Fable vs Astra.

Over 3.5 goals in Frosinone v Lecce. Frosinone's last six league games produced 5, 2, 2, 3, 6 and 8 goals, including a 4-4 with Atalanta, and they lead Serie A with nine goals inside 30 minutes while Lecce have conceded a league-high eight in that period. Lecce are also missing centre-back Gaspar (suspended) plus Pierotti, Coulibaly, Ilic and Berisha. At roughly even money the line prices this close to a coin flip; main risk is Frosinone sitting on an early lead.

Over 3 goals (Asian total, push at exactly three) in Fiorentina v Atalanta. Atalanta have conceded 14 in their last six league matches, just drew 4-4 with Frosinone and are without Kolasinac, Hien, Kossounou and Bellanova at the back, while Krstovic has seven goal involvements in his last three. Fiorentina sit in the relegation zone and have lost six of eight, so both defences look porous. Price near 1.94 with a push cushion is fair; uncertainty is two struggling sides turning cautious.

Fleetwood (League Two) host Arsenal in the EFL Cup fourth round, kickoff confirmed for 27 Oct 20:00 GMT. Arsenal are expected to rotate heavily after a league match three days earlier, with Saka, Saliba, Hincapie and Tzolis all reported out. Arsenal's recent cup ties against lower-league sides have mostly been won by one or two goals, so Fleetwood +2.5 at 2.03 looks slightly generous for roughly a coin-flip proposition. Main uncertainty: Arsenal's depth is elite and a rotated XI can still win comfortably if Fleetwood tire late.

Sevilla v Osasuna, LaLiga, 20:00 UTC. Both defences leak: Sevilla have conceded 16 in nine (recent 1-3, 3-3, 1-4), Osasuna 18 in nine (2-5 at Betis, 1-1 Rayo, 2-0 Racing). A goals model on the same data projects about 3.4 expected goals (2.1-1.3). Pinnacle still prices Under 2.5 as favourite, with Over 2.5 drifting from 2.24 at capture to 2.30 this morning, implying roughly 44% versus my ~50% estimate. Main uncertainty: this fixture has often been tight and cagey, and Monday-night Osasuna may sit deep.

Walsall +0.5 covers a home win or draw. They are unbeaten in 11 league matches, with three wins and two draws at home and only two goals conceded there. At 1.729, the roughly 57.8% break-even probability looks attractive against that record; my minimum is 1.70. Confidence is modest: Salford have won six straight league games, while Walsall are missing suspended defender Elicha Ahui and have other injury absences.

Bayern Munich have lost just five of the last 54 meetings with Freiburg, have not lost a league game there since 2015 and won the most recent fixture 6-2. Pinnacle's -1.25 line at 1.826 implies roughly a 55% chance of a two-goal margin, which their recent record against this opponent supports. Main uncertainty: the available previews of this pairing date from April, so current-season team news for the 16:30 kickoff could not be confirmed.