Backtest
Challenger model backtest
After the first bad public longshot day, this run compares alternative model shapes across 1X2, totals and Asian handicap. Diagnostic rows use closing movement, so they are research signals rather than live rules.
Results
| Strategy | Bets | Profit u | ROI | Wins | Losses | Pushes | Avg odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| naive 1x2 price gap | 21 | 17.27 | 82.2% | 13 | 8 | 0 | 3.076 |
| guarded 1x2 no draw longshots | 6 | -0.25 | -4.2% | 3 | 3 | 0 | 2.14 |
| strong favourite price shop | 18 | -0.27 | -1.5% | 10 | 8 | 0 | 1.699 |
| over 2 5 bucket 170 190 | 4867 | 24.79 | 0.5% | 2728 | 2139 | 0 | 1.794 |
| calibrated positive buckets | 5360 | 6.23 | 0.1% | 3029 | 2331 | 0 | 1.816 |
| totals price move hindsight (diagnostic) | 8538 | 91.16 | 1.1% | 4541 | 3997 | 0 | 1.926 |
| ah line move hindsight (diagnostic) | 8525 | 367.69 | 4.3% | 4487 | 3451 | 587 | 1.84 |
| ah close best price (diagnostic) | 169 | 34.28 | 20.3% | 89 | 67 | 13 | 2.169 |
Read
- The naive 1X2 price-gap model is not trustworthy. Even when it looks good historically, the sample is tiny and it is the exact failure mode that produced the bad day.
- Strong favourites are price-sensitive. They should usually route through handicap or draw-no-bet when the outright is awkward.
- Simple over/under buckets are cleaner than long 1X2, but they are not enough on their own.
- Asian handicap line movement is the strongest research signal here. It needs live opener storage before it becomes a public tip engine.
Backbone V2
- Store opener immediately for 1X2, totals and Asian handicap.
- Block 1X2 longshots unless there is news or systemic evidence.
- If the view is favourite vulnerability, test handicap/DNB first.
- Use totals only when price bucket and team/news profile agree.
- Publish rarely. No selection without a market expression that matches the thesis.
Raw report: challenger-model-backtest.md. Machine-readable data: challenger-model-backtest.json.