Bet ledger

Under 2 match goals at about 2.11 for Ukraine v Hungary at the neutral City Arena in Trnava. Hungary's three group games finished 0-1, 0-0 and 1-0, and Ukraine's were 1-0, 0-0 and 0-3, so five of six involved games had at most one goal. Both teams are depleted: Ukraine lack suspended Matviyenko and striker Sikan plus injured Mykolenko, while Hungary miss Kerkez and Volla. A push at exactly two goals cushions the price. Main risk: Ukraine's makeshift defence leaking as it did against Northern Ireland.

Italy -1 Asian handicap at about 1.62 against Turkiye in League A. Turkiye are bottom with zero points after 0-1 to France, 1-4 at home to Italy and 0-3 to Belgium, and now lose Arda Guler and Baris Alper Yilmaz to suspension on top of injured Calhanoglu and Yildiz, stripping most of their creativity. Italy drew 1-1 with France and beat this opponent by three goals last week. A one-goal Italy win refunds the stake. Main uncertainty is Italy's own lack of firepower without Raspadori.

Under 3 goals offers a refund at exactly three and looks attractive at 2.09. France's first three group games finished 1-0, 1-0 and 1-1; Belgium conceded only once across theirs. Reported absences of Mbappe, De Bruyne and Tielemans further support a restrained scoring outlook. The main risks are France's defensive absences, Belgium's recent attacking output and unconfirmed lineups; the short run of low scores is not conclusive.

Greece +1 (full-time Asian handicap). Greece lead Group A2 with 7 points from three games, including a historic 1-0 win over Germany and a 2-1 win over Serbia, and have not lost at home this campaign. Germany, under a new manager and without Musiala and Havertz, have scored only three goals in three Nations League matches. This pick wins unless Germany win by two or more, with a push on a one-goal German win. Pinnacle had drifted from 1.666 to 1.60 by this morning, so the price is fair rather than generous. Risks: Tzolis is doubtful for Greece, and Germany's underlying quality could still produce a comfortable win.

Portugal -0.75 (full-time Asian handicap). Portugal are a perfect 3-0 in Group A4 (1-0 at Wales, 2-1 at Norway, 4-2 at Denmark) and lead by six points, with the manager openly targeting a win to seal qualification. Norway have lost both matches since beating Denmark and are benching goalkeeper Nyland after his error in Oslo. The pick pays in full on a two-goal Portuguese win and half on a one-goal win. Pinnacle still shows 1.775, steady since the packet snapshot. Main uncertainty: Ronaldo's departure from the squad and Norway's strong first hour in the reverse fixture show the visitors can trouble Portugal.

Ireland -0.25 Asian handicap at 1.869 is my strongest modest-confidence choice: they beat Israel 3-0 last week and followed with a 2-2 draw against Austria, while Israel have scored once in three group games. The price offers reasonable compensation for a draw costing half the pick. The main uncertainties are Ireland's defensive absences, possible rotation and the neutral venue in Serbia; this is a small perceived edge, not a high-confidence forecast.

Spain are on nine consecutive wins, having beaten England 3-2 and Croatia 4-1 in this group, with Laporte, Rodri and Olmo back and Yamal on three goals. Czechia lost 2-1 to Croatia and 2-0 to England, sit on zero points, and are without Sulc (suspended) and probably Karabec (injured). Pinnacle's -2.75 line shortened from 1.77 to 1.73 overnight, so the market leans the same way. Uncertainty: Spain need a three-goal margin for a half win and four for a full win, and a comfortable 2-0 loses outright.

Croatia–England over 3 full-time goals at 2.07 offers an appealing return with a refund on exactly three goals. Croatia conceded in 11 of their last 12 internationals, while six of England's last seven matches exceeded 2.5 goals; their June meeting finished 4-2. These trends support a modest preference for goals, not a high-confidence edge. Unconfirmed lineups, possible tactical caution and England's recent clean sheet are the main uncertainties. Minimum acceptable odds: 1.95.

