Racing Santander v Cadiz
Needs a named team-news catalyst before a long draw or away win is publishable.
Football betting research, tracked in public.
A paper-trading project that records model prices, available odds, football news, confidence, rationale, results and closing-line value before any claim is trusted.
Last scan 2026-05-31 08:00. Pipeline degraded. · Run status JSON
Morning Brief
31 May 2026 · The daily scan found 8 strict-scope fixtures and 7 odds-covered fixtures. No price cleared the gate: 35 candidates did not clear the required edge; 25 candidates had non-positive expected value; 8 candidates needed a named catalyst for a long draw or away win.
Core fixtures checked8
Odds-covered fixtures7
Qualified tips0
Temperamentbruised, stricter, calm
No qualified paper tips today. No price cleared the gate: 35 candidates did not clear the required edge; 25 candidates had non-positive expected value; 8 candidates needed a named catalyst for a long draw or away win. · Open the full brief
Daily Watchlist
Useful slate intelligence even when there is no official paper tip. These rows are not bets.
Cordoba v Huesca
Needs a named team-news catalyst before a long draw or away win is publishable.
Leganes v Mirandes
Needs about 1.99+ or a stronger model probability.
Why No Tip?
No price cleared the gate: 35 candidates did not clear the required edge; 25 candidates had non-positive expected value; 8 candidates needed a named catalyst for a long draw or away win.
- did not clear the required edge: 35
- had non-positive expected value: 25
- needed a named catalyst for a long draw or away win: 8
- failed the market guard: 5
Paper trading only. A rejection is a recorded decision, not a missing update. · Open rejection log
Top 10 Rejected Leans
Ranked by model expected value from the latest scan. These are not tips. They failed at least one public gate, shown in the final column.
| Rank | Match | Market | Selection | Odds | Edge | EV | Why rejected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Racing Santander v CadizSpain Segunda División | 1x2 | Away win | 10.18 | 0.8% | 8.2% | edge below threshold, long 1X2 needs named catalyst, market guard failed |
| 2 | Cordoba v HuescaSpain Segunda División | 1x2 | Away win | 5.75 | 0.9% | 5.1% | edge below threshold, long 1X2 needs named catalyst, market guard failed |
| 3 | Leganes v MirandesSpain Segunda División | over_under_2_5 | Over | 1.93 | 2.0% | 3.8% | edge below threshold |
| 4 | Zaragoza v MalagaSpain Segunda División | over_under_2_5 | Under | 1.94 | 1.9% | 3.7% | edge below threshold |
| 5 | Almeria v ValladolidSpain Segunda División | 1x2 | Draw | 5.25 | 0.5% | 2.8% | edge below threshold, long 1X2 needs named catalyst |
| 6 | Deportivo La Coruna v Las PalmasSpain Segunda División | over_under_2_5 | Under | 1.92 | 1.3% | 2.4% | edge below threshold |
| 7 | Castellón v EibarSpain Segunda División | 1x2 | Away win | 5.50 | 0.4% | 2.3% | edge below threshold, long 1X2 needs named catalyst, market guard failed |
| 8 | Racing Santander v CadizSpain Segunda División | over_under_2_5 | Under | 2.62 | 0.6% | 1.6% | edge below threshold |
| 9 | Racing Santander v CadizSpain Segunda División | 1x2 | Draw | 5.20 | 0.2% | 1.2% | edge below threshold, long 1X2 needs named catalyst |
| 10 | Castellón v EibarSpain Segunda División | 1x2 | Draw | 4.70 | 0.2% | 1.1% | edge below threshold, long 1X2 needs named catalyst |
Recent Settled Archive
No current paper tips are live today. These are older settled paper trades kept for the public record, not fresh signals.
Tottenham v Leeds
Home DNB at 1.48. Post-review Spurs-side counter-signal. The straight 1X2 model overreacted to Tottenham injuries, but Spurs are in a relegation survival spot and Leeds are not under the same pressure. The cleaner expression is Tottenham draw-no-bet / Asian handicap 0 rather than Tottenham outright. Paper trading only; this does not cancel the existing Leeds away-win paper tip. Settled 1-1: draw-no-bet pushed, so no profit or loss.
Spartak Moscow v Rubin
Draw at 4.28. Spartak Moscow v Rubin: Draw flagged by the regular-football market-consensus scan. Best available API-Football snapshot price was 4.28 at 1xBet; consensus fair probability was 27.9%. Paper trading only. Post-publication note: kept in the public record. This came from the first experimental regular-football memory scan; league scope and away-win guards were tightened after review. Settled 2-1: lost for -10.00u.
Nizhny Novgorod v CSKA Moscow
Draw at 3.50. Nizhny Novgorod v CSKA Moscow: Draw flagged by the regular-football market-consensus scan. Best available API-Football snapshot price was 3.50 at 1xBet; consensus fair probability was 32.9%. Paper trading only. Post-publication note: kept in the public record. This came from the first experimental regular-football memory scan; league scope and away-win guards were tightened after review. Settled 1-2: lost for -10.00u.
Dynamo v FC Krasnodar
Draw at 4.32. Dynamo v FC Krasnodar: Draw flagged by the regular-football market-consensus scan. Best available API-Football snapshot price was 4.32 at 1xBet; consensus fair probability was 27.6%. Paper trading only. Post-publication note: kept in the public record. This came from the first experimental regular-football memory scan; league scope and away-win guards were tightened after review. Settled 2-1: lost for -10.00u.
Latest News Signals
Team-news and football RSS items matched to watched games.
Malaga: H. Abaida Missing Fixture - Jumpers knee
Malaga list H. Abaida as missing fixture for Zaragoza v Malaga: Jumpers knee.
Gilmour ruled out of World Cup - could Man Utd's Fletcher replace him?
Scotland midfielder Billy Gilmour is ruled out of the World Cup after picking up a knee injury during Saturday's 4-1 friendly win over Curacao.
Scotland injury blow as Gilmour ruled out of World Cup
Scotland midfielder Billy Gilmour has been ruled out of the World Cup after suffering a knee injury in the win over Curacao.
Team Memory
Classified signals carried forward into future match review.
Malaga
Malaga: H. Abaida Missing Fixture - Jumpers knee
Scotland
Gilmour ruled out of World Cup - could Man Utd's Fletcher replace him?
Scotland
Scotland injury blow as Gilmour ruled out of World Cup