{ "answer": { "actual_slips": { "input_issues": 0, "normal_stake_placed": 0, "normal_stake_profit_units": 0, "normal_stake_roi": 0.0, "normal_stake_settled": 0, "normal_stake_settled_stake_units": 0, "open": 0, "open_stake_units": 0, "placed": 0, "profit_units": 0, "proof_only_placed": 0, "proof_only_profit_units": 0, "proof_only_roi": 0.0, "proof_only_settled": 0, "proof_only_settled_stake_units": 0, "roi": 0.0, "settled": 0, "settled_stake_units": 0, "source": "data/actual_bets.csv", "unclassified_placed": 0, "unclassified_profit_units": 0, "unclassified_roi": 0.0, "unclassified_settled": 0, "unclassified_settled_stake_units": 0 }, "bet_now": "none", "bet_permission": "none", "closest_trigger": { "command_template": { "instruction": "Replace LIVE_DECIMAL_ODDS=live bookmaker price; OPERATOR_BOOKMAKER=bookmaker/source checked before running template commands.", "mode": "template", "placeholders": [ { "field": "decimal_odds", "kind": "decimal_odds", "label": "Live decimal odds", "minimum": "2.198", "placeholder": "LIVE_DECIMAL_ODDS", "required": true }, { "field": "source", "kind": "operator_source", "label": "Bookmaker/operator", "placeholder": "OPERATOR_BOOKMAKER", "required": true } ], "requires_replacement": true }, "commands": { "preview_price": "python3 record_price_check.py --action-row 1 --decimal-odds LIVE_DECIMAL_ODDS --min-decimal-odds 2.198 --source \"OPERATOR_BOOKMAKER\" --notes \"live trigger price\" --dry-run", "record_price": "python3 record_price_check.py --action-row 1 --decimal-odds LIVE_DECIMAL_ODDS --min-decimal-odds 2.198 --source \"OPERATOR_BOOKMAKER\" --notes \"live trigger price\"", "record_price_and_refresh": "python3 record_price_check.py --action-row 1 --decimal-odds LIVE_DECIMAL_ODDS --min-decimal-odds 2.198 --source \"OPERATOR_BOOKMAKER\" --notes \"live trigger price\" --answer-mode --rerun-after-record", "rerun": "./run_daily_goal.sh 2026-06-21 2" }, "expected_value": "0.0034", "input_fields": [ { "kind": "decimal_odds", "label": "Live decimal odds", "minimum": "2.198", "name": "decimal_odds", "placeholder": "LIVE_DECIMAL_ODDS", "required": true }, { "kind": "operator_source", "label": "Bookmaker/operator", "name": "source", "placeholder": "OPERATOR_BOOKMAKER", "required": true }, { "default": "live trigger price", "kind": "text", "label": "Notes", "name": "notes", "required": false } ], "kickoff_local": "2026-06-21T20:00+01:00", "market": "Under 2.5", "match": "Belgium v Iran", "model_probability": "0.4733", "needed_input": "price", "needed_odds": "2.198", "news": { "checked_at": "2026-06-21T07:32:00.796985+00:00", "published_at": "2026-06-20T22:38:57Z | 2026-06-21T05:35:00Z | 2026-06-20T18:59:06Z", "source": "https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMivAFBVV95cUxQZ18tR2hhc2tEdE4tRnR0RkZyVTVYbWRmb25ZLVpGZVkzRUIxWjEzRnhPTWI0eU9uVmxGTmVXSVh3b2NTcm5ER29jczV0M0hKem1LTXNWNlFRU1ZvMFZVU0RNRVBZWlNYUWdRaVA3emotOW5yRk5xbzFKWExlR3lLX2xPUDlFZXFEZk5vODZueUVUMzlnSXpQQmZBajdPLTl3cXhqQ01EOFZpdE96V1pGWGtOb0Jya19uaGZsYw?oc=5 | https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMiiAFBVV95cUxNQXZETWdpTHcwMmlZYmNOajhTTW9qQXhEWU5RQ2ltWEZxWnU5S0F3V0tINWtxdTFwZlNNdVBaakNTcHNLbi1nOTZ6YnJEb1Zwank0SWJPdm9ibFF5WERBT0U4d3AtT1RNT3JsTWR3RENpVFB3c2NZLWlneDVBeXlubDQ0clJMajRs?oc=5 | https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMiuAFBVV95cUxNQ0piRjVpYTJHNWxsN21ucWRQajFnOGdlSnpwRTh2cGVJMmh2RnhPTGZmTnQ2ckxOazQ5Y0w3QTNPaGRCcUZHZUFydmRPQzVPOTRKRE1jTkt5eHNmcUl2Wlg0MjFNeDdONFFtclVhSWMwbWNqLTRTMDZ4YURxRHZfeWZtTXp2ZDczY3JhQXdaWWt3Njlac1J1U1E0c2lVaVNYVGU3ZmFBVGRXZjZMNFBrT3JxUGZPMll2?oc=5", "stake_gate_cleared": true, "status": "news_matched", "status_label": "news_matched", "summary": "injury: Belgium winger Doku ruled out of World Cup match against Iran due to illness - FlashScore UK | lineup: Belgium vs Iran – Predicted lineup and team news - Yahoo Sports | lineup: Belgium vs Iran Predicted Lineups & Team News - Betfred Insights" }, "price_move": "+0.078 (3.7%)", "role": "closest_price_trigger", "row_number": 1, "seen_odds": "2.12", "source": "The Odds API soccer_fifa_world_cup: Matchbook (API)", "stake_units": "0", "watch_window": "in 9h 28m; final 2026-06-21T19:40+01:00", "why": "No stake now; watch for 2.198+ model price trigger and complete price, then rerun. stress probability 47.3%; price 2.12; conservative EV 0.3%; break-even odds 2.113; bet odds 2.198 for 4% EV; recommendation no_bet_rechecked_price; fresh price check from The Odds API soccer_fifa_world_cup: Matchbook (API); news: injury: Belgium winger Doku ruled out of World Cup match against Iran due to illness - FlashScore UK | lineup: Belgium vs Iran – Predicted lineup and team news - Yahoo Sports | lineup: Belgium vs Iran Predicted Lineups &; decision: price below World Cup EV gate" }, "command_template": { "instruction": "Replace LIVE_DECIMAL_ODDS=live bookmaker price; OPERATOR_BOOKMAKER=bookmaker/source checked before running template commands.", "mode": "template", "placeholders": [ { "field": "decimal_odds", "kind": "decimal_odds", "label": "Live decimal odds", "minimum": "2.198", "placeholder": "LIVE_DECIMAL_ODDS", "required": true }, { "field": "source", "kind": "operator_source", "label": "Bookmaker/operator", "placeholder": "OPERATOR_BOOKMAKER", "required": true } ], "requires_replacement": true }, "commands": { "preview_price": "python3 record_price_check.py --action-row 1 --decimal-odds LIVE_DECIMAL_ODDS --min-decimal-odds 2.198 --source \"OPERATOR_BOOKMAKER\" --notes \"live trigger price\" --dry-run", "record_price": "python3 record_price_check.py --action-row 1 --decimal-odds LIVE_DECIMAL_ODDS --min-decimal-odds 2.198 --source \"OPERATOR_BOOKMAKER\" --notes \"live trigger price\"", "record_price_and_refresh": "python3 record_price_check.py --action-row 1 --decimal-odds LIVE_DECIMAL_ODDS --min-decimal-odds 2.198 --source \"OPERATOR_BOOKMAKER\" --notes \"live trigger price\" --answer-mode --rerun-after-record", "rerun": "./run_daily_goal.sh 2026-06-21 2" }, "gate_reason": "no stake; seen 2.12 is EV 0.3%; needs 2.198+; operator/API price confirmed; news gate cleared", "input_fields": [ { "kind": "decimal_odds", "label": "Live decimal odds", "minimum": "2.198", "name": "decimal_odds", "placeholder": "LIVE_DECIMAL_ODDS", "required": true }, { "kind": "operator_source", "label": "Bookmaker/operator", "name": "source", "placeholder": "OPERATOR_BOOKMAKER", "required": true }, { "default": "live trigger price", "kind": "text", "label": "Notes", "name": "notes", "required": false } ], "model": { "expected_value": "0.0034", "probability": "0.4733" }, "needed_input": "price", "needed_odds": "2.198", "next_market": "Under 2.5", "next_match": "Belgium v Iran", "next_step": "preview_price", "next_watch": { "command_template": { "instruction": "Replace LIVE_DECIMAL_ODDS=live bookmaker price; OPERATOR_BOOKMAKER=bookmaker/source checked before running template commands.", "mode": "template", "placeholders": [ { "field": "decimal_odds", "kind": "decimal_odds", "label": "Live decimal odds", "minimum": "2.198", "placeholder": "LIVE_DECIMAL_ODDS", "required": true }, { "field": "source", "kind": "operator_source", "label": "Bookmaker/operator", "placeholder": "OPERATOR_BOOKMAKER", "required": true } ], "requires_replacement": true }, "commands": { "preview_price": "python3 record_price_check.py --action-row 1 --decimal-odds LIVE_DECIMAL_ODDS --min-decimal-odds 2.198 --source \"OPERATOR_BOOKMAKER\" --notes \"live trigger price\" --dry-run", "record_price": "python3 record_price_check.py --action-row 1 --decimal-odds LIVE_DECIMAL_ODDS --min-decimal-odds 2.198 --source \"OPERATOR_BOOKMAKER\" --notes \"live trigger price\"", "record_price_and_refresh": "python3 record_price_check.py --action-row 1 --decimal-odds LIVE_DECIMAL_ODDS --min-decimal-odds 2.198 --source \"OPERATOR_BOOKMAKER\" --notes \"live trigger price\" --answer-mode --rerun-after-record", "rerun": "./run_daily_goal.sh 2026-06-21 2" }, "expected_value": "0.0034", "input_fields": [ { "kind": "decimal_odds", "label": "Live decimal odds", "minimum": "2.198", "name": "decimal_odds", "placeholder": "LIVE_DECIMAL_ODDS", "required": true }, { "kind": "operator_source", "label": "Bookmaker/operator", "name": "source", "placeholder": "OPERATOR_BOOKMAKER", "required": true }, { "default": "live trigger price", "kind": "text", "label": "Notes", "name": "notes", "required": false } ], "kickoff_local": "2026-06-21T20:00+01:00", "market": "Under 2.5", "match": "Belgium v Iran", "model_probability": "0.4733", "needed_input": "price", "needed_odds": "2.198", "news": { "checked_at": "2026-06-21T07:32:00.796985+00:00", "published_at": "2026-06-20T22:38:57Z | 2026-06-21T05:35:00Z | 2026-06-20T18:59:06Z", "source": "https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMivAFBVV95cUxQZ18tR2hhc2tEdE4tRnR0RkZyVTVYbWRmb25ZLVpGZVkzRUIxWjEzRnhPTWI0eU9uVmxGTmVXSVh3b2NTcm5ER29jczV0M0hKem1LTXNWNlFRU1ZvMFZVU0RNRVBZWlNYUWdRaVA3emotOW5yRk5xbzFKWExlR3lLX2xPUDlFZXFEZk5vODZueUVUMzlnSXpQQmZBajdPLTl3cXhqQ01EOFZpdE96V1pGWGtOb0Jya19uaGZsYw?oc=5 | https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMiiAFBVV95cUxNQXZETWdpTHcwMmlZYmNOajhTTW9qQXhEWU5RQ2ltWEZxWnU5S0F3V0tINWtxdTFwZlNNdVBaakNTcHNLbi1nOTZ6YnJEb1Zwank0SWJPdm9ibFF5WERBT0U4d3AtT1RNT3JsTWR3RENpVFB3c2NZLWlneDVBeXlubDQ0clJMajRs?oc=5 | https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMiuAFBVV95cUxNQ0piRjVpYTJHNWxsN21ucWRQajFnOGdlSnpwRTh2cGVJMmh2RnhPTGZmTnQ2ckxOazQ5Y0w3QTNPaGRCcUZHZUFydmRPQzVPOTRKRE1jTkt5eHNmcUl2Wlg0MjFNeDdONFFtclVhSWMwbWNqLTRTMDZ4YURxRHZfeWZtTXp2ZDczY3JhQXdaWWt3Njlac1J1U1E0c2lVaVNYVGU3ZmFBVGRXZjZMNFBrT3JxUGZPMll2?oc=5", "stake_gate_cleared": true, "status": "news_matched", "status_label": "news_matched", "summary": "injury: Belgium winger Doku ruled out of World Cup match against Iran due to illness - FlashScore UK | lineup: Belgium vs Iran – Predicted lineup and team news - Yahoo Sports | lineup: Belgium vs Iran Predicted Lineups & Team News - Betfred Insights" }, "price_move": "+0.078 (3.7%)", "role": "next_chronological_watch", "row_number": 1, "seen_odds": "2.12", "source": "The Odds API soccer_fifa_world_cup: Matchbook (API)", "stake_units": "0", "watch_window": "in 9h 28m; final 2026-06-21T19:40+01:00", "why": "No stake now; watch for 2.198+ model price trigger and complete price, then rerun. stress probability 47.3%; price 2.12; conservative EV 0.3%; break-even odds 2.113; bet odds 2.198 for 4% EV; recommendation no_bet_rechecked_price; fresh price check from The Odds API soccer_fifa_world_cup: Matchbook (API); news: injury: Belgium winger Doku ruled out of World Cup match against Iran due to illness - FlashScore UK | lineup: Belgium vs Iran – Predicted lineup and team news - Yahoo Sports | lineup: Belgium vs Iran Predicted Lineups &; decision: price below World Cup EV gate" }, "normal_stake_allowed": false, "odds": { "needed": "2.198", "price_move": "+0.078 (3.7%)", "seen": "2.12", "source": "The Odds API soccer_fifa_world_cup: Matchbook (API)" }, "one_line": "No bet now. Next kickoff watch: Belgium v Iran Under 2.5; record only if a real bookmaker reaches 2.198+.", "proof": { "actual_placed": 0, "actual_profit_units": 0, "actual_settled": 0, "normal_stake_actual_placed": 0, "normal_stake_actual_settled": 0, "proof_only_actual_placed": 0, "proof_only_actual_settled": 0, "proof_state": "PROVE_FIRST", "recommendation_profit_units": 0, "recommendation_settled": 0, "shadow_brier": 0.262498, "shadow_forced_profit_units": -1.72, "shadow_settled": 40, "unclassified_actual_placed": 0, "unclassified_actual_settled": 0 }, "proof_plan": {}, "proof_stake_allowed": false, "row_number": 1, "settlement_plan": {}, "status": "BLOCKED", "viability": { "actual_placed": 0, "actual_settled": 0, "default_ev_gate_bets": "6", "default_ev_gate_min_supported_bets": 200, "income_staking": "not_ready", "normal_stake_actual_placed": 0, "normal_stake_actual_settled": 0, "one_line": "Not ready for income staking: 0 actual placements; broad positive-EV backtest ROI -3.1%; 0 settled staked live recommendations; default 5% EV gate has 6 historical bets", "proof_only_actual_placed": 0, "proof_only_actual_settled": 0, "reasons": [ "0 actual placements", "broad positive-EV backtest ROI -3.1%", "0 settled staked live recommendations", "default 5% EV gate has 6 historical bets", "no supported 5% EV segment", "0 settled actual bookmaker placements" ], "recommendation_settled": 0, "shadow_forced_profit_units": -1.72, "shadow_settled": 40, "state": "PROVE_FIRST", "unclassified_actual_placed": 0, "unclassified_actual_settled": 0 }, "watch_required": true }, "artifacts": { "actual_bets": "data/actual_bets.csv", "briefing": "results/daily_briefing.md", "daily_card": "/Users/benluong/Library/CloudStorage/GoogleDrive-btl101@gmail.com/My Drive/claude/football betting/results/daily_betting_card.csv", "doctor": "results/pipeline_doctor.md", "operator_action_queue": "results/operator_action_queue.csv", "world_cup_card": "results/world_cup_daily_card.csv", "world_cup_news": "results/world_cup_news_context.csv" }, "as_of": "2026-06-21T07:32:00.796985+00:00", "as_of_local": "2026-06-21T08:32:00.796985+01:00", "bet_now": "none", "bet_permission": "none", "bet_ticket": [ "Real-money ticket: none. Do not stake unless a row appears in `Actionable Bets` after a fresh rerun.", "Closest conditional trigger: Belgium v Iran Under 2.5; current 