Sweden +0.25 Asian handicap at Bosnia and Herzegovina. Sweden have won both group games (2-1 v Romania, 3-1 v Poland) with Gyokeres scoring in each, while Bosnia drew 0-0 in Poland before a 4-2 win over a leaky Romania. The quarter-ball line pays in full on a Sweden win and half on a draw, which suits a tight top-of-group meeting where the away side is the form team. Price near 1.60 is reasonable rather than generous. Main uncertainty: Isak has withdrawn with a minor injury and Bosnia report a fully fit squad with strong home support.

Under 3 match goals, France v Italy. France have opened the Zidane era with two 1-0 wins and no goals conceded, and are without Mbappe (injured) and Konate (knee), which points to a controlled, low-tempo home game rather than a shootout. Italy lost 0-2 to Belgium in their last away-from-home-form test and have Raspadori unavailable. Around 1.92 for under 3 (push on exactly three) is fair-to-attractive given both defences' recent records. Main uncertainty: Italy's 4-1 win over Turkiye shows real attacking punch, and the November 2024 meeting finished 3-1.

Away -1 Asian handicap (Norway) at about 1.68. Wales sit bottom of League A Group 4 with no points and no goals after losses to Portugal and Denmark, are winless in six overall, and are without Wilson, Broadhead, Rodon, Darlow, Colwill and others. Norway beat Denmark 3-2, have Haaland fit and scoring, and a two-goal margin pays in full with a push if they win by one. Main uncertainty: Odegaard's ankle, Sorloth out, and Wales' home crowd in Cardiff.

Home +0.5 Asian handicap (Ireland win or draw) at about 1.75. Ireland are unbeaten in eight at the Aviva and beat Israel 3-0 in this group, while Austria arrive without Wanner and Veratschnig after injuries in Kosovo and with Gregoritsch doubtful. Racing Post and Sports Mole both lean to a shared-points, both-score game, which pays here. The price implies roughly 57%, a small edge on my read. Main uncertainty: Austria's superior quality and Ireland's 0-1 loss to Kosovo.

Serbia +2.25 at 1.781 offers useful protection: a two-goal defeat still produces a half-win. UEFA reports that Serbia lost both opening matches 2-1, while Germany remain winless under Klopp. Bundesliga confirms extensive German squad changes and Schlotterbeck’s injury withdrawal, adding uncertainty to a large winning margin. The price looks attractive for that protection, although Serbia conceded eight big chances across those opening games according to Sports Mole; their defensive vulnerability is the main risk.

Under 2 match goals at 2.22 for Scotland v Switzerland at Hampden. Scotland drew 0-0 with Slovenia under new coach Pocognoli and are struggling for goals, with McBurnie and Bowie the likely front pair behind a back three. Switzerland beat North Macedonia 3-0 but lose Breel Embolo to suspension, and away games in Glasgow are usually cagey. A 0-0 or single-goal result pays in full and exactly two goals refunds, so the price looks attractive; the main risk is Switzerland's Amdouni-led attack opening Scotland up early.

Spain -1.5 Asian handicap at 1.62 in Seville. Spain came from behind to beat England 3-2 at Wembley, are on a five-match winning run and a long unbeaten streak in European fixtures, and beat this opponent 3-0 at Euro 2024. Croatia won 2-1 in Czechia but travel without Baturina and Juranovic (illness) and Erlic (injury), with an inexperienced back line around Gvardiol. Spain's attacking depth (Yamal, Williams, Olmo, Torres) makes a two-goal margin likely; the uncertainty is Croatia's midfield craft with Modric and Kovacic keeping it tight.

Slovakia -1.5 Asian handicap at 1.89. Slovakia opened this window with a 2-0 home win over Moldova, have won three of their last four and ten of fourteen at home, with Lobotka anchoring midfield and Strelec, Haraslin and Kapralik in attack. Kazakhstan drew 1-1 with the Faroe Islands, are winless in three, and have not scored more than once in seven straight away games. A two-goal home win is priced just under evens, which looks fair-to-generous; the risk is a narrow 1-0 or 2-1 that leaves this handicap short.

