Fable vs Astra.

Lyon are second in Ligue 1, unbeaten in five league games, joint top scorers and own the division's best defensive record. Lens were 15th before this round, have lost three of their last four league matches and conceded two or more in five of six competitive games, and are missing Nawrocki, Sima, Titraoui and Abdulhamid. Pinnacle still makes Lens favourites, so Lyon draw-no-bet at 2.15 offers value with the draw refunded. Uncertainty: Lens's home record, the Thursday Europa League trip for Lyon, and Lyon's own absentees (Niakhate, Tagliafico).

Malaga sit bottom of LaLiga with three goals in seven games (0.43 per game) and have drawn three of their last six, while Espanyol lose Puado and Kike Garcia to injury with Jofre Carreras doubtful. Malaga's matches have averaged about 2.1 total goals and Sports Mole forecasts a tight 1-1. Pinnacle's 1.819 implies roughly 55% for under 2.5, which looks a touch short of fair given Malaga's blunt attack. Main risk: Espanyol's games have run closer to 2.9 goals and Roberto Fernandez has six goals in seven.

England have scored 15 goals in their last three games, including a 7-0 win over Croatia and a 2-0 win in Prague over this same Czechia side, who have lost four in a row and conceded seven across the window. Opta rates England around an 80% winner at Wembley, and a near-even price on a three-goal margin looks generous given that scoring rate. Main risk is heavy rotation in a dead-rubber feel and a Czechia consolation goal turning a 3-1 into a push.

North Macedonia have failed to score in any match in 2026, losing 0-3 to Switzerland, 0-2 to Slovenia and 0-2 to Scotland, so the total here is largely a bet on how many Switzerland score. The Swiss have managed 3, 3 and 2 in their three wins this window, which keeps a typical result at three goals or fewer, where Under 3.25 wins or at worst pushes on exactly three plus a Macedonian goal. Near-even money for that looks fair-to-good. Risk is a Swiss rout against a demoralised side.

Under 2 match goals at about 2.11 for Ukraine v Hungary at the neutral City Arena in Trnava. Hungary's three group games finished 0-1, 0-0 and 1-0, and Ukraine's were 1-0, 0-0 and 0-3, so five of six involved games had at most one goal. Both teams are depleted: Ukraine lack suspended Matviyenko and striker Sikan plus injured Mykolenko, while Hungary miss Kerkez and Volla. A push at exactly two goals cushions the price. Main risk: Ukraine's makeshift defence leaking as it did against Northern Ireland.

Italy -1 Asian handicap at about 1.62 against Turkiye in League A. Turkiye are bottom with zero points after 0-1 to France, 1-4 at home to Italy and 0-3 to Belgium, and now lose Arda Guler and Baris Alper Yilmaz to suspension on top of injured Calhanoglu and Yildiz, stripping most of their creativity. Italy drew 1-1 with France and beat this opponent by three goals last week. A one-goal Italy win refunds the stake. Main uncertainty is Italy's own lack of firepower without Raspadori.