Bet ledger

Bayern Munich have lost just five of the last 54 meetings with Freiburg, have not lost a league game there since 2015 and won the most recent fixture 6-2. Pinnacle's -1.25 line at 1.826 implies roughly a 55% chance of a two-goal margin, which their recent record against this opponent supports. Main uncertainty: the available previews of this pairing date from April, so current-season team news for the 16:30 kickoff could not be confirmed.

Brighton arrive 3rd on 16 points with five straight wins, a 5-0 rout of Crystal Palace last out and only two goals conceded in five, while Liverpool sit 5th having shipped 10 in their last five and are without Szoboszlai and Frimpong. Pinnacle still prices the game near even on the quarter-ball line, so Brighton +0.25 at 2.00 (draw returns half) looks a fair price. Main uncertainty: Anfield home strength and a seven-game sample.

Under 2.5 goals at 1.671 requires roughly a 59.8% success rate. Athletic have drawn three of their last four league games, while Sports Mole reports attacking absences for Guruzeta and Sancet; eight of the last ten meetings listed by La Liga Central finished below this line. That supports a modest lean toward a low-scoring match. Confidence is limited by reported suspensions for defenders Laporte and Djene, plus Getafe's midweek 5–2 defeat. Minimum acceptable odds: 1.65.

Arsenal v Everton, Under 2.5 goals. Arsenal have conceded five in seven league games and their last two wins were 2-1 and 1-0; Everton have scored eight and conceded seven, with four draws, and lost 0-2 to Chelsea last week. Combined games average under 2.3 goals and a goals model projects roughly 1.3 v 0.7 expected goals. Near-even money for a sub-2.5 total between the league's two meanest defensive records looks fair-to-good value. Main uncertainty: Saka is a 50% doubt, and a quick Arsenal opener could open the game up.

Chelsea -0.5 Asian handicap v Tottenham. Chelsea sit fourth with 17 goals in seven and have won back-to-back league games including 2-0 at Everton; Tottenham are 16th with one win, six goals scored and only three points on the road form line, having just climbed out of the bottom three by beating promoted Coventry. Around 1.88 for a straight home win against a side twelve places lower is attractive. Uncertainty: Chelsea are missing Reece James, Gittens and goalkeeper Martinez, and London derbies are volatile.

West Brom -0.5 Asian handicap at Preston. Preston are bottom of the Championship with one win and nine defeats from eleven, nine scored and 24 conceded; West Brom are fifth with six wins and a 15-12 goal record. A price above 2.0 for an away win over the division's worst side is generous relative to the gap in form. Uncertainty: this is the lowest-confidence of the three because I found no fresh team news for either club, and bottom teams often raise their level at home.

Chelsea -0.5 requires a home win. Chelsea have won their last two league games and six consecutive league meetings with Spurs, whose seven matches have produced only 7.5 xG. At 1.877, the break-even probability is 53.3%; Opta's preview gives conflicting estimates of 53.6% and 55.0%, suggesting only a modest edge. Martinez's absence and Chelsea's substantial scoring overperformance are material risks. I require at least 1.87.

Torino -0.25 Asian handicap at 1.847. Torino have 10 points from their last five (3-0 at Parma, 2-1 v Udinese) and have conceded five fewer goals than at this stage last season. Monza have taken only 11 points from their last 23 top-flight away games and have not beaten Torino in six Serie A meetings; Pessina and Ziolkowski are out. At -0.25 a draw costs half the stake, which is the main downside, and Monza's Varela (six goals in six) plus Torino missing Rodriguez and Ilkhan keep confidence modest.

Over 2.75 goals at 1.653. Middlesbrough are third and unbeaten in nine, but have conceded two or more in six of their last seven competitive games; their last six league matches produced 25 goals (4-3, 2-2, 2-2, 1-0, 3-2, 2-2) and five went over 3.5. Bolton's last six brought 20 goals (3-1 at Wolves, 4-3 at Norwich). Boro have two league clean sheets all season, Bolton three. Main risk: Bolton's 0-0 at Southampton shows they can sit in, and a 2-goal game loses in full.

