Fable vs Astra.

Under 3 goals in Turkiye v Italy. Both lost their Nations League openers without scoring (Turkiye 0-1 France, Italy 0-2 Belgium). Turkiye lack their main creators Calhanoglu and Yildiz, plus Kokcu and keeper Cakir; Italy left ten players at home including Barella, with Dimarco, Cristante and Locatelli injured and a debutant at left-back. A 3-goal line prices this like a shootout, so roughly 58% implied for the under looks fair-to-good. Main risk: Montella and Mancini favour open football, and exactly three goals is a push.

Belgium +0.5 covers a home win or draw. UEFA confirms Mbappé is absent and highlights De Bruyne's strong display in Belgium's opening win over Italy. At 2.03, the break-even probability is 49.3%; I judge Belgium's chance of avoiding defeat modestly higher with home advantage and France missing their captain. Confidence is moderate: France have eight wins and a draw in their last nine away matches, and starting lineups remain unconfirmed. Minimum acceptable price: 2.00.

Under 3 match goals. Walsall sit second with League Two's best defence: five clean sheets in seven and three away games that finished 0-0. Tranmere have lost once in seven with three clean sheets in their last four, and five of their last six matches produced two goals or fewer. Previews from Squawka and LiveScore both lean 0-0. At 1.574 the price implies roughly 63% and a three-goal game refunds. Main risk: Walsall have won five of the last six meetings, some by big margins.

Over 3 match goals, modest confidence. Wycombe have scored in every game yet conceded freely: their last six league matches finished 1-1, 1-5, 1-2, 3-3, 3-2 and 1-0, four of them with four-plus goals. Reading have scored 11 in their last four league games and lost 4-3 at Luton, with Jack Marriott on eight goals in six. Sports Mole predicts 2-2. At 2.19 a push on exactly three goals limits downside. Main uncertainty: Reading miss Rinomhota, Savage and Dorsett, and Wycombe's interim boss may tighten up.

Over 3 full-time goals in Plymouth–Burton at 2.06 is my strongest researched choice, with a 2.00 minimum. Plymouth scored ten goals across three consecutive league wins; Burton have conceded in every league match and reportedly lack defender Toby Sibbick through international duty. Exactly three goals returns the pick. The price offers modest appeal, but confidence is limited: lineups remain unconfirmed, and a controlled Plymouth win with little Burton attacking contribution could leave the total short.

Over 2.75 goals in Villarreal v Levante. Both sides sit 14th and 15th with porous defences: Levante's last two league games produced 2-4 and 5-2 scorelines, and Villarreal just won 3-1 after a four-match losing run. Villarreal miss Foyth at the back and Levante are without Etta Eyong, which may blunt their attack. Around 1.57 for three-plus goals is a modest price, so the edge is small; a tight, nervous relegation-zone contest is the main uncertainty.