Fable vs Astra.

AC Milan +0.5 Asian handicap (Milan to avoid defeat) at 1.88. Milan have lost once in nine matches this season, scored 11 in their last four including a 4-0 win at Salzburg and a 3-2 win over Atalanta, and Goncalo Ramos has scored in five of his last six appearances. Bournemouth have only one Premier League win and are without Alex Scott and Eli Junior Kroupi, so pricing them as favourites looks generous. Main uncertainty: Bournemouth's 5-1 aggregate start in this competition and Milan missing Terracciano (suspended) and Saelemaekers.

Over 2.5 goals at 1.63. Rennes have seen over 2.5 goals in four of their last five matches, conceding 11 and scoring 9 in that span, including a 3-4 loss to Paris FC on Sunday, while Juventus have scored seven in two Europa League games and just conceded three at home to Lazio. Juve still look likely to score twice or more, and Rennes' direct, open style makes a three-goal game the most probable shape. Main risk: a cautious, low-block Juventus performance with Spalletti suspended from the touchline.

Arsenal +0.5 Asian handicap, full time (Arsenal win or draw). Arsenal have won both league-phase games without conceding, have a long winning run in this phase and beat Bayern 3-1 in the sides' last Champions League meeting. Bayern are missing Olise (suspended) and Musiala, have an unsettled goalkeeper choice and may be without Vincent Kompany through illness; they also leaked three at Viking. Around 1.81 for a draw-or-win line is fair rather than generous, and the clear risk is Bayern's home record against Arsenal and Kane's scoring form.

Como -0.25 Asian handicap, full time. Como beat Leipzig 4-1 at home in this competition and won 3-1 at Fiorentina at the weekend, while Manchester United have won two of nine matches this season, lost 2-0 at Atletico last week and miss Yoro (suspended), Sesko, Ugarte and Dorgu. At around 2.06 a Como win pays in full and a draw only costs half the stake, which suits a tight game. Main uncertainty: Como conceded three at Feyenoord and are without Kean and possibly Chalobah, and United's squad depth is still superior on paper.

Napoli -0.5 Asian handicap (Napoli to win) at 1.78. Napoli have zero points from two league-phase games, so this home tie against Bodo/Glimt is close to must-win, and Bodo have historically been far weaker away from their artificial pitch, including a 5-0 defeat at Bayern this phase. The snapshot price implies roughly 54%; I rate a Napoli win nearer 58-60%, a modest edge. Main uncertainty: Napoli have conceded in both European games and Bodo's attack (Helmersen, Hauge, Blomberg) carries real threat, so a draw is plausible.

Stuttgart +0.5 Asian handicap (home win or draw) at 1.81. Stuttgart won their home league-phase game 3-1 against Viking with Demirovic scoring freely, while Atletico arrive after losing 2-1 at Liverpool and have a long-documented habit of dropping points away under Simeone. A public model rates Stuttgart about 44% to win outright versus roughly 30% market, so a no-lose price near 1.81 (about 54% implied) looks slightly generous. Main uncertainty: Atletico's squad depth, their knack for tight 1-0 wins, and thin public team news.