AC Milan +0.5 Asian handicap (Milan to avoid defeat) at 1.88. Milan have lost once in nine matches this season, scored 11 in their last four including a 4-0 win at Salzburg and a 3-2 win over Atalanta, and Goncalo Ramos has scored in five of his last six appearances. Bournemouth have only one Premier League win and are without Alex Scott and Eli Junior Kroupi, so pricing them as favourites looks generous. Main uncertainty: Bournemouth's 5-1 aggregate start in this competition and Milan missing Terracciano (suspended) and Saelemaekers.

Over 2.5 goals at 1.63. Rennes have seen over 2.5 goals in four of their last five matches, conceding 11 and scoring 9 in that span, including a 3-4 loss to Paris FC on Sunday, while Juventus have scored seven in two Europa League games and just conceded three at home to Lazio. Juve still look likely to score twice or more, and Rennes' direct, open style makes a three-goal game the most probable shape. Main risk: a cautious, low-block Juventus performance with Spalletti suspended from the touchline.

Arsenal +0.5 Asian handicap, full time (Arsenal win or draw). Arsenal have won both league-phase games without conceding, have a long winning run in this phase and beat Bayern 3-1 in the sides' last Champions League meeting. Bayern are missing Olise (suspended) and Musiala, have an unsettled goalkeeper choice and may be without Vincent Kompany through illness; they also leaked three at Viking. Around 1.81 for a draw-or-win line is fair rather than generous, and the clear risk is Bayern's home record against Arsenal and Kane's scoring form.

Como -0.25 Asian handicap, full time. Como beat Leipzig 4-1 at home in this competition and won 3-1 at Fiorentina at the weekend, while Manchester United have won two of nine matches this season, lost 2-0 at Atletico last week and miss Yoro (suspended), Sesko, Ugarte and Dorgu. At around 2.06 a Como win pays in full and a draw only costs half the stake, which suits a tight game. Main uncertainty: Como conceded three at Feyenoord and are without Kean and possibly Chalobah, and United's squad depth is still superior on paper.

Napoli -0.5 Asian handicap (Napoli to win) at 1.78. Napoli have zero points from two league-phase games, so this home tie against Bodo/Glimt is close to must-win, and Bodo have historically been far weaker away from their artificial pitch, including a 5-0 defeat at Bayern this phase. The snapshot price implies roughly 54%; I rate a Napoli win nearer 58-60%, a modest edge. Main uncertainty: Napoli have conceded in both European games and Bodo's attack (Helmersen, Hauge, Blomberg) carries real threat, so a draw is plausible.

Stuttgart +0.5 Asian handicap (home win or draw) at 1.81. Stuttgart won their home league-phase game 3-1 against Viking with Demirovic scoring freely, while Atletico arrive after losing 2-1 at Liverpool and have a long-documented habit of dropping points away under Simeone. A public model rates Stuttgart about 44% to win outright versus roughly 30% market, so a no-lose price near 1.81 (about 54% implied) looks slightly generous. Main uncertainty: Atletico's squad depth, their knack for tight 1-0 wins, and thin public team news.

Coventry +0.75 Asian handicap at Tottenham. Spurs are bottom on three points, winless after six, with three league goals scored and nine conceded; Bentancur is suspended and Simons, Odobert, Savio and Bergvall are injured. Coventry arrive on back-to-back wins including 4-1 over Newcastle, with Awoniyi back. The +0.75 line pays in full on a draw or Coventry win and half-loses only if Spurs win by one, yet 2.35 still prices Spurs as clear favourites. Uncertainty: Spurs' squad quality and home advantage, and Coventry have conceded 11 in six.

Cagliari draw-no-bet (away 0 Asian handicap) at Monza. Cagliari are 5th on 13 points, six scored and three conceded with three clean sheets, have won every away league game this season and beat Monza 3-0 last time. Monza are 16th with four points, 15 conceded, no clean sheets, and lose Lucchesi to suspension. At 2.15 with the draw refunded, the price implies under 47% for a Cagliari win, which looks short. Main uncertainty: Cagliari's low scoring makes a stalemate plausible, and the price is a 06:30 snapshot.

