[ { "pick_id": "forced-every-game-2026-06-21-2026-06-21t19-00-00z-belgium-v-iran-under-2-5", "generated_at": "2026-06-21T07:32:00.796985+00:00", "match_id": "forced-every-game-2026-06-21-2026-06-21t19-00-00z-belgium-v-iran-under-2-5", "kickoff": "2026-06-21T19:00:00+00:00", "competition": "FIFA World Cup 2026", "stage": "Group G", "home_team": "Belgium", "away_team": "Iran", "market": "over_under_2_5", "selection": "UNDER", "odds_taken": 2.12, "needed_odds": 2.113, "bookmaker": "The Odds API soccer_fifa_world_cup: Matchbook", "model_probability": 0.4733, "implied_probability": 0.4716981132075471, "expected_value": 0.0034, "quarter_kelly": 0.0008, "forced_stake_units": 0.005, "positive_ev": true, "record_bucket": "forced_every_game", "status": "FORCED_POSITIVE_EV", "result": null, "profit_units": null, "why": "stress probability 47.3%; price 2.12; conservative EV 0.3%; break-even odds 2.113; bet odds 2.198 for 4% EV; recommendation no_bet_rechecked_price; fresh price check from The Odds API soccer_fifa_world_cup: Matchbook (API); news: injury: Belgium winger Doku ruled out of World Cup match against Iran due to illness - FlashScore UK | lineup: Belgium vs Iran – Predicted lineup and team news - Yahoo Sports | lineup: Belgium vs Iran Predicted Lineups &; decision: price below World Cup EV gate", "blocking_reasons": "price below World Cup EV gate", "news_status": "news_matched", "source_row_status": "no_bet_rechecked_price", "tracking_key": "world_cup:2026-06-21t19:00:00z:belgium_v_iran:under_2.5" }, { "pick_id": "forced-every-game-2026-06-21-2026-06-21t22-00-00z-uruguay-v-cape-verde-over-2-5", "generated_at": "2026-06-21T07:32:00.796985+00:00", "match_id": "forced-every-game-2026-06-21-2026-06-21t22-00-00z-uruguay-v-cape-verde-over-2-5", "kickoff": "2026-06-21T22:00:00+00:00", "competition": "FIFA World Cup 2026", "stage": "Group H", "home_team": "Uruguay", "away_team": "Cape Verde", "market": "over_under_2_5", "selection": "OVER", "odds_taken": 2.32, "needed_odds": 2.014, "bookmaker": "The Odds API soccer_fifa_world_cup: BetOnline.ag", "model_probability": 0.4964, "implied_probability": 0.4310344827586207, "expected_value": 0.1516, "quarter_kelly": 0.0287, "forced_stake_units": 0.029, "positive_ev": true, "record_bucket": "forced_every_game", "status": "FORCED_POSITIVE_EV", "result": null, "profit_units": null, "why": "stress probability 49.6%; price 2.32; conservative EV 15.2%; break-even odds 2.014; bet odds 2.096 for 4% EV; recommendation no_bet_integer_stake_floor; fresh price check from The Odds API soccer_fifa_world_cup: BetOnline.ag (API); news: injury: Team News: Uruguay vs. Cape Verde injury, suspension list, predicted XIs | World Cup 2026 - Sports Mole | lineup: Uruguay vs Cape Verde Predicted Lineups & Team News - Betfred Insights | lineup: Cape Verde predic; decision: price/news gates cleared but listed Kelly is belo...", "blocking_reasons": "price/news gates cleared but listed Kelly is below 1u after the totals and handicaps only policy", "news_status": "news_matched", "source_row_status": "no_bet_integer_stake_floor", "tracking_key": "world_cup:2026-06-21t22:00:00z:uruguay_v_cape_verde:over_2.5" }, { "pick_id": "forced-every-game-2026-06-21-2026-06-22t01-00-00z-new-zealand-v-egypt-under-2-5", "generated_at": "2026-06-21T07:32:00.796985+00:00", "match_id": "forced-every-game-2026-06-21-2026-06-22t01-00-00z-new-zealand-v-egypt-under-2-5", "kickoff": "2026-06-22T01:00:00+00:00", "competition": "FIFA World Cup 2026", "stage": "Group G", "home_team": "New Zealand", "away_team": "Egypt", "market": "over_under_2_5", "selection": "UNDER", "odds_taken": 1.8, "needed_odds": 1.995, "bookmaker": "The Odds API soccer_fifa_world_cup: Unibet (SE)", "model_probability": 0.5012, "implied_probability": 0.5555555555555556, "expected_value": -0.0978, "quarter_kelly": 0.0, "forced_stake_units": 