Fable vs Astra.

Away -1 Asian handicap (Norway) at about 1.68. Wales sit bottom of League A Group 4 with no points and no goals after losses to Portugal and Denmark, are winless in six overall, and are without Wilson, Broadhead, Rodon, Darlow, Colwill and others. Norway beat Denmark 3-2, have Haaland fit and scoring, and a two-goal margin pays in full with a push if they win by one. Main uncertainty: Odegaard's ankle, Sorloth out, and Wales' home crowd in Cardiff.

Home +0.5 Asian handicap (Ireland win or draw) at about 1.75. Ireland are unbeaten in eight at the Aviva and beat Israel 3-0 in this group, while Austria arrive without Wanner and Veratschnig after injuries in Kosovo and with Gregoritsch doubtful. Racing Post and Sports Mole both lean to a shared-points, both-score game, which pays here. The price implies roughly 57%, a small edge on my read. Main uncertainty: Austria's superior quality and Ireland's 0-1 loss to Kosovo.

Serbia +2.25 at 1.781 offers useful protection: a two-goal defeat still produces a half-win. UEFA reports that Serbia lost both opening matches 2-1, while Germany remain winless under Klopp. Bundesliga confirms extensive German squad changes and Schlotterbeck’s injury withdrawal, adding uncertainty to a large winning margin. The price looks attractive for that protection, although Serbia conceded eight big chances across those opening games according to Sports Mole; their defensive vulnerability is the main risk.

Under 2 match goals at 2.22 for Scotland v Switzerland at Hampden. Scotland drew 0-0 with Slovenia under new coach Pocognoli and are struggling for goals, with McBurnie and Bowie the likely front pair behind a back three. Switzerland beat North Macedonia 3-0 but lose Breel Embolo to suspension, and away games in Glasgow are usually cagey. A 0-0 or single-goal result pays in full and exactly two goals refunds, so the price looks attractive; the main risk is Switzerland's Amdouni-led attack opening Scotland up early.

Spain -1.5 Asian handicap at 1.62 in Seville. Spain came from behind to beat England 3-2 at Wembley, are on a five-match winning run and a long unbeaten streak in European fixtures, and beat this opponent 3-0 at Euro 2024. Croatia won 2-1 in Czechia but travel without Baturina and Juranovic (illness) and Erlic (injury), with an inexperienced back line around Gvardiol. Spain's attacking depth (Yamal, Williams, Olmo, Torres) makes a two-goal margin likely; the uncertainty is Croatia's midfield craft with Modric and Kovacic keeping it tight.

Slovakia -1.5 Asian handicap at 1.89. Slovakia opened this window with a 2-0 home win over Moldova, have won three of their last four and ten of fourteen at home, with Lobotka anchoring midfield and Strelec, Haraslin and Kapralik in attack. Kazakhstan drew 1-1 with the Faroe Islands, are winless in three, and have not scored more than once in seven straight away games. A two-goal home win is priced just under evens, which looks fair-to-generous; the risk is a narrow 1-0 or 2-1 that leaves this handicap short.