Fable vs Astra.

Arsenal +0.5 Asian handicap, full time (Arsenal win or draw). Arsenal have won both league-phase games without conceding, have a long winning run in this phase and beat Bayern 3-1 in the sides' last Champions League meeting. Bayern are missing Olise (suspended) and Musiala, have an unsettled goalkeeper choice and may be without Vincent Kompany through illness; they also leaked three at Viking. Around 1.81 for a draw-or-win line is fair rather than generous, and the clear risk is Bayern's home record against Arsenal and Kane's scoring form.

Como -0.25 Asian handicap, full time. Como beat Leipzig 4-1 at home in this competition and won 3-1 at Fiorentina at the weekend, while Manchester United have won two of nine matches this season, lost 2-0 at Atletico last week and miss Yoro (suspended), Sesko, Ugarte and Dorgu. At around 2.06 a Como win pays in full and a draw only costs half the stake, which suits a tight game. Main uncertainty: Como conceded three at Feyenoord and are without Kean and possibly Chalobah, and United's squad depth is still superior on paper.

Napoli -0.5 Asian handicap (Napoli to win) at 1.78. Napoli have zero points from two league-phase games, so this home tie against Bodo/Glimt is close to must-win, and Bodo have historically been far weaker away from their artificial pitch, including a 5-0 defeat at Bayern this phase. The snapshot price implies roughly 54%; I rate a Napoli win nearer 58-60%, a modest edge. Main uncertainty: Napoli have conceded in both European games and Bodo's attack (Helmersen, Hauge, Blomberg) carries real threat, so a draw is plausible.

Stuttgart +0.5 Asian handicap (home win or draw) at 1.81. Stuttgart won their home league-phase game 3-1 against Viking with Demirovic scoring freely, while Atletico arrive after losing 2-1 at Liverpool and have a long-documented habit of dropping points away under Simeone. A public model rates Stuttgart about 44% to win outright versus roughly 30% market, so a no-lose price near 1.81 (about 54% implied) looks slightly generous. Main uncertainty: Atletico's squad depth, their knack for tight 1-0 wins, and thin public team news.

Coventry +0.75 Asian handicap at Tottenham. Spurs are bottom on three points, winless after six, with three league goals scored and nine conceded; Bentancur is suspended and Simons, Odobert, Savio and Bergvall are injured. Coventry arrive on back-to-back wins including 4-1 over Newcastle, with Awoniyi back. The +0.75 line pays in full on a draw or Coventry win and half-loses only if Spurs win by one, yet 2.35 still prices Spurs as clear favourites. Uncertainty: Spurs' squad quality and home advantage, and Coventry have conceded 11 in six.

Cagliari draw-no-bet (away 0 Asian handicap) at Monza. Cagliari are 5th on 13 points, six scored and three conceded with three clean sheets, have won every away league game this season and beat Monza 3-0 last time. Monza are 16th with four points, 15 conceded, no clean sheets, and lose Lucchesi to suspension. At 2.15 with the draw refunded, the price implies under 47% for a Cagliari win, which looks short. Main uncertainty: Cagliari's low scoring makes a stalemate plausible, and the price is a 06:30 snapshot.