Current Decision
No bet now. Next kickoff watch: Germany v Curaçao Over 2.5; record only if a real bookmaker reaches 1.607+.
Not ready for income staking: 0 actual placements; broad positive-EV backtest ROI -3.1%; 0 settled staked live recommendations; default 5% EV gate has 6 historical bets
Forced every-game card
This card deliberately forces one pick per upcoming priced fixture. It is not the actual bookmaker ledger.
| Match | Market | Selection | Seen | Needed | Model | EV | Stake | Status | Source and rationale |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Germany v Curaçao 2026-06-14 17:00:00 UT | Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 4.6 | 3.669+ | 27.3% | 25.4% | 0.018u | FORCED_POSITIVE_EV | The Odds API soccer_fifa_world_cup: William Hill stress probability 27.3%; price 4.60; conservative EV 25.4%; break-even odds 3.669; bet odds 3.816 for 4% EV; recommendation no_bet_integer_stake_floor; fresh price check from The Odds API soccer_fifa_world_cup: William... |
| Netherlands v Japan 2026-06-14 20:00:00 UT | Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 1.85 | 1.883+ | 53.1% | -1.8% | 0.001u | FORCED_WEAK_OR_NEGATIVE_EV | The Odds API soccer_fifa_world_cup: Unibet (SE) stress probability 53.1%; price 1.85; conservative EV -1.8%; break-even odds 1.883; bet odds 1.959 for 4% EV; recommendation no_bet_rechecked_price; fresh price check from The Odds API soccer_fifa_world_cup: Unibet (SE)... |
| Ivory Coast v Ecuador 2026-06-14 23:00:00 UT | Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 3.05 | 2.56+ | 39.1% | 19.2% | 0.023u | FORCED_POSITIVE_EV | The Odds API soccer_fifa_world_cup: BetAnything stress probability 39.1%; price 3.05; conservative EV 19.2%; break-even odds 2.560; bet odds 2.662 for 4% EV; recommendation no_bet_integer_stake_floor; fresh price check from The Odds API soccer_fifa_world_cup: BetAnyt... |
| Sweden v Tunisia 2026-06-15 02:00:00 UT | Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 1.79 | 1.926+ | 51.9% | -7.0% | 0.001u | FORCED_WEAK_OR_NEGATIVE_EV | The Odds API soccer_fifa_world_cup: Coolbet stress probability 51.9%; price 1.79; conservative EV -7.0%; break-even odds 1.926; bet odds 2.003 for 4% EV; recommendation no_bet_rechecked_price; fresh price check from The Odds API soccer_fifa_world_cup: Coolbet (AP... |
| Spain v Cape Verde 2026-06-15 16:00:00 UT | Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 1.4 | 1.568+ | 63.8% | -10.7% | 0.001u | FORCED_WEAK_OR_NEGATIVE_EV | The Odds API soccer_fifa_world_cup: Betsson stress probability 63.8%; price 1.40; conservative EV -10.7%; break-even odds 1.568; bet odds 1.631 for 4% EV; recommendation no_bet_rechecked_price; fresh price check from The Odds API soccer_fifa_world_cup: Betsson (A... |
| Belgium v Egypt 2026-06-15 19:00:00 UT | Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 2.06 | 2.256+ | 44.3% | -8.7% | 0.001u | FORCED_WEAK_OR_NEGATIVE_EV | The Odds API soccer_fifa_world_cup: Matchbook stress probability 44.3%; price 2.06; conservative EV -8.7%; break-even odds 2.256; bet odds 2.347 for 4% EV; recommendation no_bet_rechecked_price; fresh price check from The Odds API soccer_fifa_world_cup: Matchbook (... |
| Saudi Arabia v Uruguay 2026-06-15 22:00:00 UT | Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 2.12 | 2.133+ | 46.9% | -0.6% | 0.001u | FORCED_WEAK_OR_NEGATIVE_EV | The Odds API soccer_fifa_world_cup: BetOnline.ag stress probability 46.9%; price 2.12; conservative EV -0.6%; break-even odds 2.133; bet odds 2.218 for 4% EV; recommendation no_bet_rechecked_price; fresh price check from The Odds API soccer_fifa_world_cup: BetOnline.a... |
Forced-card record rules
| Record bucket | forced_every_game |
|---|---|
| Actual bookmaker ledger | unchanged unless a real slip is recorded |
| Positive EV stake | capped fractional Kelly from the model row |
| Weak/negative EV stake | 0.001u tracking stake only |
| Selection rule | highest expected value market per upcoming fixture |