{ "generated_at": "2026-06-21T07:32:00.796985+00:00", "slate_date": "2026-06-21", "rejected_count": 6, "summary": { "watch_rows": 6 }, "candidates": [ { "generated_at": "2026-06-21T07:32:00.796985+00:00", "match_id": "watch-2026-06-21t19-00-00z-belgium-v-iran-under-2-5", "kickoff": "2026-06-21T19:00:00+00:00", "competition": "FIFA World Cup 2026", "home_team": "Belgium", "away_team": "Iran", "market": "over_under_2_5", "selection": "UNDER", "decimal_odds": 2.12, "needed_odds": 2.198, "bookmaker": "The Odds API soccer_fifa_world_cup: Matchbook (API)", "model_probability": 0.4733, "implied_probability": 0.4716981132075471, "edge": 0.001601886792452878, "expected_value": 0.0034, "confidence": 0.5534, "rejection_reasons": [ "edge_below_required" ], "why": "No stake now; watch for 2.198+ model price trigger and complete price, then rerun. stress probability 47.3%; price 2.12; conservative EV 0.3%; break-even odds 2.113; bet odds 2.198 for 4% EV; recommendation no_bet_rechecked_price; fresh price check from The Odds API soccer_fifa_world_cup: Matchbook (API); news: injury: Belgium winger Doku ruled out of World Cup match against Iran due to illness - FlashScore UK | lineup: Belgium vs Iran – Predicted lineup and team news - Yahoo Sports | lineup: Belgium vs Iran Predicted Lineups &; decision: price below World Cup EV gate", "source": "The Odds API soccer_fifa_world_cup: Matchbook (API)" }, { "generated_at": "2026-06-21T07:32:00.796985+00:00", "match_id": "watch-2026-06-21t22-00-00z-uruguay-v-cape-verde-under-2-5", "kickoff": "2026-06-21T22:00:00+00:00", "competition": "FIFA World Cup 2026", "home_team": "Uruguay", "away_team": "Cape Verde", "market": "over_under_2_5", "selection": "UNDER", "decimal_odds": 1.67, "needed_odds": 2.456, "bookmaker": "The Odds API soccer_fifa_world_cup: Unibet (SE) (API)", "model_probability": 0.4236, "implied_probability": 0.5988023952095809, "edge": -0.17520239520958092, "expected_value": -0.2926, "confidence": 0.5, "rejection_reasons": [ "expected_value_not_positive" ], "why": "No stake now; watch for 2.456+ model price trigger and complete price, then rerun. stress probability 42.4%; price 1.67; conservative EV -29.3%; break-even odds 2.361; bet odds 2.456 for 4% EV; recommendation no_bet_rechecked_price; fresh price check from The Odds API soccer_fifa_world_cup: Unibet (SE) (API); news: injury: Team News: Uruguay vs. Cape Verde injury, suspension list, predicted XIs | World Cup 2026 - Sports Mole | lineup: Uruguay vs Cape Verde Predicted Lineups & Team News - Betfred Insights | lineup: Cape Verde predic; decision: price below World Cup EV gate", "source": "The Odds API soccer_fifa_world_cup: Unibet (SE) (API)" }, { "generated_at": "2026-06-21T07:32:00.796985+00:00", "match_id": "watch-2026-06-22t01-00-00z-new-zealand-v-egypt-under-2-5", "kickoff": "2026-06-22T01:00:00+00:00", "competition": "FIFA World Cup 2026", "home_team": "New Zealand", "away_team": "Egypt", "market": "over_under_2_5", "selection": "UNDER", "decimal_odds": 1.8, "needed_odds": 2.076, "bookmaker": "The Odds API soccer_fifa_world_cup: Unibet (SE) (API)", "model_probability": 0.5012, "implied_probability": 0.5555555555555556, "edge": -0.0543555555555556, "expected_value": -0.0978, "confidence": 0.5, "rejection_reasons": [ "expected_value_not_positive" ], "why": "No stake now; watch for 2.076+ model price trigger and complete price, then rerun. stress probability 50.1%; price 1.80; conservative EV -9.8%; break-even odds 1.995; bet odds 2.076 for 4% EV; recommendation no_bet_rechecked_price; fresh price check from The Odds API soccer_fifa_world_cup: Unibet (SE) (API); news: lineup: Egypt predicted lineup and team news vs New Zealand - Yahoo Sports Canada | lineup: New Zealand vs Egypt Predicted Lineups & Team News - Betfred Insights | availability: David Raya: ‘When you lose a Champions Lea; decision: price below World