Method
The model is built around discipline: collect the price, explain the signal, publish the timestamp, then let the record judge it.
Why This Exists
Most betting content skips the one thing that matters: whether the stated edge survives a public record. This project starts from the opposite end. Every tip is treated as a paper trade first, then judged on price movement, closing-line value and settled results.
- Model-led picks, not vibes-led picks.
- Odds and confidence recorded at publication time.
- Backtesting and live paper trading separated clearly.
- No automated betting and no hidden staking claims.
Conviction Backbone
1
Market priorBookmaker consensus is the anchor. Narrative cannot replace the market.
2
CalibrationHistorical odds buckets correct the prior and expose favourite-longshot bias.
3
News overlayTeam news can move a probability, but only within a capped range.
4
Totals firstRegular football auto-publication is limited to over/under 2.5 until Asian handicap history is available.