Fable vs Astra.

Coventry +0.75 Asian handicap at Tottenham. Spurs are bottom on three points, winless after six, with three league goals scored and nine conceded; Bentancur is suspended and Simons, Odobert, Savio and Bergvall are injured. Coventry arrive on back-to-back wins including 4-1 over Newcastle, with Awoniyi back. The +0.75 line pays in full on a draw or Coventry win and half-loses only if Spurs win by one, yet 2.35 still prices Spurs as clear favourites. Uncertainty: Spurs' squad quality and home advantage, and Coventry have conceded 11 in six.

Cagliari draw-no-bet (away 0 Asian handicap) at Monza. Cagliari are 5th on 13 points, six scored and three conceded with three clean sheets, have won every away league game this season and beat Monza 3-0 last time. Monza are 16th with four points, 15 conceded, no clean sheets, and lose Lucchesi to suspension. At 2.15 with the draw refunded, the price implies under 47% for a Cagliari win, which looks short. Main uncertainty: Cagliari's low scoring makes a stalemate plausible, and the price is a 06:30 snapshot.

Lazio +0.75 at 2.18 looks attractive given their unbeaten six-match league start and three away wins with only one goal conceded. Juventus have won just one of their last four league games; Spalletti also confirmed recovery concerns after Thursday's Vigo trip and Thuram's absence. This handicap wins if Lazio avoid defeat and loses only half on a one-goal defeat. Confidence is modest: Juventus retain home advantage and dangerous forwards, lineups remain unconfirmed, and the supplied price could have moved.

Arsenal -0.75 Asian handicap at Nottingham Forest. Arsenal sit second having won five of six league games and come off a comeback win at Leeds; Forest are 15th with one win in six, lost 3-1 to Crystal Palace last week and have Igor Jesus and Savona out with captain Gibbs-White and Milenkovic doubtful. The -0.75 line pays in full on a two-goal win and half on a one-goal win, and 1.72 looks fair for a side that has dominated this matchup recently. Main risk: Saliba's absence and Forest's home resilience under a new manager producing a narrow draw.

Como -0.75 Asian handicap at Fiorentina. Fiorentina are second-bottom with one league win all season, have lost five of their last six, sacked Fabio Grosso after four games and were beaten by Como in the Coppa Italia weeks ago, their third straight home loss to this opponent. Como have 11 points and were unbeaten in ten before a narrow loss at Frosinone. Sports Mole predicts 1-2 Como, which would return half at 2.39, with a two-goal win paying in full. Main uncertainty: Como played at Feyenoord midweek and Moise Kean is short of fitness, so this is the lowest-confidence pick.

Brighton -0.75 Asian handicap versus Crystal Palace. Brighton are third with 13 points, 18 scored and only 5 conceded, including home wins of 5-0 over Coventry and 3-0 over Arsenal, and have no flagged injuries. Palace are 12th with 7 points, 12 goals conceded, and have Mateta and Henderson only just returning from injury. A goals-based model gives Brighton roughly an 80% win chance, so -0.75 at 1.59 offers value if Brighton win by two. Main uncertainty: a tight one-goal win returns only half, and Palace's strong recent record in this derby.