2.12 from The Odds API soccer_fifa_world_cup: Matchbook (API), needs 2.198+; complete price and rerun before any stake decision.", "Trigger workflow template: only if a live bookmaker reaches 2.198+ model price trigger, replace `LIVE_DECIMAL_ODDS` with the live bookmaker price and `OPERATOR_BOOKMAKER` with the bookmaker/source you checked before running; run `python3 record_price_check.py --action-row 1 --decimal-odds LIVE_DECIMAL_ODDS --min-decimal-odds 2.198 --source \"OPERATOR_BOOKMAKER\" --notes \"live trigger price\" --dry-run`, then `python3 record_price_check.py --action-row 1 --decimal-odds LIVE_DECIMAL_ODDS --min-decimal-odds 2.198 --source \"OPERATOR_BOOKMAKER\" --notes \"live trigger price\" --answer-mode --rerun-after-record`." ], "blockers": [ "Watch-only: 9 World Cup operator/API price rows were checked and still sit below the EV gate; closest confirmed price is Belgium v Iran Under 2.5 current 2.12 from The Odds API soccer_fifa_world_cup: Matchbook (API) (EV 0.3%; needs 2.198+ for the 4% EV gate; needed input: price)." ], "candidate_rows": [], "closest_trigger_row": { "action_type": "watch_price", "command": "python3 record_price_check.py --action-row 1 --decimal-odds LIVE_DECIMAL_ODDS --min-decimal-odds 2.198 --source \"OPERATOR_BOOKMAKER\" --notes \"live trigger price\"", "command_template": { "instruction": "Replace LIVE_DECIMAL_ODDS=live bookmaker price; OPERATOR_BOOKMAKER=bookmaker/source checked before running template commands.", "mode": "template", "placeholders": [ { "field": "decimal_odds", "kind": "decimal_odds", "label": "Live decimal odds", "minimum": "2.198", "placeholder": "LIVE_DECIMAL_ODDS", "required": true }, { "field": "source", "kind": "operator_source", "label": "Bookmaker/operator", "placeholder": "OPERATOR_BOOKMAKER", "required": true } ], "requires_replacement": true }, "commands": { "preview_price": "python3 record_price_check.py --action-row 1 --decimal-odds LIVE_DECIMAL_ODDS --min-decimal-odds 2.198 --source \"OPERATOR_BOOKMAKER\" --notes \"live trigger price\" --dry-run", "record_price": "python3 record_price_check.py --action-row 1 --decimal-odds LIVE_DECIMAL_ODDS --min-decimal-odds 2.198 --source \"OPERATOR_BOOKMAKER\" --notes \"live trigger price\"", "record_price_and_refresh": "python3 record_price_check.py --action-row 1 --decimal-odds LIVE_DECIMAL_ODDS --min-decimal-odds 2.198 --source \"OPERATOR_BOOKMAKER\" --notes \"live trigger price\" --answer-mode --rerun-after-record", "rerun": "./run_daily_goal.sh 2026-06-21 2" }, "date_utc": "2026-06-21T19:00:00Z", "expected_value": "0.0034", "input_fields": [ { "kind": "decimal_odds", "label": "Live decimal odds", "minimum": "2.198", "name": "decimal_odds", "placeholder": "LIVE_DECIMAL_ODDS", "required": true }, { "kind": "operator_source", "label": "Bookmaker/operator", "name": "source", "placeholder": "OPERATOR_BOOKMAKER", "required": true }, { "default": "live trigger price", "kind": "text", "label": "Notes", "name": "notes", "required": false } ], "kickoff_local": "2026-06-21T20:00+01:00", "market": "Under 2.5", "match": "Belgium v Iran", "model_probability": "0.4733", "needed_input": "price", "needed_odds": "2.198", "news_command": "", "preview_command": "python3 record_price_check.py --action-row 1 --decimal-odds LIVE_DECIMAL_ODDS --min-decimal-odds 2.198 --source \"OPERATOR_BOOKMAKER\" --notes \"live trigger price\" --dry-run", "price_move": "+0.078 (3.7%)", "priority": "2", "recommendation": "WATCH_ONLY", "refresh_command": "python3 record_price_check.py --action-row 1 --decimal-odds LIVE_DECIMAL_ODDS --min-decimal-odds 2.198 --source \"OPERATOR_BOOKMAKER\" --notes \"live trigger price\" --answer-mode --rerun-after-record", "rerun_command": "./run_daily_goal.sh 2026-06-21 2", "row_number": 1, "scope": "world_cup", "seen_odds": "2.12", "source": "The Odds API soccer_fifa_world_cup: Matchbook (API)", "stake_units": "0", "thresholds": { "expected_value": "0.0034", "kickoff_local": "2026-06-21T20:00+01:00", "model_probability": "0.4733", "needed_odds": "2.198", "price_move": "+0.078 (3.7%)", "seen_odds": "2.12", "source": "The Odds API soccer_fifa_world_cup: Matchbook (API)", "stake_units": "0", "watch_rank": "1", "watch_window": "in 9h 28m; final 2026-06-21T19:40+01:00" }, "watch_rank": "1", "watch_window": "in 9h 28m; final 2026-06-21T19:40+01:00", "why": "No stake now; watch for 2.198+ model price trigger and complete price, then rerun. stress probability 47.3%; price 2.12; conservative EV 0.3%; break-even odds 2.113; bet odds 2.198 for 4% EV; recommendation no_bet_rechecked_price; fresh price check from The Odds API soccer_fifa_world_cup: Matchbook (API); news: injury: Belgium winger Doku ruled out of World Cup match against Iran due to illness - FlashScore UK | lineup: Belgium vs Iran – Predicted lineup and team news - Yahoo Sports | lineup: Belgium vs Iran Predicted Lineups &; decision: price below World Cup EV gate", "workflow": { "command_template": { "instruction": "Replace LIVE_DECIMAL_ODDS=live bookmaker price; OPERATOR_BOOKMAKER=bookmaker/source checked before running template commands.", "mode": "template", "placeholders": [ { "field": "decimal_odds", "kind": "decimal_odds", "label": "Live decimal odds", "minimum": "2.198", "placeholder": "LIVE_DECIMAL_ODDS", "required": true }, { "field": "source", "kind": "operator_source", "label": "Bookmaker/operator", "placeholder": "OPERATOR_BOOKMAKER", "required": true } ], "requires_replacement": true }, "commands": { "preview_price": "python3 record_price_check.py --action-row 1 --decimal-odds LIVE_DECIMAL_ODDS --min-decimal-odds 2.198 --source \"OPERATOR_BOOKMAKER\" --notes \"live trigger price\" --dry-run", "record_price": "python3 record_price_check.py --action-row 1 --decimal-odds LIVE_DECIMAL_ODDS --min-decimal-odds 2.198 --source \"OPERATOR_BOOKMAKER\" --notes \"live trigger price\"", "record_price_and_refresh": "python3 record_price_check.py --action-row 1 --decimal-odds LIVE_DECIMAL_ODDS --min-decimal-odds 2.198 --source \"OPERATOR_BOOKMAKER\" --notes \"live trigger price\" --answer-mode --rerun-after-record", "rerun": "./run_daily_goal.sh 2026-06-21 2" }, "input_fields": [ { "kind": "decimal_odds", "label": "Live decimal odds", "minimum": "2.198", "name": "decimal_odds", "placeholder": "LIVE_DECIMAL_ODDS", "required": true }, { "kind": "operator_source", "label": "Bookmaker/operator", "name": "source", "placeholder": "OPERATOR_BOOKMAKER", "required": true }, { "default": "live trigger price", "kind": "text", "label": "Notes", "name": "notes", "required": false } ], "next_step": "preview_price", "thresholds": { "expected_value": "0.0034", "kickoff_local": "2026-06-21T20:00+01:00", "model_probability": "0.4733", "needed_odds": "2.198", "price_move": "+0.078 (3.7%)", "seen_odds": "2.12", "source": "The Odds API soccer_fifa_world_cup: Matchbook (API)", "stake_units": "0", "watch_rank": "1", "watch_window": "in 9h 28m; final 2026-06-21T19:40+01:00" } } }, "commands": { "preview_price": "python3 record_price_check.py --action-row 1 --decimal-odds LIVE_DECIMAL_ODDS --min-decimal-odds 2.198 --source \"OPERATOR_BOOKMAKER\" --notes \"live trigger price\" --dry-run", "record_price": "python3 record_price_check.py --action-row 1 --decimal-odds LIVE_DECIMAL_ODDS --min-decimal-odds 2.198 --source \"OPERATOR_BOOKMAKER\" --notes \"live trigger price\"", "record_price_and_refresh": "python3 record_price_check.py --action-row 1 --decimal-odds LIVE_DECIMAL_ODDS --min-decimal-odds 2.198 --source \"OPERATOR_BOOKMAKER\" --notes \"live trigger price\" --answer-mode --rerun-after-record", "rerun": "./run_daily_goal.sh 2026-06-21 2" }, "current_action": { "action": "watch_price", "action_type": "watch_price", "bet_permission": "none", "command": "python3 record_price_check.py --action-row 1 --decimal-odds LIVE_DECIMAL_ODDS --min-decimal-odds 2.198 --source \"OPERATOR_BOOKMAKER\" --notes \"live trigger price\"", "command_template": { "instruction": "Replace LIVE_DECIMAL_ODDS=live bookmaker price; OPERATOR_BOOKMAKER=bookmaker/source checked before running template commands.", "mode": "template", "placeholders": [ { "field": "decimal_odds", "kind": "decimal_odds", "label": "Live decimal odds", "minimum": "2.198", "placeholder": "LIVE_DECIMAL_ODDS", "required": true }, { "field": "source", "kind": "operator_source", "label": "Bookmaker/operator", "placeholder": "OPERATOR_BOOKMAKER", "required": true } ], "requires_replacement": true }, "commands": { "preview_price": "python3 record_price_check.py --action-row 1 --decimal-odds LIVE_DECIMAL_ODDS --min-decimal-odds 2.198 --source \"OPERATOR_BOOKMAKER\" --notes \"live trigger price\" --dry-run", "record_price": "python3 record_price_check.py --action-row 1 --decimal-odds LIVE_DECIMAL_ODDS --min-decimal-odds 2.198 --source \"OPERATOR_BOOKMAKER\" --notes \"live trigger price\"", "record_price_and_refresh": "python3 record_price_check.py --action-row 1 --decimal-odds LIVE_DECIMAL_ODDS --min-decimal-odds 2.198 --source \"OPERATOR_BOOKMAKER\" --notes \"live trigger price\" --answer-mode --rerun-after-record", "rerun": "./run_daily_goal.sh 2026-06-21 2" }, "date_utc": "2026-06-21T19:00:00Z", "expected_value": "0.0034", "input_fields": [ { "kind": "decimal_odds", "label": "Live decimal odds", "minimum": "2.198", "name": "decimal_odds", "placeholder": "LIVE_DECIMAL_ODDS", "required": true }, { "kind": "operator_source", "label": "Bookmaker/operator", "name": "source", "placeholder": "OPERATOR_BOOKMAKER", "required": true }, { "default": "live trigger price", "kind": "text", "label": "Notes", "name": "notes", "required": false } ], "kickoff_local": "2026-06-21T20:00+01:00", "market": "Under 2.5", "match": "Belgium v Iran", "model_probability": "0.4733", "needed_odds": "2.198", "news_command": "", "normal_stake_allowed": false, "preview_command": "python3 record_price_check.py --action-row 1 --decimal-odds LIVE_DECIMAL_ODDS --min-decimal-odds 2.198 --source \"OPERATOR_BOOKMAKER\" --notes \"live trigger price\" --dry-run", "price_move": "+0.078 (3.7%)", "proof_stake_allowed": false, "recommendation": "WATCH_ONLY", "refresh_command": "python3 record_price_check.py --action-row 1 --decimal-odds LIVE_DECIMAL_ODDS --min-decimal-odds 2.198 --source \"OPERATOR_BOOKMAKER\" --notes \"live trigger price\" --answer-mode --rerun-after-record", "required_input": "price", "rerun_command": "./run_daily_goal.sh 2026-06-21 2", "row_number": 1, "scope": "world_cup", "seen_odds": "2.12", "source": "The Odds API soccer_fifa_world_cup: Matchbook (API)", "stake_units": "0", "summary": "No stake now; watch for 2.198+ model price trigger and complete price, then rerun. stress probability 47.3%; price 2.12; conservative EV 0.3%; break-even odds 2.113; bet odds 2.198 for 4% EV; recommendation no_bet_rechecked_price; fresh price check from The Odds API soccer_fifa_world_cup: Matchbook (API); news: injury: Belgium winger Doku ruled out of World Cup match against Iran due to illness - FlashScore UK | lineup: Belgium vs Iran – Predicted lineup and team news - Yahoo Sports | lineup: Belgium vs Iran Predicted Lineups &; decision: price below World Cup EV gate", "thresholds": { "expected_value": "0.0034", "kickoff_local": "2026-06-21T20:00+01:00", "model_probability": "0.4733", "needed_odds": "2.198", "price_move": "+0.078 (3.7%)", "seen_odds": "2.12", "source": "The Odds API soccer_fifa_world_cup: Matchbook (API)", "stake_units": "0", "watch_rank": "1", "watch_window": "in 9h 28m; final 2026-06-21T19:40+01:00" }, "watch_rank": "1", "watch_required": true, "watch_window": "in 9h 28m; final 2026-06-21T19:40+01:00", "why": "No stake now; watch for 2.198+ model price trigger and complete price, then rerun. stress probability 47.3%; price 2.12; conservative EV 0.3%; break-even odds 2.113; bet odds 2.198 for 4% EV; recommendation no_bet_rechecked_price; fresh price check from The Odds API soccer_fifa_world_cup: Matchbook (API); news: injury: Belgium winger Doku ruled out of World Cup match against Iran due to illness - FlashScore UK | lineup: Belgium vs Iran – Predicted lineup and team news - Yahoo Sports | lineup: Belgium vs Iran Predicted Lineups &; decision: price below World Cup EV gate", "workflow": { "command_template": { "instruction": "Replace LIVE_DECIMAL_ODDS=live bookmaker price; OPERATOR_BOOKMAKER=bookmaker/source checked before running template commands.", "mode": "template", "placeholders": [ { "field": "decimal_odds", "kind": "decimal_odds", "label": "Live decimal odds", "minimum": "2.198", "placeholder": "LIVE_DECIMAL_ODDS", "required": true }, { "field": "source", "kind": "operator_source", "label": "Bookmaker/operator", "placeholder": "OPERATOR_BOOKMAKER", "required": true } ], "requires_replacement": true }, "commands": { "preview_price": "python3 record_price_check.py --action-row 1 --decimal-odds LIVE_DECIMAL_ODDS --min-decimal-odds 2.198 --source \"OPERATOR_BOOKMAKER\" --notes \"live trigger price\" --dry-run", "record_price": "python3 record_price_check.py --action-row 1 --decimal-odds LIVE_DECIMAL_ODDS --min-decimal-odds 2.198 --source \"OPERATOR_BOOKMAKER\" --notes \"live trigger price\"", "record_price_and_refresh": "python3 record_price_check.py --action-row 1 --decimal-odds LIVE_DECIMAL_ODDS --min-decimal-odds 2.198 --source \"OPERATOR_BOOKMAKER\" --notes \"live trigger price\" --answer-mode --rerun-after-record", "rerun": "./run_daily_goal.sh 2026-06-21 2" }, "input_fields": [ { "kind": "decimal_odds", "label": "Live decimal odds", "minimum": "2.198", "name": "decimal_odds", "placeholder": "LIVE_DECIMAL_ODDS", "required": true }, { "kind": "operator_source", "label": "Bookmaker/operator", "name": "source", "placeholder": "OPERATOR_BOOKMAKER", "required": true }, { "default": "live trigger price", "kind": "text", "label": "Notes", "name": "notes", "required": false } ], "next_step": "preview_price", "thresholds": { "expected_value": "0.0034", "kickoff_local": "2026-06-21T20:00+01:00", "model_probability": "0.4733", "needed_odds": "2.198", "price_move": "+0.078 (3.7%)", "seen_odds": "2.12", "source": "The Odds API soccer_fifa_world_cup: Matchbook (API)", "stake_units": "0", "watch_rank": "1", "watch_window": "in 9h 28m; final 2026-06-21T19:40+01:00" } } }, "doctor_status": "WATCH_ONLY", "evidence": "0 settled staked recommendation(s); 40 settled shadow zero-stake row(s)", "fixture_sheet": [ { "action": "Settled 0-0; no staked bet; zero-stake audit only", "day": "Today", "fixture": "Ecuador v Curaçao", "model": "Ecuador 77.0%; xG 3.10; O2.5 59.9% / BTTS 43.7%", "odds_trigger": "2 market rows; settled Over 2.5 1.71; model age 44d", "result": "0-0" }, { "action": "No market checks; refresh World Cup artifacts", "day": "Today", "fixture": "Spain v Saudi Arabia", "model": "Spain 83.2%; xG 3.30; O2.5 64.0% / BTTS 39.6%", "odds_trigger": "model scrape age 44d", "result": "pending" }, { "action": "No bet Under 2.5; needs 2.198+; price", "day": "Today", "fixture": "Belgium v Iran", "model": "Belgium 63.5%; xG 2.60; O2.5 48.2% / BTTS 44.5%", "odds_trigger": "2 API price checks; nearest Under 2.5 2.12 needs 2.198+; The Odds API soccer_fifa_world_cup:...", "result": "pending" }, { "action": "No bet Over 2.5; needs 2.096+", "day": "Today", "fixture": "Uruguay v Cape Verde", "model": "Uruguay 65.7%; xG 2.70; O2.5 50.6% / BTTS 45.3%", "odds_trigger": "2 API price checks; nearest Over 2.5 2.32 needs 2.096+; The Odds API soccer_fifa_world_cup: B...", "result": "pending" }, { "action": "No bet Under 2.5; needs 2.076+; price", "day": "Tomorrow", "fixture": "New Zealand v Egypt", "model": "Egypt 55.1%; xG 2.35; O2.5 41.7% / BTTS 43.4%", "odds_trigger": "2 API price checks; nearest Under 2.5 1.80 needs 2.076+; The Odds API soccer_fifa_world_cup:...", "result": "pending" }, { "action": "No bet Over 2.5; needs 2.347+; price", "day": "Tomorrow", "fixture": "Argentina v Austria", "model": "Argentina 60.1%; xG 2.45; O2.5 44.3% / BTTS 43.1%", "odds_trigger": "2 API price checks; nearest Over 2.5 2.02 needs 2.347+; The Odds API soccer_fifa_world_cup: M...", "result": "pending" } ], "generated_at": "2026-06-21T07:32:00.796985+00:00", "market_decisions": [ { "blocking_reasons": "price/news gates cleared but listed Kelly is below 1u after the totals and handicaps only policy", "consensus_probability": "0.5364", "date_utc": "2026-06-21T22:00:00Z", "decimal_odds": "2.32", "elo_model_probability": "0.5731", "expected_value": "0.1516", "market": "Over 2.5", "market_1x2_model_probability": "0.5064", "match": "Uruguay v Cape Verde", "min_acceptable_odds": "2.014", "model_probability": "0.4964", "news_status": "news_matched", "odds_age_days": "0", "price_checked_at": "2026-06-21T07:32:05+00:00", "price_source": "The Odds API soccer_fifa_world_cup: BetOnline.ag", "price_status": "best_bet_candidate", "quarter_kelly": "0.0287", "recommendation_status": "no_bet_integer_stake_floor", "row_number": 1, "scope": "world_cup", "settled": "no", "stage": "Group H", "stake_units": "0.0", "status": "no_bet_integer_stake_floor", "tracking_key": "world_cup:2026-06-21t22:00:00z:uruguay_v_cape_verde:over_2.5", "why": "stress probability 49.6%; price 2.32; conservative EV 15.2%; break-even odds 2.014; bet odds 2.096 for 4% EV; recommendation no_bet_integer_stake_floor; fresh price check from The Odds API soccer_fifa_world_cup: BetOnline.ag (API); news: injury: Team News: Uruguay vs. Cape Verde injury, suspension list, predicted XIs | World Cup 2026 - Sports Mole | lineup: Uruguay vs Cape Verde Predicted Lineups & Team News - Betfred Insights | lineup: Cape Verde predic; decision: price/news gates cleared but listed Kelly is below 1u after the totals and handicaps only policy" }, { "blocking_reasons": "settled result supplied", "consensus_probability": "0.6316", "date_utc": "2026-06-21T00:00:00.000Z", "decimal_odds": "1.71", "elo_model_probability": "0.6717", "expected_value": "0.0116", "market": "Over 2.5", "market_1x2_model_probability": "0.5988", "match": "Ecuador v Curaçao", "min_acceptable_odds": "1.69", "model_probability": "0.5916", "news_status": "news_matched", "odds_age_days": "44", "price_status": "no_bet_stale_price", "profit_units": "0.0", "quarter_kelly": "0", "recommendation_status": "no_bet_stale_price", "result": "0-0", "row_number": 2, "scope": "world_cup", "settled": "yes", "stage": "Group E", "stake_units": "0.0", "status": "settled_result_supplied", "tracking_key": "world_cup:2026-06-21t00:00:00.000z:ecuador_v_curaçao:over_2.5", "why": "stress probability 59.2%; price 1.71; conservative EV 1.2%; break-even odds 1.690; bet odds 1.758 for 4% EV; recommendation no_bet_stale_price; scraped price age 44 days; news: lineup: Ecuador - Curaçao Line-up: World Cup Football - TNT Sports | lineup: Ecuador vs Curaçao – Official lineups: A PSG player is a starter - MSN | lineup: Ecuador vs Curaçao Lineups, Live Streaming, TV Channels, How a; result 0-0; zero-stake audit: model side missed; decision: settled result supplied", "won": "no" }, { "blocking_reasons": "price below World Cup EV gate", "consensus_probability": "0.5133", "date_utc": "2026-06-21T19:00:00Z", "decimal_odds": "2.12", "elo_model_probability": "0.5071", "expected_value": "0.0034", "market": "Under 2.5", "market_1x2_model_probability": "0.5184", "match": "Belgium v Iran", "min_acceptable_odds": "2.113", "model_probability": "0.4733", "news_status": "news_matched", "odds_age_days": "0", "price_checked_at": "2026-06-21T07:32:17+00:00", "price_source": "The Odds API soccer_fifa_world_cup: Matchbook", "price_status": "no_bet_rechecked_price", "quarter_kelly": "0.0008", "recommendation_status": "no_bet_rechecked_price", "row_number": 3, "scope": "world_cup", "settled": "no", "stage": "Group G", "stake_units": "0.0", "status": "no_bet_rechecked_price", "tracking_key": "world_cup:2026-06-21t19:00:00z:belgium_v_iran:under_2.5", "why": "stress probability 47.3%; price 2.12; conservative EV 0.3%; break-even odds 2.113; bet odds 2.198 for 4% EV; recommendation no_bet_rechecked_price; fresh price check from The Odds API soccer_fifa_world_cup: Matchbook (API); news: injury: Belgium winger Doku ruled out of World Cup match against Iran due to illness - FlashScore UK | lineup: Belgium vs Iran – Predicted lineup and team news - Yahoo Sports | lineup: Belgium vs Iran Predicted Lineups &; decision: price below World Cup EV gate" }, { "blocking_reasons": "price below World Cup EV gate", "consensus_probability": "0.3398", "date_utc": "2026-06-22T21:00:00Z", "decimal_odds": "3.3", "elo_model_probability": "0.3155", "expected_value": "-0.0107", "market": "Under 2.5", "market_1x2_model_probability": "0.3596", "match": "France v Iraq", "min_acceptable_odds": "3.336", "model_probability": "0.2998", "news_status": "news_matched", "odds_age_days": "0", "price_checked_at": "2026-06-21T07:32:16+00:00", "price_source": "The Odds API soccer_fifa_world_cup: Betsson", "price_status": "no_bet_rechecked_price", "quarter_kelly": "0.0", "recommendation_status": "no_bet_rechecked_price", "row_number": 4, "scope": "world_cup", "settled": "no", "stage": "Group I", "stake_units": "0.0", "status": "no_bet_rechecked_price", "tracking_key": "world_cup:2026-06-22t21:00:00z:france_v_iraq:under_2.5", "why": "stress probability 30.0%; price 3.30; conservative EV -1.1%; break-even odds 3.336; bet odds 3.469 for 4% EV; recommendation no_bet_rechecked_price; fresh price check from The Odds API soccer_fifa_world_cup: Betsson (API); news: lineup: France vs Iraq: Three changes expected in France’s lineup - MSN | lineup: France vs Iraq – The French lineup announced with changes including Barcola - MSN | lineup: France vs Iraq – The French lineup announced w; decision: price below World Cup EV gate" }, { "blocking_reasons": "price below World Cup EV gate", "consensus_probability": "0.5461", "date_utc": "2026-06-22T01:00:00Z", "decimal_odds": "1.8", "elo_model_probability": "0.5012", "expected_value": "-0.0978", "market": "Under 2.5", "market_1x2_model_probability": "0.5828", "match": "New Zealand v Egypt", "min_acceptable_odds": "1.995", "model_probability": "0.5012", "news_status": "news_matched", "odds_age_days": "0", "price_checked_at": "2026-06-21T07:31:54+00:00", "price_source": "The Odds API soccer_fifa_world_cup: Unibet (SE)", "price_status": "no_bet_rechecked_price", "quarter_kelly": "0.0", "recommendation_status": "no_bet_rechecked_price", "row_number": 5, "scope": "world_cup", "settled": "no", "stage": "Group G", "stake_units": "0.0", "status": "no_bet_rechecked_price", "tracking_key": "world_cup:2026-06-22t01:00:00z:new_zealand_v_egypt:under_2.5", "why": "stress probability 50.1%; price 1.80; conservative EV -9.8%; break-even odds 1.995; bet odds 2.076 for 4% EV; recommendation no_bet_rechecked_price; fresh price check from The Odds API soccer_fifa_world_cup: Unibet (SE) (API); news: lineup: Egypt predicted lineup and team news vs New Zealand - Yahoo Sports Canada | lineup: New Zealand vs Egypt Predicted Lineups & Team News - Betfred Insights | availability: David Raya: ‘When you lose a Champions Lea; decision: price below World Cup EV gate" }, { "blocking_reasons": "price below World Cup EV gate", "consensus_probability": "0.5034", "date_utc": "2026-06-22T17:00:00Z", "decimal_odds": "2.02", "elo_model_probability": "0.5769", "expected_value": "-0.1045", "market": "Over 2.5", "market_1x2_model_probability": "0.4433", "match": "Argentina v Austria", "min_acceptable_odds": "2.256", "model_probability": "0.4433", "news_status": "news_matched", "odds_age_days": "0", "price_checked_at": "2026-06-21T07:32:17+00:00", "price_source": "The Odds API soccer_fifa_world_cup: Matchbook", "price_status": "no_bet_rechecked_price", "quarter_kelly": "0.0", "recommendation_status": "no_bet_rechecked_price", "row_number": 6, "scope": "world_cup", "settled": "no", "stage": "Group J", "stake_units": "0.0", "status": "no_bet_rechecked_price", "tracking_key": "world_cup:2026-06-22t17:00:00z:argentina_v_austria:over_2.5", "why": "stress probability 44.3%; price 2.02; conservative EV -10.4%; break-even odds 2.256; bet odds 2.347 for 4% EV; recommendation no_bet_rechecked_price; fresh price check from The Odds API soccer_fifa_world_cup: Matchbook (API); news: injury: Argentina Dealt Severe Injury Blow Ahead of Crucial Austria Clash - The Daily Campus | lineup: Argentina hint at multiple changes to starting XI against Austria - daily-sun.com | lineup: Argentina vs Austria at W; decision: price below World Cup EV gate" }, { "blocking_reasons": "price below World Cup EV gate", "consensus_probability": "0.4539", "date_utc": "2026-06-22T01:00:00Z", "decimal_odds": "2.13", "elo_model_probability": "0.4988", "expected_value": "-0.1184", "market": "Over 2.5", "market_1x2_model_probability": "0.4172", "match": "New Zealand v Egypt", "min_acceptable_odds": "2.416", "model_probability": "0.4139", "news_status": "news_matched", "odds_age_days": "0", "price_checked_at": "2026-06-21T07:32:06+00:00", "price_source": "The Odds API soccer_fifa_world_cup: GTbets", "price_status": "no_bet_rechecked_price", "quarter_kelly": "0.0", "recommendation_status": "no_bet_rechecked_price", "row_number": 7, "scope": "world_cup", "settled": "no", "stage": "Group G", "stake_units": "0.0", "status": "no_bet_rechecked_price", "tracking_key": "world_cup:2026-06-22t01:00:00z:new_zealand_v_egypt:over_2.5", "why": "stress probability 41.4%; price 2.13; conservative EV -11.8%; break-even odds 2.416; bet odds 2.513 for 4% EV; recommendation no_bet_rechecked_price; fresh price check from The Odds API soccer_fifa_world_cup: GTbets (API); news: lineup: Egypt predicted lineup and team news vs New Zealand - Yahoo Sports Canada | lineup: New Zealand vs Egypt Predicted Lineups & Team News - Betfred Insights | availability: David Raya: ‘When you lose a Champions Lea; decision: price below World Cup EV gate" }, { "blocking_reasons": "price below World Cup EV gate", "consensus_probability": "0.4867", "date_utc": "2026-06-21T19:00:00Z", "decimal_odds": "1.88", "elo_model_probability": "0.4929", "expected_value": "-0.1602", "market": "Over 2.5", "market_1x2_model_probability": "0.4816", "match": "Belgium v Iran", "min_acceptable_odds": "2.239", "model_probability": "0.4467", "news_status": "news_matched", "odds_age_days": "0", "price_checked_at": "2026-06-21T07:32:17+00:00", "price_source": "The Odds API soccer_fifa_world_cup: Matchbook", "price_status": "no_bet_rechecked_price", "quarter_kelly": "0.0", "recommendation_status": "no_bet_rechecked_price", "row_number": 8, "scope": "world_cup", "settled": "no", "stage": "Group G", "stake_units": "0.0", "status": "no_bet_rechecked_price", "tracking_key": "world_cup:2026-06-21t19:00:00z:belgium_v_iran:over_2.5", "why": "stress probability 