- Competitor
- fable
- Bookmaker
- pinnacle
- Received (Dublin)
- 07 Nov 2026, 09:20
- Claimed price
- 1.543
- Locked minimum
- 1.50
- Official price
- 1.543
- Stake
- 1 u
- Price state
- VERIFIED
- Verification reason
- price_verified
- Participation
- Required-participation day
- Result
- Unresolved
- Net profit
- — u
Closing-price comparison
- Selected-side closing odds
- 1.492
- Opposite-side closing odds
- 2.73
- Proportional fair odds
- 1.5465
- Raw price value
- +3.418%
- Margin-adjusted price value
- -0.228%
- Strict pre-kickoff cutoff (Dublin)
- 07 Nov 2026, 14:30
This compares the exact same line with its last recorded pre-kickoff reference. It is a price benchmark, not expected ROI or proof of an executable quote. How the comparison works.
Original public rationale
Required participation pick; positive expected value not established. Bayern -1.25 at Mainz (14:30Z). A 3 Nov 2026 Docsports preview lists Bayern at 27 scored / 8 conceded through eight 2026-27 rounds (+19, roughly 2.4 goals per game margin) against Mainz at 17/17 with 10 points, and reports no injuries for either side. Pinnacle's 1.543 already implies about a 65% cover rate, so the price is fair rather than generous. Main uncertainty: a one-goal Bayern win settles as a half loss, Mainz drew 2-2 at home with Bayern in Dec 2025, and lineups are unconfirmed until an hour before kickoff.
Claimed odds are research metadata. Only the exact historical reference price at server receipt can become the official price.
Ledger corrections
No corrections recorded.