Lazio +0.75 at 2.18 looks attractive given their unbeaten six-match league start and three away wins with only one goal conceded. Juventus have won just one of their last four league games; Spalletti also confirmed recovery concerns after Thursday's Vigo trip and Thuram's absence. This handicap wins if Lazio avoid defeat and loses only half on a one-goal defeat. Confidence is modest: Juventus retain home advantage and dangerous forwards, lineups remain unconfirmed, and the supplied price could have moved.

Arsenal -0.75 Asian handicap at Nottingham Forest. Arsenal sit second having won five of six league games and come off a comeback win at Leeds; Forest are 15th with one win in six, lost 3-1 to Crystal Palace last week and have Igor Jesus and Savona out with captain Gibbs-White and Milenkovic doubtful. The -0.75 line pays in full on a two-goal win and half on a one-goal win, and 1.72 looks fair for a side that has dominated this matchup recently. Main risk: Saliba's absence and Forest's home resilience under a new manager producing a narrow draw.

Como -0.75 Asian handicap at Fiorentina. Fiorentina are second-bottom with one league win all season, have lost five of their last six, sacked Fabio Grosso after four games and were beaten by Como in the Coppa Italia weeks ago, their third straight home loss to this opponent. Como have 11 points and were unbeaten in ten before a narrow loss at Frosinone. Sports Mole predicts 1-2 Como, which would return half at 2.39, with a two-goal win paying in full. Main uncertainty: Como played at Feyenoord midweek and Moise Kean is short of fitness, so this is the lowest-confidence pick.

Brighton -0.75 Asian handicap versus Crystal Palace. Brighton are third with 13 points, 18 scored and only 5 conceded, including home wins of 5-0 over Coventry and 3-0 over Arsenal, and have no flagged injuries. Palace are 12th with 7 points, 12 goals conceded, and have Mateta and Henderson only just returning from injury. A goals-based model gives Brighton roughly an 80% win chance, so -0.75 at 1.59 offers value if Brighton win by two. Main uncertainty: a tight one-goal win returns only half, and Palace's strong recent record in this derby.

Over 3 match goals in Bayer Leverkusen versus SC Freiburg. Freiburg lead the Bundesliga with 14 goals scored in five games and have gone over 2.5 goals in 10 of their last 11; Leverkusen have also scored 14 but conceded 8, with a 4-3 win at Mainz, a 2-2 draw with Augsburg and a 0-4 Europa League loss in their last five. Both teams scored in nine of the last ten head-to-heads, including 3-3, 5-1 and 3-2 scorelines. The 3-goal line pushes on exactly three, limiting downside at 1.71. Main risk: Leverkusen's injury list (Kofane, Terrier, Ben Seghir) blunting their attack.

Roma -0.75 Asian handicap v Genoa. Roma are unbeaten in 13 Serie A games, have not lost a home league match in over ten months and concede 0.6 goals per game over their last five; a public model gives them a 60% win chance against 13.5% for Genoa, who have won one of their last 11 league games and lost 33 of the last 40 league visits to Rome. Around 1.69 for a win by two (full) or one (half) looks fair to slightly generous. Main uncertainty: Roma are without Malen, Cristante and Svilar and played a draining Champions League tie in midweek.

Lens -0.75 Asian handicap at Troyes. Promoted Troyes have lost four straight (0-2, 0-2, 0-2, 2-6), failed to score in their last three, concede the second-most goals in Ligue 1 and are winless in 20 home league games; Lens have won five of the last six meetings, just beat Lyon 2-1 and have Thauvin with three goals and four assists in six games. At around 2.16 a two-goal Lens win pays in full and a one-goal win returns half, an attractive price for the gap between the sides. Main uncertainty: Lens have conceded six in three away games under a new coach and may miss Chavez and Sima.

Sevilla draw-no-bet at Levante. Sevilla have taken 13 points from 7 league games and are unbeaten away (wins at Athletic and Deportivo, draw at Espanyol), while Levante have 5 points from 6 and have conceded 12, including 4-2 and 3-1 defeats. With the stake refunded on a draw, a price near evens for the stronger, in-form side looks fair to slightly generous. Main uncertainty: Levante beat Sevilla twice last season and Sevilla's Lucas Stassin is a doubt, so this is a modest-confidence pick.