Current Decision
No bet now. Next kickoff watch: Belgium v Iran Under 2.5; record only if a real bookmaker reaches 2.198+.
Not ready for income staking: 0 actual placements; broad positive-EV backtest ROI -3.1%; 0 settled staked live recommendations; default 5% EV gate has 6 historical bets
Every-game forced card
This card deliberately forces one pick per upcoming priced fixture. It is not the actual bookmaker ledger.
| Match | Market | Selection | Seen | Needed | Model | EV | Stake | Status | Source and rationale |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Belgium v Iran 2026-06-21 19:00:00 UT | Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 2.12 | 2.113+ | 47.3% | 0.3% | 0.005u | FORCED_POSITIVE_EV | The Odds API soccer_fifa_world_cup: Matchbook stress probability 47.3%; price 2.12; conservative EV 0.3%; break-even odds 2.113; bet odds 2.198 for 4% EV; recommendation no_bet_rechecked_price; fresh price check from The Odds API soccer_fifa_world_cup: Matchbook (A... |
| Uruguay v Cape Verde 2026-06-21 22:00:00 UT | Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 2.32 | 2.014+ | 49.6% | 15.2% | 0.029u | FORCED_POSITIVE_EV | The Odds API soccer_fifa_world_cup: BetOnline.ag stress probability 49.6%; price 2.32; conservative EV 15.2%; break-even odds 2.014; bet odds 2.096 for 4% EV; recommendation no_bet_integer_stake_floor; fresh price check from The Odds API soccer_fifa_world_cup: BetOnli... |
| New Zealand v Egypt 2026-06-22 01:00:00 UT | Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 1.8 | 1.995+ | 50.1% | -9.8% | 0.001u | FORCED_WEAK_OR_NEGATIVE_EV | The Odds API soccer_fifa_world_cup: Unibet (SE) stress probability 50.1%; price 1.80; conservative EV -9.8%; break-even odds 1.995; bet odds 2.076 for 4% EV; recommendation no_bet_rechecked_price; fresh price check from The Odds API soccer_fifa_world_cup: Unibet (SE)... |
| Argentina v Austria 2026-06-22 17:00:00 UT | Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 2.02 | 2.256+ | 44.3% | -10.4% | 0.001u | FORCED_WEAK_OR_NEGATIVE_EV | The Odds API soccer_fifa_world_cup: Matchbook stress probability 44.3%; price 2.02; conservative EV -10.4%; break-even odds 2.256; bet odds 2.347 for 4% EV; recommendation no_bet_rechecked_price; fresh price check from The Odds API soccer_fifa_world_cup: Matchbook... |
| France v Iraq 2026-06-22 21:00:00 UT | Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 3.3 | 3.336+ | 30.0% | -1.1% | 0.001u | FORCED_WEAK_OR_NEGATIVE_EV | The Odds API soccer_fifa_world_cup: Betsson stress probability 30.0%; price 3.30; conservative EV -1.1%; break-even odds 3.336; bet odds 3.469 for 4% EV; recommendation no_bet_rechecked_price; fresh price check from The Odds API soccer_fifa_world_cup: Betsson (AP... |
Proof-only candidates
| Match | Market | Selection | Seen | Needed | Model | EV | Cap | Source and rationale |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| No proof-only candidates cleared the live gate. | ||||||||
Price watch
| Match | Market | Selection | Seen | Needed | Model | EV | Source and blocker |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Belgium v Iran 2026-06-21 19:00:00 UT | Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 2.12 | 2.198+ | 47.3% | 0.3% | The Odds API soccer_fifa_world_cup: Matchbook (API) No stake now; watch for 2.198+ model price trigger and complete price, then rerun. stress probability 47.3%; price 2.12; conservative EV 0.3%; break-even odds 2.113; bet odds 2.198 for 4% EV; recommendation no_bet_reche... |
| Uruguay v Cape Verde 2026-06-21 22:00:00 UT | Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 1.67 | 2.456+ | 42.4% | -29.3% | The Odds API soccer_fifa_world_cup: Unibet (SE) (API) No stake now; watch for 2.456+ model price trigger and complete price, then rerun. stress probability 42.4%; price 1.67; conservative EV -29.3%; break-even odds 2.361; bet odds 2.456 for 4% EV; recommendation no_bet_rec... |
| New Zealand v Egypt 2026-06-22 01:00:00 UT | Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 1.8 | 2.076+ | 50.1% | -9.8% | The Odds API soccer_fifa_world_cup: Unibet (SE) (API) No stake now; watch for 2.076+ model price trigger and complete price, then rerun. stress probability 50.1%; price 1.80; conservative EV -9.8%; break-even odds 1.995; bet odds 2.076 for 4% EV; recommendation no_bet_rech... |
| New Zealand v Egypt 2026-06-22 01:00:00 UT | Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 2.13 | 2.513+ | 41.4% | -11.8% | The Odds API soccer_fifa_world_cup: GTbets (API) No stake now; watch for 2.513+ model price trigger and complete price, then rerun. stress probability 41.4%; price 2.13; conservative EV -11.8%; break-even odds 2.416; bet odds 2.513 for 4% EV; recommendation no_bet_rec... |
| Argentina v Austria 2026-06-22 17:00:00 UT | Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 2.02 | 2.347+ | 44.3% | -10.4% | The Odds API soccer_fifa_world_cup: Matchbook (API) No stake now; watch for 2.347+ model price trigger and complete price, then rerun. stress probability 44.3%; price 2.02; conservative EV -10.4%; break-even odds 2.256; bet odds 2.347 for 4% EV; recommendation no_bet_rec... |
| France v Iraq 2026-06-22 21:00:00 UT | Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 3.3 | 3.469+ | 30.0% | -1.1% | The Odds API soccer_fifa_world_cup: Betsson (API) No stake now; watch for 3.469+ model price trigger and complete price, then rerun. stress probability 30.0%; price 3.30; conservative EV -1.1%; break-even odds 3.336; bet odds 3.469 for 4% EV; recommendation no_bet_rech... |