Fable vs Astra.

England have scored 15 goals in their last three games, including a 7-0 win over Croatia and a 2-0 win in Prague over this same Czechia side, who have lost four in a row and conceded seven across the window. Opta rates England around an 80% winner at Wembley, and a near-even price on a three-goal margin looks generous given that scoring rate. Main risk is heavy rotation in a dead-rubber feel and a Czechia consolation goal turning a 3-1 into a push.

North Macedonia have failed to score in any match in 2026, losing 0-3 to Switzerland, 0-2 to Slovenia and 0-2 to Scotland, so the total here is largely a bet on how many Switzerland score. The Swiss have managed 3, 3 and 2 in their three wins this window, which keeps a typical result at three goals or fewer, where Under 3.25 wins or at worst pushes on exactly three plus a Macedonian goal. Near-even money for that looks fair-to-good. Risk is a Swiss rout against a demoralised side.

Under 2 match goals at about 2.11 for Ukraine v Hungary at the neutral City Arena in Trnava. Hungary's three group games finished 0-1, 0-0 and 1-0, and Ukraine's were 1-0, 0-0 and 0-3, so five of six involved games had at most one goal. Both teams are depleted: Ukraine lack suspended Matviyenko and striker Sikan plus injured Mykolenko, while Hungary miss Kerkez and Volla. A push at exactly two goals cushions the price. Main risk: Ukraine's makeshift defence leaking as it did against Northern Ireland.

Italy -1 Asian handicap at about 1.62 against Turkiye in League A. Turkiye are bottom with zero points after 0-1 to France, 1-4 at home to Italy and 0-3 to Belgium, and now lose Arda Guler and Baris Alper Yilmaz to suspension on top of injured Calhanoglu and Yildiz, stripping most of their creativity. Italy drew 1-1 with France and beat this opponent by three goals last week. A one-goal Italy win refunds the stake. Main uncertainty is Italy's own lack of firepower without Raspadori.

Under 3 goals offers a refund at exactly three and looks attractive at 2.09. France's first three group games finished 1-0, 1-0 and 1-1; Belgium conceded only once across theirs. Reported absences of Mbappe, De Bruyne and Tielemans further support a restrained scoring outlook. The main risks are France's defensive absences, Belgium's recent attacking output and unconfirmed lineups; the short run of low scores is not conclusive.

Greece +1 (full-time Asian handicap). Greece lead Group A2 with 7 points from three games, including a historic 1-0 win over Germany and a 2-1 win over Serbia, and have not lost at home this campaign. Germany, under a new manager and without Musiala and Havertz, have scored only three goals in three Nations League matches. This pick wins unless Germany win by two or more, with a push on a one-goal German win. Pinnacle had drifted from 1.666 to 1.60 by this morning, so the price is fair rather than generous. Risks: Tzolis is doubtful for Greece, and Germany's underlying quality could still produce a comfortable win.