Backtest
Asian handicap research notes
Football-Data does include Asian handicap fields, so this is now a proper research lane rather than a missing-data assumption. The useful signal is not "always bet handicaps". It is opener, movement, current price and team news together.
Opening AH line move+5.4%
Opening AH price move+0.8%
Best price vs opener avg-19.6%
Best price vs close avg+10.5%
Why Asian Handicap Matters
- It is a cleaner two-way expression than 1X2 when the favourite is strong but the outright price is cramped.
- It avoids a lot of the draw and longshot favourite-longshot bias seen in the 1X2 report.
- It suits football news signals better: injuries, rotation, motivation and tactical mismatch usually change expected margin, not just win probability.
- It is the preferred way to handle a strong favourite that looks vulnerable. The bot should not jump straight to the draw or away outsider.
- Tottenham v Leeds was the live example: Leeds outright lost in a 1-1 draw, while Leeds +0.5 would have won and DNB / Asian 0 would have pushed.
- It needs live price discipline. A stale or outlier max price is not an edge by itself.
Backtest Summary
The line-move strategies are hindsight CLV checks because they use the closing line. They are useful for validating whether movement mattered historically, not for pretending the close was known in advance.
| Strategy | Bets | Profit u | ROI | Wins | Losses | Pushes | Avg odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Opening AH line move hindsight | 15,165 | 820.87 | 5.4% | 8,012 | 6,051 | 1,102 | 1.851 |
| Opening AH price move hindsight | 12,149 | 101.87 | 0.8% | 5,664 | 5,521 | 964 | 1.986 |
| Best price vs opening average, 3.5pt edge | 25 | -4.89 | -19.6% | 8 | 13 | 4 | 2.129 |
| Best price vs closing average, 3.5pt edge | 384 | 40.27 | 10.5% | 181 | 167 | 36 | 2.150 |
Closing Best Price By League
| League | Bets | Profit u | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| Germany Bundesliga | 43 | -0.58 | -1.4% |
| England Premier League | 39 | 3.33 | 8.6% |
| Netherlands Eredivisie | 34 | 5.11 | 15.0% |
| Spain La Liga | 29 | -4.34 | -15.0% |
| England Championship | 28 | 8.25 | 29.5% |
| Italy Serie A | 25 | 3.21 | 12.8% |
| England League One | 24 | 6.25 | 26.0% |
| Italy Serie B | 21 | 6.17 | 29.4% |
| Belgium Pro League | 20 | 4.94 | 24.7% |
| France Ligue 1 | 20 | -5.53 | -27.7% |
| France Ligue 2 | 20 | 5.17 | 25.9% |
| Spain Segunda | 20 | -3.47 | -17.3% |
Bot Decision
- Do not publish Asian handicap tips automatically yet.
- Add AH fields to the importer and store opening lines, current lines and closing lines.
- Use AH first as a paper-traded research market, especially for strong favourites, DNB and -0.25 / -0.5 style positions.
- Use AH/DNB before 1X2 longshots when the thesis is "the favourite is vulnerable but still structurally strong".
- Promote AH to public tips only if live snapshots beat the close and the realised paper record holds up.
The raw machine-readable report is still available as asian-handicap-backtest.md. The related market bias article is Favourite-longshot bias in football odds.