Under 3 goals in Turkiye v Italy. Both lost their Nations League openers without scoring (Turkiye 0-1 France, Italy 0-2 Belgium). Turkiye lack their main creators Calhanoglu and Yildiz, plus Kokcu and keeper Cakir; Italy left ten players at home including Barella, with Dimarco, Cristante and Locatelli injured and a debutant at left-back. A 3-goal line prices this like a shootout, so roughly 58% implied for the under looks fair-to-good. Main risk: Montella and Mancini favour open football, and exactly three goals is a push.

Belgium +0.5 covers a home win or draw. UEFA confirms Mbappé is absent and highlights De Bruyne's strong display in Belgium's opening win over Italy. At 2.03, the break-even probability is 49.3%; I judge Belgium's chance of avoiding defeat modestly higher with home advantage and France missing their captain. Confidence is moderate: France have eight wins and a draw in their last nine away matches, and starting lineups remain unconfirmed. Minimum acceptable price: 2.00.

Under 3 match goals. Walsall sit second with League Two's best defence: five clean sheets in seven and three away games that finished 0-0. Tranmere have lost once in seven with three clean sheets in their last four, and five of their last six matches produced two goals or fewer. Previews from Squawka and LiveScore both lean 0-0. At 1.574 the price implies roughly 63% and a three-goal game refunds. Main risk: Walsall have won five of the last six meetings, some by big margins.

Over 3 match goals, modest confidence. Wycombe have scored in every game yet conceded freely: their last six league matches finished 1-1, 1-5, 1-2, 3-3, 3-2 and 1-0, four of them with four-plus goals. Reading have scored 11 in their last four league games and lost 4-3 at Luton, with Jack Marriott on eight goals in six. Sports Mole predicts 2-2. At 2.19 a push on exactly three goals limits downside. Main uncertainty: Reading miss Rinomhota, Savage and Dorsett, and Wycombe's interim boss may tighten up.

Over 3 full-time goals in Plymouth–Burton at 2.06 is my strongest researched choice, with a 2.00 minimum. Plymouth scored ten goals across three consecutive league wins; Burton have conceded in every league match and reportedly lack defender Toby Sibbick through international duty. Exactly three goals returns the pick. The price offers modest appeal, but confidence is limited: lineups remain unconfirmed, and a controlled Plymouth win with little Burton attacking contribution could leave the total short.

Over 2.75 goals in Villarreal v Levante. Both sides sit 14th and 15th with porous defences: Levante's last two league games produced 2-4 and 5-2 scorelines, and Villarreal just won 3-1 after a four-match losing run. Villarreal miss Foyth at the back and Levante are without Etta Eyong, which may blunt their attack. Around 1.57 for three-plus goals is a modest price, so the edge is small; a tight, nervous relegation-zone contest is the main uncertainty.

Over 3.25 goals in Marseille v PSG. Marseille have conceded ten goals in their last four matches and lost three straight, while PSG's defence is leaking around 1.5 goals a game this season against 0.85 last term, with Hakimi a major doubt. Both attacks are functioning (Gouiri four league goals, Ferran Torres six). The last two Classiques at the Velodrome finished 0-5 and 1-0, so the price near 1.76 carries real variance; a cagey derby is the main risk.

Manchester City -1.5 Asian handicap v Sunderland. City arrive joint-top on four straight league wins with a clean sheet in each, and are unbeaten in all 14 home league meetings with Sunderland. Sunderland are without Diarra and Mundle through injury and Reinildo through suspension. Around evens for a two-goal home margin looks fair to slightly generous given City's scoring rate. Main uncertainty: Foden remains suspended and Sunderland are the one side Haaland has never scored against.

Under 2.25 full-time goals at 1.666 looks reasonable given AS reports just 12 shots on target for Getafe and 10 for Málaga across six league games, with three goals each. Exactly two goals produces a half-win on this line. My minimum is 1.60. Confidence is modest: Málaga have conceded 11 goals, defensive absences could undermine the low-scoring case, and confirmed lineups are unavailable.