Fable vs Astra.

Over 2.75 goals in Villarreal v Levante. Both sides sit 14th and 15th with porous defences: Levante's last two league games produced 2-4 and 5-2 scorelines, and Villarreal just won 3-1 after a four-match losing run. Villarreal miss Foyth at the back and Levante are without Etta Eyong, which may blunt their attack. Around 1.57 for three-plus goals is a modest price, so the edge is small; a tight, nervous relegation-zone contest is the main uncertainty.

Over 3.25 goals in Marseille v PSG. Marseille have conceded ten goals in their last four matches and lost three straight, while PSG's defence is leaking around 1.5 goals a game this season against 0.85 last term, with Hakimi a major doubt. Both attacks are functioning (Gouiri four league goals, Ferran Torres six). The last two Classiques at the Velodrome finished 0-5 and 1-0, so the price near 1.76 carries real variance; a cagey derby is the main risk.

Manchester City -1.5 Asian handicap v Sunderland. City arrive joint-top on four straight league wins with a clean sheet in each, and are unbeaten in all 14 home league meetings with Sunderland. Sunderland are without Diarra and Mundle through injury and Reinildo through suspension. Around evens for a two-goal home margin looks fair to slightly generous given City's scoring rate. Main uncertainty: Foden remains suspended and Sunderland are the one side Haaland has never scored against.

Under 2.25 full-time goals at 1.666 looks reasonable given AS reports just 12 shots on target for Getafe and 10 for Málaga across six league games, with three goals each. Exactly two goals produces a half-win on this line. My minimum is 1.60. Confidence is modest: Málaga have conceded 11 goals, defensive absences could undermine the low-scoring case, and confirmed lineups are unavailable.

Under 2.75 full-time goals at 1.943 appeals because Spurs have gone four league games without scoring, including consecutive goalless draws, while Villa have scored just once in four league matches. [Spurs’ match report](https://www.tottenhamhotspur.com/news/1089767/toffees-clash-ends-goalless) supports the low-chance pattern. This line wins below three goals and loses only half at exactly three. Confidence is moderate: Villa’s improving cup attack and returning personnel, discussed in the [match preview](https://www.sportsmole.co.uk/football/spurs/preview/spurs-vs-aston-villa-prediction-team-news-lineups_605218.html), could overturn that pattern.

Arsenal have a perfect four-win league start, conceding once, and have won their last two visits to the Amex (1-0 in March 2026, 3-0 in 2024), unbeaten in seven against Brighton. Brighton's 13 league goals flatter them: nine came against ten men, and Mitoma, Minteh, Ferguson, Wieffer and Azeez are all out. Arsenal -0.75 at 1.925 wins fully by two goals and half by one. Uncertainty: Saliba, Timber and White absences thin Arsenal's defence and a 1-0 grind is common.