44.7%; price 1.88; conservative EV -16.0%; break-even odds 2.239; bet odds 2.329 for 4% EV; recommendation no_bet_rechecked_price; fresh price check from The Odds API soccer_fifa_world_cup: Matchbook (API); news: injury: Belgium winger Doku ruled out of World Cup match against Iran due to illness - FlashScore UK | lineup: Belgium vs Iran – Predicted lineup and team news - Yahoo Sports | lineup: Belgium vs Iran Predicted Lineups &; decision: price below World Cup EV gate" }, { "blocking_reasons": "price below World Cup EV gate", "consensus_probability": "0.6602", "date_utc": "2026-06-22T21:00:00Z", "decimal_odds": "1.35", "elo_model_probability": "0.6845", "expected_value": "-0.1627", "market": "Over 2.5", "market_1x2_model_probability": "0.6404", "match": "France v Iraq", "min_acceptable_odds": "1.612", "model_probability": "0.6202", "news_status": "news_matched", "odds_age_days": "0", "price_checked_at": "2026-06-21T07:32:16+00:00", "price_source": "The Odds API soccer_fifa_world_cup: William Hill", "price_status": "no_bet_rechecked_price", "quarter_kelly": "0.0", "recommendation_status": "no_bet_rechecked_price", "row_number": 9, "scope": "world_cup", "settled": "no", "stage": "Group I", "stake_units": "0.0", "status": "no_bet_rechecked_price", "tracking_key": "world_cup:2026-06-22t21:00:00z:france_v_iraq:over_2.5", "why": "stress probability 62.0%; price 1.35; conservative EV -16.3%; break-even odds 1.612; bet odds 1.677 for 4% EV; recommendation no_bet_rechecked_price; fresh price check from The Odds API soccer_fifa_world_cup: William Hill (API); news: lineup: France vs Iraq: Three changes expected in France’s lineup - MSN | lineup: France vs Iraq – The French lineup announced with changes including Barcola - MSN | lineup: France vs Iraq – The French lineup announced w; decision: price below World Cup EV gate" }, { "blocking_reasons": "price below World Cup EV gate", "consensus_probability": "0.4966", "date_utc": "2026-06-22T17:00:00Z", "decimal_odds": "1.97", "elo_model_probability": "0.4231", "expected_value": "-0.1665", "market": "Under 2.5", "market_1x2_model_probability": "0.5567", "match": "Argentina v Austria", "min_acceptable_odds": "2.364", "model_probability": "0.4231", "news_status": "news_matched", "odds_age_days": "0", "price_checked_at": "2026-06-21T07:32:17+00:00", "price_source": "The Odds API soccer_fifa_world_cup: Matchbook", "price_status": "no_bet_rechecked_price", "quarter_kelly": "0.0", "recommendation_status": "no_bet_rechecked_price", "row_number": 10, "scope": "world_cup", "settled": "no", "stage": "Group J", "stake_units": "0.0", "status": "no_bet_rechecked_price", "tracking_key": "world_cup:2026-06-22t17:00:00z:argentina_v_austria:under_2.5", "why": "stress probability 42.3%; price 1.97; conservative EV -16.7%; break-even odds 2.364; bet odds 2.459 for 4% EV; recommendation no_bet_rechecked_price; fresh price check from The Odds API soccer_fifa_world_cup: Matchbook (API); news: injury: Argentina Dealt Severe Injury Blow Ahead of Crucial Austria Clash - The Daily Campus | lineup: Argentina hint at multiple changes to starting XI against Austria - daily-sun.com | lineup: Argentina vs Austria at W; decision: price below World Cup EV gate" }, { "blocking_reasons": "price below World Cup EV gate", "consensus_probability": "0.4636", "date_utc": "2026-06-21T22:00:00Z", "decimal_odds": "1.67", "elo_model_probability": "0.4269", "expected_value": "-0.2926", "market": "Under 2.5", "market_1x2_model_probability": "0.4936", "match": "Uruguay v Cape Verde", "min_acceptable_odds": "2.361", "model_probability": "0.4236", "news_status": "news_matched", "odds_age_days": "0", "price_checked_at": "2026-06-21T07:31:54+00:00", "price_source": "The Odds API soccer_fifa_world_cup: Unibet (SE)", "price_status": "no_bet_rechecked_price", "quarter_kelly": "0.0", "recommendation_status": "no_bet_rechecked_price", "row_number": 11, "scope": "world_cup", "settled": "no", "stage": "Group H", "stake_units": "0.0", "status": "no_bet_rechecked_price", "tracking_key": "world_cup:2026-06-21t22:00:00z:uruguay_v_cape_verde:under_2.5", "why": "stress probability 42.4%; price 1.67; conservative EV -29.3%; break-even odds 2.361; bet odds 2.456 for 4% EV; recommendation no_bet_rechecked_price; fresh price check from The Odds API soccer_fifa_world_cup: Unibet (SE) (API); news: injury: Team News: Uruguay vs. Cape Verde injury, suspension list, predicted XIs | World Cup 2026 - Sports Mole | lineup: Uruguay vs Cape Verde Predicted Lineups & Team News - Betfred Insights | lineup: Cape Verde predic; decision: price below World Cup EV gate" }, { "blocking_reasons": "settled result supplied", "consensus_probability": "0.3684", "date_utc": "2026-06-21T00:00:00.000Z", "decimal_odds": "2.0", "elo_model_probability": "0.3283", "expected_value": "-0.3434", "market": "Under 2.5", "market_1x2_model_probability": "0.4012", "match": "Ecuador v Curaçao", "min_acceptable_odds": "3.046", "model_probability": "0.3283", "news_status": "news_matched", "odds_age_days": "44", "price_status": "no_bet_stale_price", "profit_units": "0.0", "quarter_kelly": "0", "recommendation_status": "no_bet_stale_price", "result": "0-0", "row_number": 12, "scope": "world_cup", "settled": "yes", "stage": "Group E", "stake_units": "0.0", "status": "settled_result_supplied", "tracking_key": "world_cup:2026-06-21t00:00:00.000z:ecuador_v_curaçao:under_2.5", "why": "stress probability 32.8%; price 2.00; conservative EV -34.3%; break-even odds 3.046; bet odds 3.168 for 4% EV; recommendation no_bet_stale_price; scraped price age 44 days; news: lineup: Ecuador - Curaçao Line-up: World Cup Football - TNT Sports | lineup: Ecuador vs Curaçao – Official lineups: A PSG player is a starter - MSN | lineup: Ecuador vs Curaçao Lineups, Live Streaming, TV Channels, How a; result 0-0; zero-stake audit: model side hit; decision: settled result supplied", "won": "yes" } ], "news_context": [ { "away": "Curaçao", "checked_at": "2026-06-21T07:32:00.796985+00:00", "date_utc": "2026-06-21T00:00:00.000Z", "home": "Ecuador", "match": "Ecuador v Curaçao", "news": "lineup: Ecuador - Curaçao Line-up: World Cup Football - TNT Sports | lineup: Ecuador vs Curaçao – Official lineups: A PSG player is a starter - MSN | lineup: Ecuador vs Curaçao Lineups, Live Streaming, TV Channels, How and Where to Watch In USA & Other Countries - Athlon Sports", "published_at": "2026-06-21T04:43:14Z | 2026-06-21T02:19:56Z | 2026-06-20T23:32:05Z", "scope": "world_cup", "source": "https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMiowFBVV95cUxQSzdVYkJtSGtMTjFyZkstLXVtYXF0bmh5ckVDREQ2SGpRaUxpQ2owel81QmRLb2l6ekxKdUowc3FCTkRrajJSSFRPYUhBckQ2NDlFTk9zZzZuNUE0eXNEd2o2UjBibkEtSXk0Y25Lc3lHVy15QTh2VG52X2ZfazVXT2ZyVHpNWDBRdTFackk1a2NYNnZqd3NBaUJGZmFSakpfZ29Z?oc=5 | https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMiugFBVV95cUxNeFdvZUMxa09tOGN6TVh2akx6bkNQM1ZlV2xKZG5XRmI5ZXZUbjZDV1B3LXlCMzh3UWlwN182a3R6Ri1hT0dDVm9TZUZXMUxJdW53QTN1QS12M1ZOc1p3SjBjeFlQNEx4Zy1lbWRNakJCU2o4M0llVEdFbGhlekhIQXVDWnBDWWNpeWNVVEdpb0tqMXZkZ1BZbGlNSjJoT3JjdmVOSWRCWVRmTWpITXBoWW43OWI4b3JOVEE?oc=5 | https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMinwFBVV95cUxQOG11Y1ZuaEZZMXE2bmR4NlFIckJmNVVUbkJEYlluU3NJMGpWMzI5TExpN0JKRXhaMkcyOFlYZl80MFgxelhiVlZISEdUQ1NzU3BlUFYwSFFDdHBZcnp3RlEteHRpdFJRT2R0T3BiTHJPVmtkVFY0QTZNS1RHWGNuc0NBel9tMWxTVGxZRDVoX3JiWkhaNDhnWk5MTDYyWVE?oc=5", "stage": "Group E", "stake_gate_cleared": true, "status": "news_matched", "status_label": "news_matched" }, { "away": "Saudi Arabia", "checked_at": "2026-06-21T07:32:00.796985+00:00", "date_utc": "2026-06-21T16:00:00Z", "home": "Spain", "match": "Spain v Saudi Arabia", "news": "lineup: Spain vs. Saudi Arabia predicted lineups, starting 11 for World Cup 2026 Group H game at Mercedes-Benz Stadium - sportingnews.com | lineup: Saudi Arabia XI vs Spain – Predicted lineup and team news - Yahoo Sports | lineup: Spain vs Saudi Arabia – Predicted lineup and team news - Yahoo Sports", "published_at": "2026-06-21T06:20:02Z | 2026-06-21T05:35:00Z | 2026-06-21T05:35:00Z", "scope": "world_cup", "source": "https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMixgFBVV95cUxNcnd5X2RJUXJDV0M5bVhMMUF4aGNtN1pPbkpxSWlhbl9UdnZYS0xLdWNKSHJvUjkyRVlHNG40N0ZtZWw1bVFMV1pnbXZjeU9fMGtSQmxSWG9sWHp5Y0ZUUi1OR0NjSi1xZW1wMjlMaXNjQjhpQ2VOeDMzWWxZd2hiZHFZdkp5SGtjb1F5MHpOMDdkcUpGQUozbXEwdURHeEFlTVB3ZDJhLXg0ZXJNMFVhQ2pQVXFLd1ozWURGZV9XdjRrWVFvWnc?oc=5 | https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMifkFVX3lxTFB4TFFTZEN2aW9MVHdDNGR5eHpUb0V3NG1zWlUwRkVCcFFBa3pjNm1fY3ppZkQxQlBuMXpNNmkxaW1VTldURGpzd1NYbFFZVW9rUXFZZE1sYTVKdTBEMFpXRGpFejRGb3lMOUhpcUQ2a2w2ZzM2VHZKOFhjZXJidw?oc=5 | https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMihwFBVV95cUxQZHdiRlFzVjZFbU45NWs3Sy13N25DbUkyNGh4ekJTZzMwLWktbTl0ZEVxQ0pUS0d6Ri1PQ2EycC15ZEpBWDRxNUNVdFdwZ3dXZ2pQZk9vdVQyOU1rYzExVm5VSFBLY0dhSU81bjhRSkZQakNNSGVwQ0R6Qm96bHdJcGZXcGI5N1E?oc=5", "stage": "Group H", "stake_gate_cleared": true, "status": "news_matched", "status_label": "news_matched" }, { "away": "Iran", "checked_at": "2026-06-21T07:32:00.796985+00:00", "date_utc": "2026-06-21T19:00:00Z", "home": "Belgium", "match": "Belgium v Iran", "news": "injury: Belgium winger Doku ruled out of World Cup match against Iran due to illness - FlashScore UK | lineup: Belgium vs Iran – Predicted lineup and team news - Yahoo Sports | lineup: Belgium vs Iran Predicted Lineups & Team News - Betfred Insights", "published_at": "2026-06-20T22:38:57Z | 2026-06-21T05:35:00Z | 2026-06-20T18:59:06Z", "scope": "world_cup", "source": "https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMivAFBVV95cUxQZ18tR2hhc2tEdE4tRnR0RkZyVTVYbWRmb25ZLVpGZVkzRUIxWjEzRnhPTWI0eU9uVmxGTmVXSVh3b2NTcm5ER29jczV0M0hKem1LTXNWNlFRU1ZvMFZVU0RNRVBZWlNYUWdRaVA3emotOW5yRk5xbzFKWExlR3lLX2xPUDlFZXFEZk5vODZueUVUMzlnSXpQQmZBajdPLTl3cXhqQ01EOFZpdE96V1pGWGtOb0Jya19uaGZsYw?oc=5 | https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMiiAFBVV95cUxNQXZETWdpTHcwMmlZYmNOajhTTW9qQXhEWU5RQ2ltWEZxWnU5S0F3V0tINWtxdTFwZlNNdVBaakNTcHNLbi1nOTZ6YnJEb1Zwank0SWJPdm9ibFF5WERBT0U4d3AtT1RNT3JsTWR3RENpVFB3c2NZLWlneDVBeXlubDQ0clJMajRs?oc=5 | https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMiuAFBVV95cUxNQ0piRjVpYTJHNWxsN21ucWRQajFnOGdlSnpwRTh2cGVJMmh2RnhPTGZmTnQ2ckxOazQ5Y0w3QTNPaGRCcUZHZUFydmRPQzVPOTRKRE1jTkt5eHNmcUl2Wlg0MjFNeDdONFFtclVhSWMwbWNqLTRTMDZ4YURxRHZfeWZtTXp2ZDczY3JhQXdaWWt3Njlac1J1U1E0c2lVaVNYVGU3ZmFBVGRXZjZMNFBrT3JxUGZPMll2?oc=5", "stage": "Group G", "stake_gate_cleared": true, "status": "news_matched", "status_label": "news_matched" }, { "away": "Cape Verde", "checked_at": "2026-06-21T07:32:00.796985+00:00", "date_utc": "2026-06-21T22:00:00Z", "home": "Uruguay", "match": "Uruguay v Cape Verde", "news": "injury: Team News: Uruguay vs. Cape Verde injury, suspension list, predicted XIs | World Cup 2026 - Sports Mole | lineup: Uruguay vs Cape Verde Predicted Lineups & Team News - Betfred Insights | lineup: Cape Verde predicted lineup vs Uruguay for FIFA World Cup 2026 - Khel Now", "published_at": "2026-06-20T22:00:00Z | 2026-06-20T22:00:14Z | 2026-06-20T12:23:11Z", "scope": "world_cup", "source": "https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMi2AFBVV95cUxPRE5TbXpEMTh0SjJnLTR1TFZ6WHFIUjBfLVpJdzktSEdKVEtzeWhnd19oU1NDVUp1Q21IamRxbmZxczd4a1FYTVI2UUY4WUNzMlV4c0FUR0JSdGZvTDJoZlowbHhYSUFidl81UEJEd0lycTNaaDZNT3FBQ3dkalBNNE5vaU1IQmp5Sm5rUHJrT2dha3E2YVRNVjBlT2FlN29PbWxIMTVMY1c0R2F1THgyRXYyYnR0S2l0a2dadkx5NWJOcTlsMmxES285ckNudS1CT2Zha2l2ZGY?oc=5 | https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMiwAFBVV95cUxPVWhqNVFlTHZ5czNoaEpjS2cxT2pfSWhYTUVzOTN1QWtPSWRYNkViRW9vODJlZXdWNUVvbjV6eFQ4VDFTbHUxZ2Rvc05CYU5xbFZtNjNBS2JBNFJhRWxHTDhiMUdvYTJPWjlKSTN6VERqaFhIOWNfSDF2bDFHSzJsell1WTVYdWIzT0oxV0dmaVJVREVtZS1JY045Wk1sZnZSRXZHUnpEb0Y5Ry1lU29qZmlkSEtXZWt1OHVVcDZ6SDU?oc=5 | https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMipwFBVV95cUxNQTcwMUJQTkpEMGZiR0lwRGJkWjN6XzFoOVFMeWlXSjBMNmdENWNMSFFKTVFJZFNoYUYxdHFGVFRKS3AxbHRObnEwTk4yRVhRUnF4amlCeG5qRUhWelhwYUMyT1pTTVJ4cjRIeFFOMDhfWV9wZGRLMFhoOHNObzlxX2luR1dMNXZHaU1USVJHSWdqOU1IbUNLT29nMjJQM1RTSndDWU5LVQ?oc=5", "stage": "Group H", "stake_gate_cleared": true, "status": "news_matched", "status_label": "news_matched" }, { "away": "Egypt", "checked_at": "2026-06-21T07:32:00.796985+00:00", "date_utc": "2026-06-22T01:00:00Z", "home": "New Zealand", "match": "New Zealand v Egypt", "news": "lineup: Egypt predicted lineup and team news vs New Zealand - Yahoo Sports Canada | lineup: New Zealand vs Egypt Predicted Lineups & Team News - Betfred Insights | availability: David Raya: ‘When you lose a Champions League final it destroys you inside’ - The goalkeeper discusses being bullied by 35-year-olds in the English fifth tier, winning the Premier League and competition in the Spain...", "published_at": "2026-06-21T05:35:00Z | 2026-06-21T01:00:40Z | 2026-06-20T11:00:04Z", "scope": "world_cup", "source": "https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMihwFBVV95cUxQUDNDcjJ4NndGZFNCTHlERER0UWN0ZXJEMVZUYnRxTUxOd1BmeEtNbGNzWTE5Z1hMWElaWUhBVmV5Rm9jTDVCTDU5c2JoSjVPNE1USW9DTUpzU2o5UEV4SXdGXzFYMzBkTlpaNkNtZEYzZnhqQU5rY2lPWFdEUHRGUnZxdWFFWHc?oc=5 | https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMivwFBVV95cUxPX1FrWFVEeEt0bU5veWpSVFB4S3BUaWJ4WkVEeGVNTHBPT1B5NXVlakhRYVl1UnF1c3ZaNjFPRlNuNHI3T041N0pMaEZZVFk4S01WbzJ2WjV6SzBxZXVPWGoxWVVtSjVMUWtkNGNEbDQ1YnpkZDhsUHd2elI3dGtQOHVFWXhvazl2ajNSWDZpU3RsSjNGbU43WmxRa1R3dnUtbG84WlpzWFZTUE5qcnlDQmRRMy1VazRGNDI4bUl0QQ?oc=5 | https://www.theguardian.com/football/2026/jun/20/david-raya-when-you-lose-a-champions-league-final-it-destroys-you-inside", "stage": "Group G", "stake_gate_cleared": true, "status": "news_matched", "status_label": "news_matched" }, { "away": "Austria", "checked_at": "2026-06-21T07:32:00.796985+00:00", "date_utc": "2026-06-22T17:00:00Z", "home": "Argentina", "match": "Argentina v Austria", "news": "injury: Argentina Dealt Severe Injury Blow Ahead of Crucial Austria Clash - The Daily Campus | lineup: Argentina hint at multiple changes to starting XI against Austria - daily-sun.com | lineup: Argentina vs Austria at World Cup 2026: TV channel, how to watch, kick-off time, live stream, referee, predicted line-ups - ESPN", "published_at": "2026-06-20T09:10:16Z | 2026-06-21T06:29:02Z | 2026-06-20T18:50:00Z", "scope": "world_cup", "source": "https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMiX0FVX3lxTE96cjhJQ0FQbS1WVjRMcXVlNDNiZGxFa0hNS1VWQ3hSME1SUzZfN3VDU0dySWdkWlB2OFJkcHpXcjhFbzhrSjhiRlNMc1hNUnlUbHRBYkctLXdJQ1gzM1dr?oc=5 | https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMiqAFBVV95cUxQLUNCMXVhWlg3cG1KTW9ldGNjS0pFYmtLei1ZLUxpcThWeFlQeWRUWjExUjlqcUdkSEsySDZ3TGVrTGFqM0J0bXhuT2tDYVkxTWdMUEg4NWo1UlMwX3ljdlNxYU4xU0dhUjYxd3otSU1nemtrS2dseDBHVXhyX2R6OEZGQVp4WWcwNV9uaXpYVTFQLWwya1h6WF9IRnRDZmhKSi1WWllwc2c?oc=5 | https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMi7AFBVV95cUxQUEhYOG5TcVZNekNENnkxS3YyQTVfVWJSeF8wS0xjU1hWRDV6a0lYeTlmcU5KbEVadDAxajd0anB5SE5NYjNKMUpUZ1BaOFdiemxKbWdiRlg5dU0wODFlSUE4TVNPZmdneENjbS11RXhhLWJKODRCQlBjX2xYYnAwQ0hnV1p3NWp3eWxEcjFWNzRlWHJMbGNNWVVqNXdKdUlrZk0yN1kzVUl5aU1CaEc3bldmUVZfN05jSDBMTXgzY2gzOWpBbVlCcC02VjRQWWpMWDVmR2Vtd2s0RFEtekRxMzVZUVoyRjhGb3ctRA?oc=5", "stage": "Group J", "stake_gate_cleared": true, "status": "news_matched", "status_label": "news_matched" }, { "away": "Iraq", "checked_at": "2026-06-21T07:32:00.796985+00:00", "date_utc": "2026-06-22T21:00:00Z", "home": "France", "match": "France v Iraq", "news": "lineup: France vs Iraq: Three changes expected in France’s lineup - MSN | lineup: France vs Iraq – The French lineup announced with changes including Barcola - MSN | lineup: France vs Iraq – The French lineup announced with changes including Barcola - MSN", "published_at": "2026-06-20T13:20:58Z | 2026-06-20T10:14:38Z | 2026-06-20T08:18:47Z", "scope": "world_cup", "source": "https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMivgJBVV95cUxPQ1d5UW9aN2phbUhFdk1LR1ViQXlVbkkxajFub1o3d1FXS3ZRa3E0WGFlNXZ5aGRiZElHSmJYNkpFYmhNZTFWRmR1YlZ2dzZqd214SVQ4OUVYcjFkZ2tPclN5UVFwSndtTGhuOHpMaS1UYXQ4ZFhFeVJ1bnlycVRjSGJUOHlFZ1M2UlpDbnJYV3RqNEtJTGtmQk9sbEVFaXVOYWc5aXB6U2tlcGZPMm1lLTBKRG5rM1VPR3hXLXBkaHh0RHdiZWpiTThnVWtxek9JcGE4TzUtSmhqXzc3ZXZraFBZZ3hvdDEtVms5WnNBU3pNODNYbXYzMjE4dlJTa0tfRzVFNkZoWkZMbExuRGljVHZTYVh3WTBBOEZRdm9SZVZ4RHludExjZWlpMThpSm5KVUVxd0Y0YzlHNkxReGc?oc=5 | https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMi2AJBVV95cUxQazMzVUVXOWpIM1huZmYtXzRLMlVBOU9aLVFpREhGQUlIeVIyWDdGdDlnYmZILTdsOHo4QktuNGgtUFNRNW5UMkk3Zkpnc0w2Unp6eURWOWh6QmFhRzJkVmNydmFxS0pyOEotUmpmamdoSjl1d0g3V0hfcmlXYnRZVkZ2VUE2bklGSHFreFdDUmlKTzRSUmtUek9ydkk2Nkd4Nk9VbFpjM1Q3VmNVZHM2Z0d2MlJDSUdHZjE0ZF9FaklkRlNYcXN3dWtBVVF4WHBnX0VfRHN1RDd2WVJ1d21aZlR0OTc4cjFNaGQtRG1tR2xQUTA3TWdSM2VnMVdRMkx2UXlCamtkVmQzQjZHSzBVWXhNY3NFcTktLUJiOU54R1F4TXN2ZjdYQnVaMU0tQTl3eDVqVGhvZkhjbXg3alRjNEE1Y0kyTnRlUUVyQzVNYWJHNWhTZ2ZtYw?oc=5 | https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMiwgFBVV95cUxOakJ1dzBtV3dTNi1qdkRwVGRndHNvNjdqSzYxNTR0RFo3VDB4ejVXTHVNejRqTlRBb2hyaVRlODBXb3BENU85TV9XMnROY2JvTzJaR3hubUFMSXp6RFdsbVRucElNdkh0a0NDd2FQZlFvYkU1UkF0N0xMMTdSZV96bjBKdi1GRFZCMkxVSURMdWlZb1dHNV9kZkt4UWFqWk82SE9PS1l4VDhFZ2trVzZjeHh3NUR5bEMyWFlpYXlJT2g4dw?oc=5", "stage": "Group I", "stake_gate_cleared": true, "status": "news_matched", "status_label": "news_matched" } ], "next_action_row": { "action_type": "watch_price", "command": "python3 record_price_check.py --action-row 1 --decimal-odds LIVE_DECIMAL_ODDS --min-decimal-odds 2.198 --source \"OPERATOR_BOOKMAKER\" --notes \"live trigger price\"", "command_template": { "instruction": "Replace LIVE_DECIMAL_ODDS=live bookmaker price; OPERATOR_BOOKMAKER=bookmaker/source checked before running template commands.", "mode": "template", "placeholders": [ { "field": "decimal_odds", "kind": "decimal_odds", "label": "Live decimal odds", "minimum": "2.198", "placeholder": "LIVE_DECIMAL_ODDS", "required": true }, { "field": "source", "kind": "operator_source", "label": "Bookmaker/operator", "placeholder": "OPERATOR_BOOKMAKER", "required": true } ], "requires_replacement": true }, "commands": { "preview_price": "python3 record_price_check.py --action-row 1 --decimal-odds LIVE_DECIMAL_ODDS --min-decimal-odds 2.198 --source \"OPERATOR_BOOKMAKER\" --notes \"live trigger price\" --dry-run", "record_price": "python3 record_price_check.py --action-row 1 --decimal-odds LIVE_DECIMAL_ODDS --min-decimal-odds 2.198 --source \"OPERATOR_BOOKMAKER\" --notes \"live trigger price\"", "record_price_and_refresh": "python3 record_price_check.py --action-row 1 --decimal-odds LIVE_DECIMAL_ODDS --min-decimal-odds 2.198 --source \"OPERATOR_BOOKMAKER\" --notes \"live trigger price\" --answer-mode --rerun-after-record", "rerun": "./run_daily_goal.sh 2026-06-21 2" }, "date_utc": "2026-06-21T19:00:00Z", "expected_value": "0.0034", "input_fields": [ { "kind": "decimal_odds", "label": "Live decimal odds", "minimum": "2.198", "name": "decimal_odds", "placeholder": "LIVE_DECIMAL_ODDS", "required": true }, { "kind": "operator_source", "label": "Bookmaker/operator", "name": "source", "placeholder": "OPERATOR_BOOKMAKER", "required": true }, { "default": "live trigger price", "kind": "text", "label": "Notes", "name": "notes", "required": false } ], "kickoff_local": "2026-06-21T20:00+01:00", "market": "Under 2.5", "match": "Belgium v Iran", "model_probability": "0.4733", "needed_input": "price", "needed_odds": "2.198", "news_command": "", "preview_command": "python3 record_price_check.py --action-row 1 --decimal-odds LIVE_DECIMAL_ODDS --min-decimal-odds 2.198 --source \"OPERATOR_BOOKMAKER\" --notes \"live trigger price\" --dry-run", "price_move": "+0.078 (3.7%)", "priority": "2", "recommendation": "WATCH_ONLY", "refresh_command": "python3 record_price_check.py --action-row 1 --decimal-odds LIVE_DECIMAL_ODDS --min-decimal-odds 2.198 --source \"OPERATOR_BOOKMAKER\" --notes \"live trigger price\" --answer-mode --rerun-after-record", "rerun_command": "./run_daily_goal.sh 2026-06-21 2", "row_number": 1, "scope": "world_cup", "seen_odds": "2.12", "source": "The Odds API soccer_fifa_world_cup: Matchbook (API)", "stake_units": "0", "thresholds": { "expected_value": "0.0034", "kickoff_local": "2026-06-21T20:00+01:00", "model_probability": "0.4733", "needed_odds": "2.198", "price_move": "+0.078 (3.7%)", "seen_odds": "2.12", "source": "The Odds API soccer_fifa_world_cup: Matchbook (API)", "stake_units": "0", "watch_rank": "1", "watch_window": "in 9h 28m; final 2026-06-21T19:40+01:00" }, "watch_rank": "1", "watch_window": "in 9h 28m; final 2026-06-21T19:40+01:00", "why": "No stake now; watch for 2.198+ model price trigger and complete price, then rerun. stress probability 47.3%; price 2.12; conservative EV 0.3%; break-even odds 2.113; bet odds 2.198 for 4% EV; recommendation no_bet_rechecked_price; fresh price check from The Odds API soccer_fifa_world_cup: Matchbook (API); news: injury: Belgium winger Doku ruled out of World Cup match against Iran due to illness - FlashScore UK | lineup: Belgium vs Iran – Predicted lineup and team news - Yahoo Sports | lineup: Belgium vs Iran Predicted Lineups &; decision: price below World Cup EV gate", "workflow": { "command_template": { "instruction": "Replace LIVE_DECIMAL_ODDS=live bookmaker price; OPERATOR_BOOKMAKER=bookmaker/source checked before running template commands.", "mode": "template", "placeholders": [ { "field": "decimal_odds", "kind": "decimal_odds", "label": "Live decimal odds", "minimum": "2.198", "placeholder": "LIVE_DECIMAL_ODDS", "required": true }, { "field": "source", "kind": "operator_source", "label": "Bookmaker/operator", "placeholder": "OPERATOR_BOOKMAKER", "required": true } ], "requires_replacement": true }, "commands": { "preview_price": "python3 record_price_check.py --action-row 1 --decimal-odds LIVE_DECIMAL_ODDS --min-decimal-odds 2.198 --source \"OPERATOR_BOOKMAKER\" --notes \"live trigger price\" --dry-run", "record_price": "python3 record_price_check.py --action-row 1 --decimal-odds LIVE_DECIMAL_ODDS --min-decimal-odds 2.198 --source \"OPERATOR_BOOKMAKER\" --notes \"live trigger price\"", "record_price_and_refresh": "python3 record_price_check.py --action-row 1 --decimal-odds LIVE_DECIMAL_ODDS --min-decimal-odds 2.198 --source \"OPERATOR_BOOKMAKER\" --notes \"live trigger price\" --answer-mode --rerun-after-record", "rerun": "./run_daily_goal.sh 2026-06-21 2" }, "input_fields": [ { "kind": "decimal_odds", "label": "Live decimal odds", "minimum": "2.198", "name": "decimal_odds", "placeholder": "LIVE_DECIMAL_ODDS", "required": true }, { "kind": "operator_source", "label": "Bookmaker/operator", "name": "source", "placeholder": "OPERATOR_BOOKMAKER", "required": true }, { "default": "live trigger price", "kind": "text", "label": "Notes", "name": "notes", "required": false } ], "next_step": "preview_price", "thresholds": { "expected_value": "0.0034", "kickoff_local": "2026-06-21T20:00+01:00", "model_probability": "0.4733", "needed_odds": "2.198", "price_move": "+0.078 (3.7%)", "seen_odds": "2.12", "source": "The Odds API soccer_fifa_world_cup: Matchbook (API)", "stake_units": "0", "watch_rank": "1", "watch_window": "in 9h 28m; final 2026-06-21T19:40+01:00" } } }, "next_actions": [ "Stake: none. No row passed all freshness, news, calibration, strategy, and EV gates.", "No-bet: 9 World Cup operator/API price rows were checked and still sit below the EV gate; closest confirmed price is Belgium v Iran Under 2.5 current 2.12 from The Odds API soccer_fifa_world_cup: Matchbook (API) (EV 0.3%; needs 2.198+ for the 4% EV gate; needed input: price).", "Next watch: Belgium v Iran Under 2.5 kicks off 2026-06-21T20:00+01:00; watch in 9h 28m; final 2026-06-21T19:40+01:00; seen 2.12, needs 2.198+ (+0.078 (3.7%)); needed input: price.", "Next watch command template: if Belgium v Iran Under 2.5 reaches 2.198+ model price trigger, replace `LIVE_DECIMAL_ODDS` with the live bookmaker price and `OPERATOR_BOOKMAKER` with the bookmaker/source you checked before running; run `python3 record_price_check.py --action-row 1 --decimal-odds LIVE_DECIMAL_ODDS --min-decimal-odds 2.198 --source \"OPERATOR_BOOKMAKER\" --notes \"live trigger price\" --dry-run`, then `python3 record_price_check.py --action-row 1 --decimal-odds LIVE_DECIMAL_ODDS --min-decimal-odds 2.198 --source \"OPERATOR_BOOKMAKER\" --notes \"live trigger price\" --answer-mode --rerun-after-record`.", "Market coverage: 1 World Cup fixture(s) have no evaluated market rows in `results/world_cup_market_checks.csv`; refresh World Cup market artifacts before betting: Spain v Saudi Arabia.", "Domestic: API key is set, but no domestic fixtures with supported totals odds are in this window.", "Evidence: no settled staked recommendations yet; keep any first live stakes tiny until the ledger has real outcomes." ], "next_step": "preview_price", "next_watch_row": { "action_type": "watch_price", "command": "python3 record_price_check.py --action-row 1 --decimal-odds LIVE_DECIMAL_ODDS --min-decimal-odds 2.198 --source \"OPERATOR_BOOKMAKER\" --notes \"live trigger price\"", "command_template": { "instruction": "Replace LIVE_DECIMAL_ODDS=live bookmaker price; OPERATOR_BOOKMAKER=bookmaker/source checked before running template commands.", "mode": "template", "placeholders": [ { "field": "decimal_odds", "kind": "decimal_odds", "label": "Live decimal odds", "minimum": "2.198", "placeholder": "LIVE_DECIMAL_ODDS", "required": true }, { "field": "source", "kind": "operator_source", "label": "Bookmaker/operator", "placeholder": "OPERATOR_BOOKMAKER", "required": true } ], "requires_replacement": true }, "commands": { "preview_price": "python3 record_price_check.py --action-row 1 --decimal-odds LIVE_DECIMAL_ODDS --min-decimal-odds 2.198 --source \"OPERATOR_BOOKMAKER\" --notes \"live trigger price\" --dry-run", "record_price": "python3 record_price_check.py --action-row 1 --decimal-odds LIVE_DECIMAL_ODDS --min-decimal-odds 2.198 --source \"OPERATOR_BOOKMAKER\" --notes \"live trigger price\"", "record_price_and_refresh": "python3 record_price_check.py --action-row 1 --decimal-odds LIVE_DECIMAL_ODDS --min-decimal-odds 2.198 --source \"OPERATOR_BOOKMAKER\" --notes \"live trigger price\" --answer-mode --rerun-after-record", "rerun": "./run_daily_goal.sh 2026-06-21 2" }, "date_utc": "2026-06-21T19:00:00Z", "expected_value": "0.0034", "input_fields": [ { "kind": "decimal_odds", "label": "Live decimal odds", "minimum": "2.198", "name": "decimal_odds", "placeholder": "LIVE_DECIMAL_ODDS", "required": true }, { "kind": "operator_source", "label": "Bookmaker/operator", "name": "source", "placeholder": "OPERATOR_BOOKMAKER", "required": true }, { "default": "live trigger