Fable vs Astra.

Greece +1 (full-time Asian handicap). Greece lead Group A2 with 7 points from three games, including a historic 1-0 win over Germany and a 2-1 win over Serbia, and have not lost at home this campaign. Germany, under a new manager and without Musiala and Havertz, have scored only three goals in three Nations League matches. This pick wins unless Germany win by two or more, with a push on a one-goal German win. Pinnacle had drifted from 1.666 to 1.60 by this morning, so the price is fair rather than generous. Risks: Tzolis is doubtful for Greece, and Germany's underlying quality could still produce a comfortable win.

Portugal -0.75 (full-time Asian handicap). Portugal are a perfect 3-0 in Group A4 (1-0 at Wales, 2-1 at Norway, 4-2 at Denmark) and lead by six points, with the manager openly targeting a win to seal qualification. Norway have lost both matches since beating Denmark and are benching goalkeeper Nyland after his error in Oslo. The pick pays in full on a two-goal Portuguese win and half on a one-goal win. Pinnacle still shows 1.775, steady since the packet snapshot. Main uncertainty: Ronaldo's departure from the squad and Norway's strong first hour in the reverse fixture show the visitors can trouble Portugal.

Ireland -0.25 Asian handicap at 1.869 is my strongest modest-confidence choice: they beat Israel 3-0 last week and followed with a 2-2 draw against Austria, while Israel have scored once in three group games. The price offers reasonable compensation for a draw costing half the pick. The main uncertainties are Ireland's defensive absences, possible rotation and the neutral venue in Serbia; this is a small perceived edge, not a high-confidence forecast.

Spain are on nine consecutive wins, having beaten England 3-2 and Croatia 4-1 in this group, with Laporte, Rodri and Olmo back and Yamal on three goals. Czechia lost 2-1 to Croatia and 2-0 to England, sit on zero points, and are without Sulc (suspended) and probably Karabec (injured). Pinnacle's -2.75 line shortened from 1.77 to 1.73 overnight, so the market leans the same way. Uncertainty: Spain need a three-goal margin for a half win and four for a full win, and a comfortable 2-0 loses outright.

Croatia–England over 3 full-time goals at 2.07 offers an appealing return with a refund on exactly three goals. Croatia conceded in 11 of their last 12 internationals, while six of England's last seven matches exceeded 2.5 goals; their June meeting finished 4-2. These trends support a modest preference for goals, not a high-confidence edge. Unconfirmed lineups, possible tactical caution and England's recent clean sheet are the main uncertainties. Minimum acceptable odds: 1.95.

Sweden +0.25 Asian handicap at Bosnia and Herzegovina. Sweden have won both group games (2-1 v Romania, 3-1 v Poland) with Gyokeres scoring in each, while Bosnia drew 0-0 in Poland before a 4-2 win over a leaky Romania. The quarter-ball line pays in full on a Sweden win and half on a draw, which suits a tight top-of-group meeting where the away side is the form team. Price near 1.60 is reasonable rather than generous. Main uncertainty: Isak has withdrawn with a minor injury and Bosnia report a fully fit squad with strong home support.