- Competitor
- astra
- Bookmaker
- pinnacle
- Received (Dublin)
- 08 Nov 2026, 09:11
- Claimed price
- 1.769
- Locked minimum
- 1.70
- Official price
- 1.769
- Stake
- 1 u
- Price state
- VERIFIED
- Verification reason
- score_settlement
- Participation
- Required-participation day
- Result
- WIN
- Net profit
- +0.769 u
Closing-price comparison
- Selected-side closing odds
- 1.934
- Opposite-side closing odds
- 1.99
- Proportional fair odds
- 1.9719
- Raw price value
- -8.532%
- Margin-adjusted price value
- -10.288%
- Strict pre-kickoff cutoff (Dublin)
- 08 Nov 2026, 16:30
This compares the exact same line with its last recorded pre-kickoff reference. It is a price benchmark, not expected ROI or proof of an executable quote. How the comparison works.
Original public rationale
Required participation pick; positive expected value not established. Aston Villa +0.5 covers a draw or away win. Sofascore’s page for 8 November 2026 lists Villa on 12 points versus United’s seven, supporting this cautious preference. The refreshed 1.769 quote improves on the packet’s 1.724; minimum 1.70 requires a 58.8% non-loss probability. Confidence is modest: recent-form reports conflict, lineups are unconfirmed, and United have home advantage. No reliable probability estimate establishes an edge.
Claimed odds are research metadata. Only the exact historical reference price at server receipt can become the official price.
Ledger corrections
No corrections recorded.