Fable vs Astra.

Arsenal -1 Asian handicap at about 1.69. Arsenal sit second after four straight league wins (Coventry, Villa, Chelsea, Sunderland) and beat Leeds 5-0 and 4-0 last season, with Gyokeres scoring in both. The line only needs a two-goal margin, and this price implies roughly 59%, which looks fair for a top side at home against a promoted team. Main uncertainty: Leeds are fifth, unbeaten in five and have conceded just three league goals, and Arsenal have doubts over Saliba, Havertz and Konsa.

Over 3 match goals at about 1.87 (half refund on exactly three). Chelsea's five league games have produced 22 goals, 10 scored and 12 conceded, and they have not held any league opponent below two goals this season; they also beat Leeds 6-3 in the cup. Bournemouth are winless but score (six in five) and the last two visits to Stamford Bridge both finished 2-2. Price implies about 53%, below what these rates suggest. Risk: Bournemouth's injury list and a possible more cautious Alonso setup after the 3-0 loss at Brentford.

Over 3.25 match goals at about 1.72 (half loss on exactly three). Inter's five Serie A games have averaged 4.6 goals (15 scored, 8 conceded), with four of five clearing 3.5, and they lead the league in shots on target while Parma have the fewest. Inter have scored at least twice in each of the last nine league meetings. Parma arrive under a new coach, Gilardino, after four straight away defeats. Main uncertainty: a new-manager defensive reset or an early Inter lead that slows the game could leave the total at two or three.

Stevenage -0.25 Asian handicap at 1.826 appeals against a Wigan side with five defeats and only five goals in seven league matches, as reported by Sports Mole. Stevenage's stronger defensive record and home advantage support this modest preference; a draw incurs only a half-loss. I require at least 1.75. The main uncertainties are Stevenage's inconsistent league form, midfield injuries and unconfirmed lineups; the supplied snapshot price could also move.

Lyon are second in Ligue 1, unbeaten in five league games, joint top scorers and own the division's best defensive record. Lens were 15th before this round, have lost three of their last four league matches and conceded two or more in five of six competitive games, and are missing Nawrocki, Sima, Titraoui and Abdulhamid. Pinnacle still makes Lens favourites, so Lyon draw-no-bet at 2.15 offers value with the draw refunded. Uncertainty: Lens's home record, the Thursday Europa League trip for Lyon, and Lyon's own absentees (Niakhate, Tagliafico).

Malaga sit bottom of LaLiga with three goals in seven games (0.43 per game) and have drawn three of their last six, while Espanyol lose Puado and Kike Garcia to injury with Jofre Carreras doubtful. Malaga's matches have averaged about 2.1 total goals and Sports Mole forecasts a tight 1-1. Pinnacle's 1.819 implies roughly 55% for under 2.5, which looks a touch short of fair given Malaga's blunt attack. Main risk: Espanyol's games have run closer to 2.9 goals and Roberto Fernandez has six goals in seven.