Model lab
Serious model lab
Rolling pre-match Poisson, Elo/form, capped hybrid market overlays, totals, Asian handicap and longshot guard models. No bets placed. Diagnostic rows use closing prices or closing movement.
Opening market log loss0.9991
Closing market log loss0.996
Live backboneRouter
Strategy Results
| Strategy | Type | Bets | P/L | ROI | W | L | Push | Avg odds | Max DD | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Diagnostic AH line movement | Diagnostic | 8525 | +367.69u | 4.3% | 4487 | 3451 | 587 | 1.84 | -36.02u | diagnostic |
| Diagnostic longshot with market move | Diagnostic | 965 | +68.45u | 7.1% | 238 | 727 | 0 | 4.635 | -38.73u | diagnostic |
| Diagnostic totals price movement | Diagnostic | 8720 | +96.08u | 1.1% | 4618 | 4102 | 0 | 1.937 | -128.25u | diagnostic |
| Elo/form guarded 1X2 | Live-test | 4344 | -173.95u | -4.0% | 1778 | 2566 | 0 | 2.409 | -224.65u | unstable |
| Hybrid market/model 1X2 capped | Live-test | 123 | -1.79u | -1.5% | 46 | 77 | 0 | 2.639 | -17.81u | unstable |
| Hybrid market/Poisson AH opening | Live-test | 291 | +15.39u | 5.3% | 144 | 125 | 22 | 2.0 | -12.24u | candidate |
| Hybrid market/Poisson totals | Live-test | 688 | +5.88u | 0.9% | 329 | 359 | 0 | 2.126 | -27.89u | unstable |
| Market price-shop 1X2 | Live-test | 21 | +17.27u | 82.2% | 13 | 8 | 0 | 3.076 | -3.87u | exploratory |
| Poisson AH opening line | Live-test | 18119 | -239.74u | -1.3% | 8467 | 8440 | 1212 | 1.969 | -276.97u | reject |
| Poisson guarded 1X2 | Live-test | 4879 | -248.95u | -5.1% | 1753 | 3126 | 0 | 2.771 | -258.53u | unstable |
| Poisson totals value | Live-test | 6994 | -199.77u | -2.9% | 3468 | 3526 | 0 | 1.981 | -204.55u | reject |
| Rough-patch fade proxy AH | Live-test | 420 | -30.79u | -7.3% | 176 | 226 | 18 | 1.964 | -43.30u | unstable |
Top Candidates
- Hybrid market/Poisson AH opening: 291 bets, ROI 5.3%. Live-test candidate.
- Diagnostic longshot with market move: 965 bets, ROI 7.1%. Diagnostic only.
- Diagnostic AH line movement: 8525 bets, ROI 4.3%. Diagnostic only.
Recommendation
No standalone live model earns promotion yet. Promote the market router: store openers, paper-trade Asian handicap and DNB first, keep longshot catalyst gate, and use Poisson/Elo only as capped overlays.
- Poisson and Elo are useful overlays, not market-overruling brains.
- Asian handicap line movement is still the best research direction.
- The bot must store openers and current lines live before AH movement becomes a public tip engine.
- Longshot catalyst gate stays.
Raw report: serious-model-lab.md. Machine-readable data: serious-model-lab.json.