Cup EV gate", "source": "The Odds API soccer_fifa_world_cup: Unibet (SE) (API)" }, { "generated_at": "2026-06-21T07:32:00.796985+00:00", "match_id": "watch-2026-06-22t01-00-00z-new-zealand-v-egypt-over-2-5", "kickoff": "2026-06-22T01:00:00+00:00", "competition": "FIFA World Cup 2026", "home_team": "New Zealand", "away_team": "Egypt", "market": "over_under_2_5", "selection": "OVER", "decimal_odds": 2.13, "needed_odds": 2.513, "bookmaker": "The Odds API soccer_fifa_world_cup: GTbets (API)", "model_probability": 0.4139, "implied_probability": 0.4694835680751174, "edge": -0.055583568075117384, "expected_value": -0.1184, "confidence": 0.5, "rejection_reasons": [ "expected_value_not_positive" ], "why": "No stake now; watch for 2.513+ model price trigger and complete price, then rerun. stress probability 41.4%; price 2.13; conservative EV -11.8%; break-even odds 2.416; bet odds 2.513 for 4% EV; recommendation no_bet_rechecked_price; fresh price check from The Odds API soccer_fifa_world_cup: GTbets (API); news: lineup: Egypt predicted lineup and team news vs New Zealand - Yahoo Sports Canada | lineup: New Zealand vs Egypt Predicted Lineups & Team News - Betfred Insights | availability: David Raya: ‘When you lose a Champions Lea; decision: price below World Cup EV gate", "source": "The Odds API soccer_fifa_world_cup: GTbets (API)" }, { "generated_at": "2026-06-21T07:32:00.796985+00:00", "match_id": "watch-2026-06-22t17-00-00z-argentina-v-austria-over-2-5", "kickoff": "2026-06-22T17:00:00+00:00", "competition": "FIFA World Cup 2026", "home_team": "Argentina", "away_team": "Austria", "market": "over_under_2_5", "selection": "OVER", "decimal_odds": 2.02, "needed_odds": 2.347, "bookmaker": "The Odds API soccer_fifa_world_cup: Matchbook (API)", "model_probability": 0.4433, "implied_probability": 0.49504950495049505, "edge": -0.05174950495049502, "expected_value": -0.1045, "confidence": 0.5, "rejection_reasons": [ "expected_value_not_positive" ], "why": "No stake now; watch for 2.347+ model price trigger and complete price, then rerun. stress probability 44.3%; price 2.02; conservative EV -10.4%; break-even odds 2.256; bet odds 2.347 for 4% EV; recommendation no_bet_rechecked_price; fresh price check from The Odds API soccer_fifa_world_cup: Matchbook (API); news: injury: Argentina Dealt Severe Injury Blow Ahead of Crucial Austria Clash - The Daily Campus | lineup: Argentina hint at multiple changes to starting XI against Austria - daily-sun.com | lineup: Argentina vs Austria at W; decision: price below World Cup EV gate", "source": "The Odds API soccer_fifa_world_cup: Matchbook (API)" }, { "generated_at": "2026-06-21T07:32:00.796985+00:00", "match_id": "watch-2026-06-22t21-00-00z-france-v-iraq-under-2-5", "kickoff": "2026-06-22T21:00:00+00:00", "competition": "FIFA World Cup 2026", "home_team": "France", "away_team": "Iraq", "market": "over_under_2_5", "selection": "UNDER", "decimal_odds": 3.3, "needed_odds": 3.469, "bookmaker": "The Odds API soccer_fifa_world_cup: Betsson (API)", "model_probability": 0.2998, "implied_probability": 0.30303030303030304, "edge": -0.003230303030303028, "expected_value": -0.0107, "confidence": 0.5393, "rejection_reasons": [ "expected_value_not_positive" ], "why": "No stake now; watch for 3.469+ model price trigger and complete price, then rerun. stress probability 30.0%; price 3.30; conservative EV -1.1%; break-even odds 3.336; bet odds 3.469 for 4% EV; recommendation no_bet_rechecked_price; fresh price check from The Odds API soccer_fifa_world_cup: Betsson (API); news: lineup: France vs Iraq: Three changes expected in France’s lineup - MSN | lineup: France vs Iraq – The French lineup announced with changes including Barcola - MSN | lineup: France vs Iraq – The French lineup announced w; decision: price below World Cup EV gate", "source": "The Odds API soccer_fifa_world_cup: Betsson (API)" } ] }