | 964 | 1.986 |
| best_price_vs_opening_average_3_5pct | 25 | -4.89 | -19.6% | 8 | 13 | 4 | 2.129 |
| best_price_vs_closing_average_3_5pct | 384 | 40.27 | 10.5% | 181 | 167 | 36 | 2.15 |
Read
- Asian handicaps are the right next market to test because they avoid a lot of longshot favourite bias that hurts 1X2 outsiders and draws.
- A profitable line-move result would support storing openers and measuring direction of travel daily.
- A weak best-price result means we should keep AH as research only until live bookmaker snapshots prove the edge is tradable.
Scope
- Matches loaded: 41775
- Matches with opening AH: 41747
- Matches with closing AH: 41771
- Seasons: 1819, 1920, 2021, 2122, 2223, 2324, 2425, 2526
- Leagues: 16
Closing Best Price By League
| League | Bets | Profit u | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| Germany Bundesliga | 43 | -0.58 | -1.4% |
| England Premier League | 39 | 3.33 | 8.6% |
| Netherlands Eredivisie | 34 | 5.11 | 15.0% |
| Spain La Liga | 29 | -4.34 | -15.0% |
| England Championship | 28 | 8.25 | 29.5% |
| Italy Serie A | 25 | 3.21 | 12.8% |
| England League One | 24 | 6.25 | 26.0% |
| Italy Serie B | 21 | 6.17 | 29.4% |
| Belgium Pro League | 20 | 4.94 | 24.7% |
| France Ligue 1 | 20 | -5.53 | -27.7% |
| France Ligue 2 | 20 | 5.17 | 25.9% |
| Spain Segunda | 20 | -3.47 | -17.3% |
Bot Decision
Do not publish Asian handicap tips automatically yet. Add the fields to the importer, run this through the normal paper-trading record, then promote AH only if live snapshots beat the close and the realised paper record holds up.
Raw report: asian-handicap-backtest.md. Machine-readable data: asian-handicap-backtest.json.