0.001, "positive_ev": false, "record_bucket": "forced_every_game", "status": "FORCED_WEAK_OR_NEGATIVE_EV", "result": null, "profit_units": null, "why": "stress probability 50.1%; price 1.80; conservative EV -9.8%; break-even odds 1.995; bet odds 2.076 for 4% EV; recommendation no_bet_rechecked_price; fresh price check from The Odds API soccer_fifa_world_cup: Unibet (SE) (API); news: lineup: Egypt predicted lineup and team news vs New Zealand - Yahoo Sports Canada | lineup: New Zealand vs Egypt Predicted Lineups & Team News - Betfred Insights | availability: David Raya: ‘When you lose a Champions Lea; decision: price below World Cup EV gate", "blocking_reasons": "price below World Cup EV gate", "news_status": "news_matched", "source_row_status": "no_bet_rechecked_price", "tracking_key": "world_cup:2026-06-22t01:00:00z:new_zealand_v_egypt:under_2.5" }, { "pick_id": "forced-every-game-2026-06-21-2026-06-22t17-00-00z-argentina-v-austria-over-2-5", "generated_at": "2026-06-21T07:32:00.796985+00:00", "match_id": "forced-every-game-2026-06-21-2026-06-22t17-00-00z-argentina-v-austria-over-2-5", "kickoff": "2026-06-22T17:00:00+00:00", "competition": "FIFA World Cup 2026", "stage": "Group J", "home_team": "Argentina", "away_team": "Austria", "market": "over_under_2_5", "selection": "OVER", "odds_taken": 2.02, "needed_odds": 2.256, "bookmaker": "The Odds API soccer_fifa_world_cup: Matchbook", "model_probability": 0.4433, "implied_probability": 0.49504950495049505, "expected_value": -0.1045, "quarter_kelly": 0.0, "forced_stake_units": 0.001, "positive_ev": false, "record_bucket": "forced_every_game", "status": "FORCED_WEAK_OR_NEGATIVE_EV", "result": null, "profit_units": null, "why": "stress probability 44.3%; price 2.02; conservative EV -10.4%; break-even odds 2.256; bet odds 2.347 for 4% EV; recommendation no_bet_rechecked_price; fresh price check from The Odds API soccer_fifa_world_cup: Matchbook (API); news: injury: Argentina Dealt Severe Injury Blow Ahead of Crucial Austria Clash - The Daily Campus | lineup: Argentina hint at multiple changes to starting XI against Austria - daily-sun.com | lineup: Argentina vs Austria at W; decision: price below World Cup EV gate", "blocking_reasons": "price below World Cup EV gate", "news_status": "news_matched", "source_row_status": "no_bet_rechecked_price", "tracking_key": "world_cup:2026-06-22t17:00:00z:argentina_v_austria:over_2.5" }, { "pick_id": "forced-every-game-2026-06-21-2026-06-22t21-00-00z-france-v-iraq-under-2-5", "generated_at": "2026-06-21T07:32:00.796985+00:00", "match_id": "forced-every-game-2026-06-21-2026-06-22t21-00-00z-france-v-iraq-under-2-5", "kickoff": "2026-06-22T21:00:00+00:00", "competition": "FIFA World Cup 2026", "stage": "Group I", "home_team": "France", "away_team": "Iraq", "market": "over_under_2_5", "selection": "UNDER", "odds_taken": 3.3, "needed_odds": 3.336, "bookmaker": "The Odds API soccer_fifa_world_cup: Betsson", "model_probability": 0.2998, "implied_probability": 0.30303030303030304, "expected_value": -0.0107, "quarter_kelly": 0.0, "forced_stake_units": 0.001, "positive_ev": false, "record_bucket": "forced_every_game", "status": "FORCED_WEAK_OR_NEGATIVE_EV", "result": null, "profit_units": null, "why": "stress probability 30.0%; price 3.30; conservative EV -1.1%; break-even odds 3.336; bet odds 3.469 for 4% EV; recommendation no_bet_rechecked_price; fresh price check from The Odds API soccer_fifa_world_cup: Betsson (API); news: lineup: France vs Iraq: Three changes expected in France’s lineup - MSN | lineup: France vs Iraq – The French lineup announced with changes including Barcola - MSN | lineup: France vs Iraq – The French lineup announced w; decision: price below World Cup EV gate", "blocking_reasons": "price below World Cup EV gate", "news_status": "news_matched", "source_row_status": "no_bet_rechecked_price", "tracking_key": "world_cup:2026-06-22t21:00:00z:france_v_iraq:under_2.5" } ]