price", "kind": "text", "label": "Notes", "name": "notes", "required": false } ], "kickoff_local": "2026-06-21T20:00+01:00", "market": "Under 2.5", "match": "Belgium v Iran", "model_probability": "0.4733", "needed_input": "price", "needed_odds": "2.198", "news_command": "", "preview_command": "python3 record_price_check.py --action-row 1 --decimal-odds LIVE_DECIMAL_ODDS --min-decimal-odds 2.198 --source \"OPERATOR_BOOKMAKER\" --notes \"live trigger price\" --dry-run", "price_move": "+0.078 (3.7%)", "priority": "2", "recommendation": "WATCH_ONLY", "refresh_command": "python3 record_price_check.py --action-row 1 --decimal-odds LIVE_DECIMAL_ODDS --min-decimal-odds 2.198 --source \"OPERATOR_BOOKMAKER\" --notes \"live trigger price\" --answer-mode --rerun-after-record", "rerun_command": "./run_daily_goal.sh 2026-06-21 2", "row_number": 1, "scope": "world_cup", "seen_odds": "2.12", "source": "The Odds API soccer_fifa_world_cup: Matchbook (API)", "stake_units": "0", "thresholds": { "expected_value": "0.0034", "kickoff_local": "2026-06-21T20:00+01:00", "model_probability": "0.4733", "needed_odds": "2.198", "price_move": "+0.078 (3.7%)", "seen_odds": "2.12", "source": "The Odds API soccer_fifa_world_cup: Matchbook (API)", "stake_units": "0", "watch_rank": "1", "watch_window": "in 9h 28m; final 2026-06-21T19:40+01:00" }, "watch_rank": "1", "watch_window": "in 9h 28m; final 2026-06-21T19:40+01:00", "why": "No stake now; watch for 2.198+ model price trigger and complete price, then rerun. stress probability 47.3%; price 2.12; conservative EV 0.3%; break-even odds 2.113; bet odds 2.198 for 4% EV; recommendation no_bet_rechecked_price; fresh price check from The Odds API soccer_fifa_world_cup: Matchbook (API); news: injury: Belgium winger Doku ruled out of World Cup match against Iran due to illness - FlashScore UK | lineup: Belgium vs Iran – Predicted lineup and team news - Yahoo Sports | lineup: Belgium vs Iran Predicted Lineups &; decision: price below World Cup EV gate", "workflow": { "command_template": { "instruction": "Replace LIVE_DECIMAL_ODDS=live bookmaker price; OPERATOR_BOOKMAKER=bookmaker/source checked before running template commands.", "mode": "template", "placeholders": [ { "field": "decimal_odds", "kind": "decimal_odds", "label": "Live decimal odds", "minimum": "2.198", "placeholder": "LIVE_DECIMAL_ODDS", "required": true }, { "field": "source", "kind": "operator_source", "label": "Bookmaker/operator", "placeholder": "OPERATOR_BOOKMAKER", "required": true } ], "requires_replacement": true }, "commands": { "preview_price": "python3 record_price_check.py --action-row 1 --decimal-odds LIVE_DECIMAL_ODDS --min-decimal-odds 2.198 --source \"OPERATOR_BOOKMAKER\" --notes \"live trigger price\" --dry-run", "record_price": "python3 record_price_check.py --action-row 1 --decimal-odds LIVE_DECIMAL_ODDS --min-decimal-odds 2.198 --source \"OPERATOR_BOOKMAKER\" --notes \"live trigger price\"", "record_price_and_refresh": "python3 record_price_check.py --action-row 1 --decimal-odds LIVE_DECIMAL_ODDS --min-decimal-odds 2.198 --source \"OPERATOR_BOOKMAKER\" --notes \"live trigger price\" --answer-mode --rerun-after-record", "rerun": "./run_daily_goal.sh 2026-06-21 2" }, "input_fields": [ { "kind": "decimal_odds", "label": "Live decimal odds", "minimum": "2.198", "name": "decimal_odds", "placeholder": "LIVE_DECIMAL_ODDS", "required": true }, { "kind": "operator_source", "label": "Bookmaker/operator", "name": "source", "placeholder": "OPERATOR_BOOKMAKER", "required": true }, { "default": "live trigger price", "kind": "text", "label": "Notes", "name": "notes", "required": false } ], "next_step": "preview_price", "thresholds": { "expected_value": "0.0034", "kickoff_local": "2026-06-21T20:00+01:00", "model_probability": "0.4733", "needed_odds": "2.198", "price_move": "+0.078 (3.7%)", "seen_odds": "2.12", "source": "The Odds API soccer_fifa_world_cup: Matchbook (API)", "stake_units": "0", "watch_rank": "1", "watch_window": "in 9h 28m; final 2026-06-21T19:40+01:00" } } }, "normal_stake_allowed": false, "one_line": "No bet now. Next kickoff watch: Belgium v Iran Under 2.5; record only if a real bookmaker reaches 2.198+.", "operator_answer": { "action": "watch_price", "action_slate": { "price_watches": 6, "proof_candidates": 0, "stake_candidates": 0, "state": "price_watch_only", "total": 6 }, "actual_slips": { "input_issues": 0, "normal_stake_placed": 0, "normal_stake_profit_units": 0, "normal_stake_roi": 0.0, "normal_stake_settled": 0, "normal_stake_settled_stake_units": 0, "open": 0, "open_stake_units": 0, "placed": 0, "profit_units": 0, "proof_only_placed": 0, "proof_only_profit_units": 0, "proof_only_roi": 0.0, "proof_only_settled": 0, "proof_only_settled_stake_units": 0, "roi": 0.0, "settled": 0, "settled_stake_units": 0, "source": "data/actual_bets.csv", "unclassified_placed": 0, "unclassified_profit_units": 0, "unclassified_roi": 0.0, "unclassified_settled": 0, "unclassified_settled_stake_units": 0 }, "bet_now": "none", "bet_permission": "none", "closest_trigger": { "command_template": { "instruction": "Replace LIVE_DECIMAL_ODDS=live bookmaker price; OPERATOR_BOOKMAKER=bookmaker/source checked before running template commands.", "mode": "template", "placeholders": [ { "field": "decimal_odds", "kind": "decimal_odds", "label": "Live decimal odds", "minimum": "2.198", "placeholder": "LIVE_DECIMAL_ODDS", "required": true }, { "field": "source", "kind": "operator_source", "label": "Bookmaker/operator", "placeholder": "OPERATOR_BOOKMAKER", "required": true } ], "requires_replacement": true }, "commands": { "preview_price": "python3 record_price_check.py --action-row 1 --decimal-odds LIVE_DECIMAL_ODDS --min-decimal-odds 2.198 --source \"OPERATOR_BOOKMAKER\" --notes \"live trigger price\" --dry-run", "record_price": "python3 record_price_check.py --action-row 1 --decimal-odds LIVE_DECIMAL_ODDS --min-decimal-odds 2.198 --source \"OPERATOR_BOOKMAKER\" --notes \"live trigger price\"", "record_price_and_refresh": "python3 record_price_check.py --action-row 1 --decimal-odds LIVE_DECIMAL_ODDS --min-decimal-odds 2.198 --source \"OPERATOR_BOOKMAKER\" --notes \"live trigger price\" --answer-mode --rerun-after-record", "rerun": "./run_daily_goal.sh 2026-06-21 2" }, "expected_value": "0.0034", "input_fields": [ { "kind": "decimal_odds", "label": "Live decimal odds", "minimum": "2.198", "name": "decimal_odds", "placeholder": "LIVE_DECIMAL_ODDS", "required": true }, { "kind": "operator_source", "label": "Bookmaker/operator", "name": "source", "placeholder": "OPERATOR_BOOKMAKER", "required": true }, { "default": "live trigger price", "kind": "text", "label": "Notes", "name": "notes", "required": false } ], "kickoff_local": "2026-06-21T20:00+01:00", "market": "Under 2.5", "match": "Belgium v Iran", "model_probability": "0.4733", "needed_input": "price", "needed_odds": "2.198", "news": { "checked_at": "2026-06-21T07:32:00.796985+00:00", "published_at": "2026-06-20T22:38:57Z | 2026-06-21T05:35:00Z | 2026-06-20T18:59:06Z", "source": "https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMivAFBVV95cUxQZ18tR2hhc2tEdE4tRnR0RkZyVTVYbWRmb25ZLVpGZVkzRUIxWjEzRnhPTWI0eU9uVmxGTmVXSVh3b2NTcm5ER29jczV0M0hKem1LTXNWNlFRU1ZvMFZVU0RNRVBZWlNYUWdRaVA3emotOW5yRk5xbzFKWExlR3lLX2xPUDlFZXFEZk5vODZueUVUMzlnSXpQQmZBajdPLTl3cXhqQ01EOFZpdE96V1pGWGtOb0Jya19uaGZsYw?oc=5 | https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMiiAFBVV95cUxNQXZETWdpTHcwMmlZYmNOajhTTW9qQXhEWU5RQ2ltWEZxWnU5S0F3V0tINWtxdTFwZlNNdVBaakNTcHNLbi1nOTZ6YnJEb1Zwank0SWJPdm9ibFF5WERBT0U4d3AtT1RNT3JsTWR3RENpVFB3c2NZLWlneDVBeXlubDQ0clJMajRs?oc=5 | https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMiuAFBVV95cUxNQ0piRjVpYTJHNWxsN21ucWRQajFnOGdlSnpwRTh2cGVJMmh2RnhPTGZmTnQ2ckxOazQ5Y0w3QTNPaGRCcUZHZUFydmRPQzVPOTRKRE1jTkt5eHNmcUl2Wlg0MjFNeDdONFFtclVhSWMwbWNqLTRTMDZ4YURxRHZfeWZtTXp2ZDczY3JhQXdaWWt3Njlac1J1U1E0c2lVaVNYVGU3ZmFBVGRXZjZMNFBrT3JxUGZPMll2?oc=5", "stake_gate_cleared": true, "status": "news_matched", "status_label": "news_matched", "summary": "injury: Belgium winger Doku ruled out of World Cup match against Iran due to illness - FlashScore UK | lineup: Belgium vs Iran – Predicted lineup and team news - Yahoo Sports | lineup: Belgium vs Iran Predicted Lineups & Team News - Betfred Insights" }, "price_move": "+0.078 (3.7%)", "role": "closest_price_trigger", "row_number": 1, "seen_odds": "2.12", "source": "The Odds API soccer_fifa_world_cup: Matchbook (API)", "stake_units": "0", "watch_window": "in 9h 28m; final 2026-06-21T19:40+01:00", "why": "No stake now; watch for 2.198+ model price trigger and complete price, then rerun. stress probability 47.3%; price 2.12; conservative EV 0.3%; break-even odds 2.113; bet odds 2.198 for 4% EV; recommendation no_bet_rechecked_price; fresh price check from The Odds API soccer_fifa_world_cup: Matchbook (API); news: injury: Belgium winger Doku ruled out of World Cup match against Iran due to illness - FlashScore UK | lineup: Belgium vs Iran – Predicted lineup and team news - Yahoo Sports | lineup: Belgium vs Iran Predicted Lineups &; decision: price below World Cup EV gate" }, "command_template": { "instruction": "Replace LIVE_DECIMAL_ODDS=live bookmaker price; OPERATOR_BOOKMAKER=bookmaker/source checked before running template commands.", "mode": "template", "placeholders": [ { "field": "decimal_odds", "kind": "decimal_odds", "label": "Live decimal odds", "minimum": "2.198", "placeholder": "LIVE_DECIMAL_ODDS", "required": true }, { "field": "source", "kind": "operator_source", "label": "Bookmaker/operator", "placeholder": "OPERATOR_BOOKMAKER", "required": true } ], "requires_replacement": true }, "commands": { "preview_price": "python3 record_price_check.py --action-row 1 --decimal-odds LIVE_DECIMAL_ODDS --min-decimal-odds 2.198 --source \"OPERATOR_BOOKMAKER\" --notes \"live trigger price\" --dry-run", "record_price": "python3 record_price_check.py --action-row 1 --decimal-odds LIVE_DECIMAL_ODDS --min-decimal-odds 2.198 --source \"OPERATOR_BOOKMAKER\" --notes \"live trigger price\"", "record_price_and_refresh": "python3 record_price_check.py --action-row 1 --decimal-odds LIVE_DECIMAL_ODDS --min-decimal-odds 2.198 --source \"OPERATOR_BOOKMAKER\" --notes \"live trigger price\" --answer-mode --rerun-after-record", "rerun": "./run_daily_goal.sh 2026-06-21 2" }, "gate_reason": "no stake; seen 2.12 is EV 0.3%; needs 2.198+; operator/API price confirmed; news gate cleared", "input_fields": [ { "kind": "decimal_odds", "label": "Live decimal odds", "minimum": "2.198", "name": "decimal_odds", "placeholder": "LIVE_DECIMAL_ODDS", "required": true }, { "kind": "operator_source", "label": "Bookmaker/operator", "name": "source", "placeholder": "OPERATOR_BOOKMAKER", "required": true }, { "default": "live trigger price", "kind": "text", "label": "Notes", "name": "notes", "required": false } ], "model": { "expected_value": "0.0034", "probability": "0.4733" }, "needed_input": "price", "needed_odds": "2.198", "news": { "checked_at": "2026-06-21T07:32:00.796985+00:00", "published_at": "2026-06-20T22:38:57Z | 2026-06-21T05:35:00Z | 2026-06-20T18:59:06Z", "source": "https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMivAFBVV95cUxQZ18tR2hhc2tEdE4tRnR0RkZyVTVYbWRmb25ZLVpGZVkzRUIxWjEzRnhPTWI0eU9uVmxGTmVXSVh3b2NTcm5ER29jczV0M0hKem1LTXNWNlFRU1ZvMFZVU0RNRVBZWlNYUWdRaVA3emotOW5yRk5xbzFKWExlR3lLX2xPUDlFZXFEZk5vODZueUVUMzlnSXpQQmZBajdPLTl3cXhqQ01EOFZpdE96V1pGWGtOb0Jya19uaGZsYw?oc=5 | https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMiiAFBVV95cUxNQXZETWdpTHcwMmlZYmNOajhTTW9qQXhEWU5RQ2ltWEZxWnU5S0F3V0tINWtxdTFwZlNNdVBaakNTcHNLbi1nOTZ6YnJEb1Zwank0SWJPdm9ibFF5WERBT0U4d3AtT1RNT3JsTWR3RENpVFB3c2NZLWlneDVBeXlubDQ0clJMajRs?oc=5 | https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMiuAFBVV95cUxNQ0piRjVpYTJHNWxsN21ucWRQajFnOGdlSnpwRTh2cGVJMmh2RnhPTGZmTnQ2ckxOazQ5Y0w3QTNPaGRCcUZHZUFydmRPQzVPOTRKRE1jTkt5eHNmcUl2Wlg0MjFNeDdONFFtclVhSWMwbWNqLTRTMDZ4YURxRHZfeWZtTXp2ZDczY3JhQXdaWWt3Njlac1J1U1E0c2lVaVNYVGU3ZmFBVGRXZjZMNFBrT3JxUGZPMll2?oc=5", "stake_gate_cleared": true, "status": "news_matched", "status_label": "news_matched", "summary": "injury: Belgium winger Doku ruled out of World Cup match against Iran due to illness - FlashScore UK | lineup: Belgium vs Iran – Predicted lineup and team news - Yahoo Sports | lineup: Belgium vs Iran Predicted Lineups & Team News - Betfred Insights" }, "news_slate": { "notes": [ { "checked_at": "2026-06-21T07:32:00.796985+00:00", "match": "Ecuador v Curaçao", "signals": [ "lineup" ], "stake_gate_cleared": true, "status": "news_matched" }, { "checked_at": "2026-06-21T07:32:00.796985+00:00", "match": "Spain v Saudi Arabia", "signals": [ "lineup" ], "stake_gate_cleared": true, "status": "news_matched" }, { "checked_at": "2026-06-21T07:32:00.796985+00:00", "match": "Belgium v Iran", "signals": [ "injury", "lineup" ], "stake_gate_cleared": true, "status": "news_matched" }, { "checked_at": "2026-06-21T07:32:00.796985+00:00", "match": "Uruguay v Cape Verde", "signals": [ "injury", "lineup" ], "stake_gate_cleared": true, "status": "news_matched" }, { "checked_at": "2026-06-21T07:32:00.796985+00:00", "match": "New Zealand v Egypt", "signals": [ "lineup", "availability" ], "stake_gate_cleared": true, "status": "news_matched" }, { "checked_at": "2026-06-21T07:32:00.796985+00:00", "match": "Argentina v Austria", "signals": [ "injury", "lineup" ], "stake_gate_cleared": true, "status": "news_matched" }, { "checked_at": "2026-06-21T07:32:00.796985+00:00", "match": "France v Iraq", "signals": [ "lineup" ], "stake_gate_cleared": true, "status": "news_matched" } ], "stake_gate_cleared": 7, "stake_gate_pending": 0, "statuses": { "news_matched": 7 }, "total": 7 }, "next_market": "Under 2.5", "next_match": "Belgium v Iran", "next_step": "preview_price", "next_watch": { "command_template": { "instruction": "Replace LIVE_DECIMAL_ODDS=live bookmaker price; OPERATOR_BOOKMAKER=bookmaker/source checked before running template commands.", "mode": "template", "placeholders": [ { "field": "decimal_odds", "kind": "decimal_odds", "label": "Live decimal odds", "minimum": "2.198", "placeholder": "LIVE_DECIMAL_ODDS", "required": true }, { "field": "source", "kind": "operator_source", "label": "Bookmaker/operator", "placeholder": "OPERATOR_BOOKMAKER", "required": true } ], "requires_replacement": true }, "commands": { "preview_price": "python3 record_price_check.py --action-row 1 --decimal-odds LIVE_DECIMAL_ODDS --min-decimal-odds 2.198 --source \"OPERATOR_BOOKMAKER\" --notes \"live trigger price\" --dry-run", "record_price": "python3 record_price_check.py --action-row 1 --decimal-odds LIVE_DECIMAL_ODDS --min-decimal-odds 2.198 --source \"OPERATOR_BOOKMAKER\" --notes \"live trigger price\"", "record_price_and_refresh": "python3 record_price_check.py --action-row 1 --decimal-odds LIVE_DECIMAL_ODDS --min-decimal-odds 2.198 --source \"OPERATOR_BOOKMAKER\" --notes \"live trigger price\" --answer-mode --rerun-after-record", "rerun": "./run_daily_goal.sh 2026-06-21 2" }, "expected_value": "0.0034", "input_fields": [ { "kind": "decimal_odds", "label": "Live decimal odds", "minimum": "2.198", "name": "decimal_odds", "placeholder": "LIVE_DECIMAL_ODDS", "required": true }, { "kind": "operator_source", "label": "Bookmaker/operator", "name": "source", "placeholder": "OPERATOR_BOOKMAKER", "required": true }, { "default": "live trigger price", "kind": "text", "label": "Notes", "name": "notes", "required": false } ], "kickoff_local": "2026-06-21T20:00+01:00", "market": "Under 2.5", "match": "Belgium v Iran", "model_probability": "0.4733", "needed_input": "price", "needed_odds": "2.198", "news": { "checked_at": "2026-06-21T07:32:00.796985+00:00", "published_at": "2026-06-20T22:38:57Z | 2026-06-21T05:35:00Z | 2026-06-20T18:59:06Z", "source": "https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMivAFBVV95cUxQZ18tR2hhc2tEdE4tRnR0RkZyVTVYbWRmb25ZLVpGZVkzRUIxWjEzRnhPTWI0eU9uVmxGTmVXSVh3b2NTcm5ER29jczV0M0hKem1LTXNWNlFRU1ZvMFZVU0RNRVBZWlNYUWdRaVA3emotOW5yRk5xbzFKWExlR3lLX2xPUDlFZXFEZk5vODZueUVUMzlnSXpQQmZBajdPLTl3cXhqQ01EOFZpdE96V1pGWGtOb0Jya19uaGZsYw?oc=5 | https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMiiAFBVV95cUxNQXZETWdpTHcwMmlZYmNOajhTTW9qQXhEWU5RQ2ltWEZxWnU5S0F3V0tINWtxdTFwZlNNdVBaakNTcHNLbi1nOTZ6YnJEb1Zwank0SWJPdm9ibFF5WERBT0U4d3AtT1RNT3JsTWR3RENpVFB3c2NZLWlneDVBeXlubDQ0clJMajRs?oc=5 | https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMiuAFBVV95cUxNQ0piRjVpYTJHNWxsN21ucWRQajFnOGdlSnpwRTh2cGVJMmh2RnhPTGZmTnQ2ckxOazQ5Y0w3QTNPaGRCcUZHZUFydmRPQzVPOTRKRE1jTkt5eHNmcUl2Wlg0MjFNeDdONFFtclVhSWMwbWNqLTRTMDZ4YURxRHZfeWZtTXp2ZDczY3JhQXdaWWt3Njlac1J1U1E0c2lVaVNYVGU3ZmFBVGRXZjZMNFBrT3JxUGZPMll2?oc=5", "stake_gate_cleared": true, "status": "news_matched", "status_label": "news_matched", "summary": "injury: Belgium winger Doku ruled out of World Cup match against Iran due to illness - FlashScore UK | lineup: Belgium vs Iran – Predicted lineup and team news - Yahoo Sports | lineup: Belgium vs Iran Predicted Lineups & Team News - Betfred Insights" }, "price_move": "+0.078 (3.7%)", "role": "next_chronological_watch", "row_number": 1, "seen_odds": "2.12", "source": "The Odds API soccer_fifa_world_cup: Matchbook (API)", "stake_units": "0", "watch_window": "in 9h 28m; final 2026-06-21T19:40+01:00", "why": "No stake now; watch for 2.198+ model price trigger and complete price, then rerun. stress probability 47.3%; price 2.12; conservative EV 0.3%; break-even odds 2.113; bet odds 2.198 for 4% EV; recommendation no_bet_rechecked_price; fresh price check from The Odds API soccer_fifa_world_cup: Matchbook (API); news: injury: Belgium winger Doku ruled out of World Cup match against Iran due to illness - FlashScore UK | lineup: Belgium vs Iran – Predicted lineup and team news - Yahoo Sports | lineup: Belgium vs Iran Predicted Lineups &; decision: price below World Cup EV gate" }, "normal_stake_allowed": false, "odds": { "needed": "2.198", "price_move": "+0.078 (3.7%)", "seen": "2.12", "source": "The Odds API soccer_fifa_world_cup: Matchbook (API)" }, "odds_slate": { "active_price_rows": 10, "closest_trigger": { "market": "Under 2.5", "match": "Belgium v Iran", "needed_input": "price", "needed_odds": "2.198", "price_move": "+0.078 (3.7%)", "seen_odds": "2.12", "source": "The Odds API soccer_fifa_world_cup: Matchbook (API)" }, "operator_api_confirmed": 10, "other_price_rows": 0, "public_scout_only": 0, "source_counts": { "API": 10 }, "stakeability": "operator_or_api_prices_present", "trigger_rows": 6 }, "one_line": "No bet now. Next kickoff watch: Belgium v Iran Under 2.5; record only if a real bookmaker reaches 2.198+.", "operator_blocker": "42 deduped checked World Cup price rows; 42 active pre-match; 10 operator/API-confirmed active pre-match rows (source rows: 0 manual CSV rows; 0 price queue rows; 40 automatic price rows) from data/manual_price_checks.csv, results/manual_price_recheck_queue.csv, and results/world_cup_live_price_checks.csv", "primary_blocker": "Watch-only: 9 World Cup operator/API price rows were checked and still sit below the EV gate; closest confirmed price is Belgium v Iran Under 2.5 current 2.12 from The Odds API soccer_fifa_world_cup: Matchbook (API) (EV 0.3%; needs 2.198+ for the 4% EV gate; needed input: price).", "proof": { "actual_placed": 0, "actual_profit_units": 0, "actual_settled": 0, "normal_stake_actual_placed": 0, "normal_stake_actual_settled": 0, "proof_only_actual_placed": 0, "proof_only_actual_settled": 0, "proof_state": "PROVE_FIRST", "recommendation_profit_units": 0, "recommendation_settled": 0, "shadow_brier": 0.262498, "shadow_forced_profit_units": -1.72, "shadow_settled": 40, "unclassified_actual_placed": 0, "unclassified_actual_settled": 0 }, "proof_plan": {}, "proof_stake_allowed": false, "result_slate": { "latest_settled": { "action": "Settled 0-0; no staked bet; zero-stake audit only", "fixture": "Ecuador v Curaçao", "result": "0-0" }, "pending_fixtures": 5, "result_settlement_actions": 0, "settled_results": 1, "state": "part_settled", "total_fixtures": 6 }, "risk_warning": "The domestic strategy gate is not historically supported enough, but no domestic rows are in the current card.", "row_number": 1, "settlement_plan": {}, "setup": {}, "status": "BLOCKED", "thresholds": { "expected_value": "0.0034", "kickoff_local": "2026-06-21T20:00+01:00", "model_probability": "0.4733", "needed_odds": "2.198", "price_move": "+0.078 (3.7%)", "seen_odds": "2.12", "source": "The Odds API soccer_fifa_world_cup: Matchbook (API)", "stake_units": "0", "watch_rank": "1", "watch_window": "in 9h 28m; final 2026-06-21T19:40+01:00" }, "viability": { "actual_placed": 0, "actual_settled": 0, "default_ev_gate_bets": "6", "default_ev_gate_min_supported_bets": 200, "income_staking": "not_ready", "normal_stake_actual_placed": 0, "normal_stake_actual_settled": 0, "one_line": "Not ready for income staking: 0 actual placements; broad positive-EV backtest ROI -3.1%; 0 settled staked live recommendations; default 5% EV gate has 6 historical bets", "proof_only_actual_placed": 0, "proof_only_actual_settled": 0, "reasons": [ "0 actual placements", "broad positive-EV backtest ROI -3.1%", "0 settled staked live recommendations", "default 5% EV gate has 6 historical bets", "no supported 5% EV segment", "0 settled actual bookmaker placements" ], "recommendation_settled": 0, "shadow_forced_profit_units": -1.72, "shadow_settled": 40, "state": "PROVE_FIRST", "unclassified_actual_placed": 0, "unclassified_actual_settled": 0 }, "watch_required": true, "watchlist": [ { "command_template": { "instruction": "Replace LIVE_DECIMAL_ODDS=live bookmaker price; OPERATOR_BOOKMAKER=bookmaker/source checked before running template commands.", "mode": "template", "placeholders": [ { "field": "decimal_odds", "kind": "decimal_odds", "label": "Live decimal odds", "minimum": "2.198", "placeholder": "LIVE_DECIMAL_ODDS", "required": true }, { "field": "source", "kind": "operator_source", "label": "Bookmaker/operator", "placeholder": "OPERATOR_BOOKMAKER", "required": true } ], "requires_replacement": true }, "commands": { "preview_price": "python3 record_price_check.py --action-row 1 --decimal-odds LIVE_DECIMAL_ODDS --min-decimal-odds 2.198 --source \"OPERATOR_BOOKMAKER\" --notes \"live trigger price\" --dry-run", "record_price": "python3 record_price_check.py --action-row 1 --decimal-odds LIVE_DECIMAL_ODDS --min-decimal-odds 2.198 --source \"OPERATOR_BOOKMAKER\" --notes \"live trigger price\"", "record_price_and_refresh": "python3 record_price_check.py --action-row 1 --decimal-odds LIVE_DECIMAL_ODDS --min-decimal-odds 2.198 --source \"OPERATOR_BOOKMAKER\" --notes \"live trigger price\" --answer-mode --rerun-after-record", "rerun": "./run_daily_goal.sh 2026-06-21 2" }, "expected_value": "0.0034", "input_fields": [ { "kind": "decimal_odds", "label": "Live decimal odds", "minimum": "2.198", "name": "decimal_odds", "placeholder": "LIVE_DECIMAL_ODDS", "required": true }, { "kind": "operator_source", "label": "Bookmaker/operator", "name": "source", "placeholder": "OPERATOR_BOOKMAKER", "required": true }, { "default": "live trigger price", "kind": "text", "label": "Notes", "name": "notes", "required": false } ], "kickoff_local": "2026-06-21T20:00+01:00", "market": "Under 2.5", "match": "Belgium v Iran", "model_probability": "0.4733", "needed_input": "price", "needed_odds": "2.198", "news": { "checked_at": "2026-06-21T07:32:00.796985+00:00", "published_at": "2026-06-20T22:38:57Z | 2026-06-21T05:35:00Z | 2026-06-20T18:59:06Z", "source": "https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMivAFBVV95cUxQZ18tR2hhc2tEdE4tRnR0RkZyVTVYbWRmb25ZLVpGZVkzRUIxWjEzRnhPTWI0eU9uVmxGTmVXSVh3b2NTcm5ER29jczV0M0hKem1LTXNWNlFRU1ZvMFZVU0RNRVBZWlNYUWdRaVA3emotOW5yRk5xbzFKWExlR3lLX2xPUDlFZXFEZk5vODZueUVUMzlnSXpQQmZBajdPLTl3cXhqQ01EOFZpdE96V1pGWGtOb0Jya19uaGZsYw?oc=5 | https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMiiAFBVV95cUxNQXZETWdpTHcwMmlZYmNOajhTTW9qQXhEWU5RQ2ltWEZxWnU5S0F3V0tINWtxdTFwZlNNdVBaakNTcHNLbi1nOTZ6YnJEb1Zwank0SWJPdm9ibFF5WERBT0U4d3AtT1RNT3JsTWR3RENpVFB3c2NZLWlneDVBeXlubDQ0clJMajRs?oc=5 | https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMiuAFBVV95cUxNQ0piRjVpYTJHNWxsN21ucWRQajFnOGdlSnpwRTh2cGVJMmh2RnhPTGZmTnQ2ckxOazQ5Y0w3QTNPaGRCcUZHZUFydmRPQzVPOTRKRE1jTkt5eHNmcUl2Wlg0MjFNeDdONFFtclVhSWMwbWNqLTRTMDZ4YURxRHZfeWZtTXp2ZDczY3JhQXdaWWt3Njlac1J1U1E0c2lVaVNYVGU3ZmFBVGRXZjZMNFBrT3JxUGZPMll2?oc=5", "stake_gate_cleared": true, "status": "news_matched", "status_label": "news_matched", "summary": "injury: Belgium winger Doku ruled out of World Cup match against Iran due to illness - FlashScore UK | lineup: Belgium vs Iran – Predicted lineup and team news - Yahoo Sports | lineup: Belgium vs Iran Predicted Lineups & Team News - Betfred Insights" }, "price_move": "+0.078 (3.7%)", "role": "price_watch", "row_number": 1, "seen_odds": "2.12", "source": "The Odds API soccer_fifa_world_cup: Matchbook (API)", "stake_units": "0", "watch_window": "in 9h 28m; final 2026-06-21T19:40+01:00", "why": "No stake now; watch for 2.198+ model price trigger and complete price, then rerun. stress probability 47.3%; price 2.12; conservative EV 0.3%; break-even odds 2.113; bet odds 2.198 for 4% EV; recommendation no_bet_rechecked_price; fresh price check from The Odds API soccer_fifa_world_cup: Matchbook (API); news: injury: Belgium winger Doku ruled out of World Cup match against Iran due to illness - FlashScore UK | lineup: Belgium vs Iran – Predicted lineup and team news - Yahoo Sports | lineup: Belgium vs Iran Predicted Lineups &; decision: price below World Cup EV gate" }, { "command_template": { "instruction": "Replace LIVE_DECIMAL_ODDS=live bookmaker price; OPERATOR_BOOKMAKER=bookmaker/source checked before running template commands.", "mode": "template", "placeholders": [ { "field": "decimal_odds", "kind": "decimal_odds", "label": "Live decimal odds", "minimum": "2.456", "placeholder": "LIVE_DECIMAL_ODDS", "required": true }, { "field": "source", "kind": "operator_source", "label": "Bookmaker/operator", "placeholder": "OPERATOR_BOOKMAKER", "required": true } ], "requires_replacement": true }, "commands": { "preview_price": "python3 record_price_check.py --action-row 2 --decimal-odds LIVE_DECIMAL_ODDS --min-decimal-odds 2.456 --source \"OPERATOR_BOOKMAKER\" --notes \"live trigger price\" --dry-run", "record_price": "python3 record_price_check.py --action-row 2 --decimal-odds LIVE_DECIMAL_ODDS --min-decimal-odds 2.456 --source \"OPERATOR_BOOKMAKER\" --notes \"live trigger price\"", "record_price_and_refresh": "python3 record_price_check.py --action-row 2 --decimal-odds LIVE_DECIMAL_ODDS --min-decimal-odds 2.456 --source \"OPERATOR_BOOKMAKER\" --notes \"live trigger price\" --answer-mode --rerun-after-record", "rerun": "./run_daily_goal.sh 2026-06-21 2" }, "expected_value": "-0.2926", "input_fields": [ { "kind": "decimal_odds", "label": "Live decimal odds", "minimum": "2.456", "name": "decimal_odds", "placeholder": "LIVE_DECIMAL_ODDS", "required": true }, { "kind": "operator_source", "label": "Bookmaker/operator", "name": "source", "placeholder": "OPERATOR_BOOKMAKER", "required": true }, { "default": "live trigger price", "kind": "text", "label": "Notes", "name": "notes", "required": false } ], "kickoff_local": "2026-06-21T23:00+01:00", "market": "Under 2.5", "match": "Uruguay v Cape Verde", "model_probability": "0.4236", "needed_input": "price", "needed_odds": "2.456", "news": { "checked_at": "2026-06-21T07:32:00.796985+00:00", "published_at": "2026-06-20T22:00:00Z | 2026-06-20T22:00:14Z | 2026-06-20T12:23:11Z", "source": "https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMi2AFBVV95cUxPRE5TbXpEMTh0SjJnLTR1TFZ6WHFIUjBfLVpJdzktSEdKVEtzeWhnd19oU1NDVUp1Q21IamRxbmZxczd4a1FYTVI2UUY4WUNzMlV4c0FUR0JSdGZvTDJoZlowbHhYSUFidl81UEJEd0lycTNaaDZNT3FBQ3dkalBNNE5vaU1IQmp5Sm5rUHJrT2dha3E2YVRNVjBlT2FlN29PbWxIMTVMY1c0R2F1THgyRXYyYnR0S2l0a2dadkx5NWJOcTlsMmxES285ckNudS1CT2Zha2l2ZGY?oc=5 | https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMiwAFBVV95cUxPVWhqNVFlTHZ5czNoaEpjS2cxT2pfSWhYTUVzOTN1QWtPSWRYNkViRW9vODJlZXdWNUVvbjV6eFQ4VDFTbHUxZ2Rvc05CYU5xbFZtNjNBS2JBNFJhRWxHTDhiMUdvYTJPWjlKSTN6VERqaFhIOWNfSDF2bDFHSzJsell1WTVYdWIzT0oxV0dmaVJVREVtZS1JY045Wk1sZnZSRXZHUnpEb0Y5Ry1lU29qZmlkSEtXZWt1OHVVcDZ6SDU?oc=5 | https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMipwFBVV95cUxNQTcwMUJQTkpEMGZiR0lwRGJkWjN6XzFoOVFMeWlXSjBMNmdENWNMSFFKTVFJZFNoYUYxdHFGVFRKS3AxbHRObnEwTk4yRVhRUnF4amlCeG5qRUhWelhwYUMyT1pTTVJ4cjRIeFFOMDhfWV9wZGRLMFhoOHNObzlxX2luR1dMNXZHaU1USVJHSWdqOU1IbUNLT29nMjJQM1RTSndDWU5LVQ?oc=5", "stake_gate_cleared": true, "status": "news_matched", "status_label": "news_matched", "summary": "injury: Team News: Uruguay vs. Cape Verde injury, suspension list, predicted XIs | World Cup 2026 - Sports Mole | lineup: Uruguay vs Cape Verde Predicted Lineups & Team News - Betfred Insights | lineup: Cape Verde predicted lineup vs Uruguay for FIFA World Cup 2026 - Khel Now" }, "price_move": "+0.786 (47.1%)", "role": "price_watch", "row_number": 2, "seen_odds": "1.67", "source": "The Odds API soccer_fifa_world_cup: Unibet (SE) (API)", "stake_units": "0", "watch_window": "in 12h 28m; final 2026-06-21T22:40+01:00", "why": "No stake now; watch for 2.456+ model price trigger and complete price, then rerun. stress probability 42.4%; price 1.67; conservative EV -29.3%; break-even odds 2.361; bet odds 2.456 for 4% EV; recommendation no_bet_rechecked_price; fresh price check from The Odds API soccer_fifa_world_cup: Unibet (SE) (API); news: injury: Team News: Uruguay vs. Cape Verde injury, suspension list, predicted XIs | World Cup 2026 - Sports Mole | lineup: Uruguay vs Cape Verde Predicted Lineups & Team News - Betfred Insights | lineup: Cape Verde predic; decision: price below World Cup EV gate" }, { "command_template": { "instruction": "Replace LIVE_DECIMAL_ODDS=live bookmaker price; OPERATOR_BOOKMAKER=bookmaker/source checked before running template commands.", "mode": "template", "placeholders": [ { "field": "decimal_odds", "kind": "decimal_odds", "label": "Live decimal odds", "minimum": "2.076", "placeholder": "LIVE_DECIMAL_ODDS", "required": true }, { "field": "source", "kind": "operator_source", "label": "Bookmaker/operator", "placeholder": "OPERATOR_BOOKMAKER", "required": true } ], "requires_replacement": true }, "commands": { "preview_price": "python3 record_price_check.py --action-row 3 --decimal-odds LIVE_DECIMAL_ODDS --min-decimal-odds 2.076 --source \"OPERATOR_BOOKMAKER\" --notes \"live trigger price\" --dry-run", "record_price": "python3 record_price_check.py --action-row 3 --decimal-odds LIVE_DECIMAL_ODDS --min-decimal-odds 2.076 --source \"OPERATOR_BOOKMAKER\" --notes \"live trigger price\"", "record_price_and_refresh": "python3 record_price_check.py --action-row 3 --decimal-odds LIVE_DECIMAL_ODDS --min-decimal-odds 2.076 --source \"OPERATOR_BOOKMAKER\" --notes \"live trigger price\" --answer-mode --rerun-after-record", "rerun": "./run_daily_goal.sh 2026-06-21 2" }, "expected_value": "-0.0978", "input_fields": [ { "kind": "decimal_odds", "label": "Live decimal odds", "minimum": "2.076", "name": "decimal_odds", "placeholder": "LIVE_DECIMAL_ODDS", "required": true }, { "kind": "operator_source", "label": "Bookmaker/operator", "name": "source", "placeholder": "OPERATOR_BOOKMAKER", "required": true }, { "default": "live trigger price", "kind": "text", "label": "Notes", "name": "notes", "required": false } ], "kickoff_local": "2026-06-22T02:00+01:00", "market": "Under 2.5", "match": "New Zealand v Egypt", "model_probability": "0.5012", "needed_input": "price", "needed_odds": "2.076", "news": { "checked_at": "2026-06-21T07:32:00.796985+00:00", "published_at": "2026-06-21T05:35:00Z | 2026-06-21T01:00:40Z | 2026-06-20T11:00:04Z", "source": "https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMihwFBVV95cUxQUDNDcjJ4NndGZFNCTHlERER0UWN0ZXJEMVZUYnRxTUxOd1BmeEtNbGNzWTE5Z1hMWElaWUhBVmV5Rm9jTDVCTDU5c2JoSjVPNE1USW9DTUpzU2o5UEV4SXdGXzFYMzBkTlpaNkNtZEYzZnhqQU5rY2lPWFdEUHRGUnZxdWFFWHc?oc=5 | https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMivwFBVV95cUxPX1FrWFVEeEt0bU5veWpSVFB4S3BUaWJ4WkVEeGVNTHBPT1B5NXVlakhRYVl1UnF1c3ZaNjFPRlNuNHI3T041N0pMaEZZVFk4S01WbzJ2WjV6SzBxZXVPWGoxWVVtSjVMUWtkNGNEbDQ1YnpkZDhsUHd2elI3dGtQOHVFWXhvazl2ajNSWDZpU3RsSjNGbU43WmxRa1R3dnUtbG84WlpzWFZTUE5qcnlDQmRRMy1VazRGNDI4bUl0QQ?oc=5 | https://www.theguardian.com/football/2026/jun/20/david-raya-when-you-lose-a-champions-league-final-it-destroys-you-inside", "stake_gate_cleared": true, "status": "news_matched", "status_label": "news_matched", "summary": "lineup: Egypt predicted lineup and team news vs New Zealand - Yahoo Sports Canada | lineup: New Zealand vs Egypt Predicted Lineups & Team News - Betfred Insights | availability: David Raya: ‘When you lose a Champions League final it destroys you inside’ - The goalkeeper discusses being bullied by 35-year-olds in the English fifth tier, winning the Premier League and competition in the Spain..." }, "price_move": "+0.276 (15.3%)", "role": "price_watch", "row_number": 3, "seen_odds": "1.80", "source": "The Odds API soccer_fifa_world_cup: Unibet (SE) (API)", "stake_units": "0", "watch_window": "in 15h 28m; final 2026-06-22T01:40+01:00", "why": "No stake now; watch for 2.076+ model price trigger and complete price, then rerun. stress probability 50.1%; price 1.80; conservative EV -9.8%; break-even odds 1.995; bet odds 2.076 for 4% EV; recommendation no_bet_rechecked_price; fresh price check from The Odds API soccer_fifa_world_cup: Unibet (SE) (API); news: lineup: Egypt predicted lineup and team news vs New Zealand - Yahoo Sports Canada | lineup: New Zealand vs Egypt Predicted Lineups & Team News - Betfred Insights | availability: David Raya: ‘When you lose a Champions Lea; decision: price below World Cup EV gate" }, { "command_template": { "instruction": "Replace LIVE_DECIMAL_ODDS=live bookmaker price; OPERATOR_BOOKMAKER=bookmaker/source checked before running template commands.", "mode": "template", "placeholders": [ { "field": "decimal_odds", "kind": "decimal_odds", "label": "Live decimal odds", "minimum": "2.513", "placeholder": "LIVE_DECIMAL_ODDS", "required": true }, { "field": "source", "kind": "operator_source", "label": "Bookmaker/operator", "placeholder": "OPERATOR_BOOKMAKER", "required": true } ], "requires_replacement": true }, "commands": { "preview_price": "python3 record_price_check.py --action-row 4 --decimal-odds LIVE_DECIMAL_ODDS --min-decimal-odds 2.513 --source \"OPERATOR_BOOKMAKER\" --notes \"live trigger price\" --dry-run", "record_price": "python3 record_price_check.py --action-row 4 --decimal-odds LIVE_DECIMAL_ODDS --min-decimal-odds 2.513 --source \"OPERATOR_BOOKMAKER\" --notes \"live trigger price\"", "record_price_and_refresh": "python3 record_price_check.py --action-row 4 --decimal-odds LIVE_DECIMAL_ODDS --min-decimal-odds 2.513 --source \"OPERATOR_BOOKMAKER\" --notes \"live trigger price\" --answer-mode --rerun-after-record", "rerun": "./run_daily_goal.sh 2026-06-21 2" }, "expected_value": "-0.1184", "input_fields": [ { "kind": "decimal_odds", "label": "Live decimal odds", "minimum": "2.513", "name": "decimal_odds", "placeholder": "LIVE_DECIMAL_ODDS", "required": true }, { "kind": "operator_source", "label": "Bookmaker/operator", "name": "source", "placeholder": "OPERATOR_BOOKMAKER", "required": true }, { "default": "live trigger price", "kind": "text", "label": "Notes", "name": "notes", "required": false } ], "kickoff_local": "2026-06-22T02:00+01:00", "market": "Over 2.5", "match": "New Zealand v Egypt", "model_probability": "0.4139", "needed_input": "price", "needed_odds": "2.513", "news": { "checked_at": "2026-06-21T07:32:00.796985+00:00", "published_at": "2026-06-21T05:35:00Z | 2026-06-21T01:00:40Z | 2026-06-20T11:00:04Z", "source": "https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMihwFBVV95cUxQUDNDcjJ4NndGZFNCTHlERER0UWN0ZXJEMVZUYnRxTUxOd1BmeEtNbGNzWTE5Z1hMWElaWUhBVmV5Rm9jTDVCTDU5c2JoSjVPNE1USW9DTUpzU2o5UEV4SXdGXzFYMzBkTlpaNkNtZEYzZnhqQU5rY2lPWFdEUHRGUnZxdWFFWHc?oc=5 | https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMivwFBVV95cUxPX1FrWFVEeEt0bU5veWpSVFB4S3BUaWJ4WkVEeGVNTHBPT1B5NXVlakhRYVl1UnF1c3ZaNjFPRlNuNHI3T041N0pMaEZZVFk4S01WbzJ2WjV6SzBxZXVPWGoxWVVtSjVMUWtkNGNEbDQ1YnpkZDhsUHd2elI3dGtQOHVFWXhvazl2ajNSWDZpU3RsSjNGbU43WmxRa1R3dnUtbG84WlpzWFZTUE5qcnlDQmRRMy1VazRGNDI4bUl0QQ?oc=5 | https://www.theguardian.com/football/2026/jun/20/david-raya-when-you-lose-a-champions-league-final-it-destroys-you-inside", "stake_gate_cleared": true, "status": "news_matched", "status_label": "news_matched", "summary": "lineup: Egypt predicted lineup and team news vs New Zealand - Yahoo Sports Canada | lineup: New Zealand vs Egypt Predicted Lineups & Team News - Betfred Insights | availability: David Raya: ‘When you lose a Champions League final it destroys you inside’ - The goalkeeper discusses being bullied by 35-year-olds in the English fifth tier, winning the Premier League and competition in the Spain..." }, "price_move": "+0.383 (18.0%)", "role": "price_watch", "row_number": 4, "seen_odds": "2.13", "source": "The Odds API soccer_fifa_world_cup: GTbets (API)", "stake_units": "0", "watch_window": "in 15h 28m; final 2026-06-22T01:40+01:00", "why": "No stake now; watch for 2.513+ model price trigger and complete price, then rerun. stress probability 41.4%; price 2.13; conservative EV -11.8%; break-even odds 2.416; bet odds 2.513 for 4% EV; recommendation no_bet_rechecked_price; fresh price check from The Odds API soccer_fifa_world_cup: GTbets (API); news: lineup: Egypt predicted lineup and team news vs New Zealand - Yahoo Sports Canada | lineup: New Zealand vs Egypt Predicted Lineups & Team News - Betfred Insights | availability: David Raya: ‘When you lose a Champions Lea; decision: price below World Cup EV gate" }, { "command_template": { "instruction": "Replace LIVE_DECIMAL_ODDS=live bookmaker price; OPERATOR_BOOKMAKER=bookmaker/source checked before running template commands.", "mode": "template", "placeholders": [ { "field": "decimal_odds", "kind": "decimal_odds", "label": "Live decimal odds", "minimum": "2.347", "placeholder": "LIVE_DECIMAL_ODDS", "required": true }, { "field": "source", "kind": "operator_source", "label": "Bookmaker/operator", "placeholder": "OPERATOR_BOOKMAKER", "required": true } ], "requires_replacement": true }, "commands": { "preview_price": "python3 record_price_check.py --action-row 5 --decimal-odds LIVE_DECIMAL_ODDS --min-decimal-odds 2.347 --source \"OPERATOR_BOOKMAKER\" --notes \"live trigger price\" --dry-run", "record_price": "python3 record_price_check.py --action-row 5 --decimal-odds LIVE_DECIMAL_ODDS --min-decimal-odds 2.347 --source \"OPERATOR_BOOKMAKER\" --notes \"live trigger price\"", "record_price_and_refresh": "python3 record_price_check.py --action-row 5 --decimal-odds LIVE_DECIMAL_ODDS --min-decimal-odds 2.347 --source \"OPERATOR_BOOKMAKER\" --notes \"live trigger price\" --answer-mode --rerun-after-record", "rerun": "./run_daily_goal.sh 2026-06-21 2" }, "expected_value": "-0.1045", "input_fields": [ { "kind": "decimal_odds", "label": "Live decimal odds", "minimum": "2.347", "name": "decimal_odds", "placeholder": "LIVE_DECIMAL_ODDS", "required": true }, { "kind": "operator_source", "label": "Bookmaker/operator", "name": "source", "placeholder": "OPERATOR_BOOKMAKER", "required": true }, { "default": "live trigger price", "kind": "text", "label": "Notes", "name": "notes", "required": false } ], "kickoff_local": "2026-06-22T18:00+01:00", "market": "Over 2.5", "match": "Argentina v Austria", "model_probability": "0.4433", "needed_input": "price", "needed_odds": "2.347", "news": { "checked_at": "2026-06-21T07:32:00.796985+00:00", "published_at": "2026-06-20T09:10:16Z | 2026-06-21T06:29:02Z | 2026-06-20T18:50:00Z", "source": "https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMiX0FVX3lxTE96cjhJQ0FQbS1WVjRMcXVlNDNiZGxFa0hNS1VWQ3hSME1SUzZfN3VDU0dySWdkWlB2OFJkcHpXcjhFbzhrSjhiRlNMc1hNUnlUbHRBYkctLXdJQ1gzM1dr?oc=5 | https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMiqAFBVV95cUxQLUNCMXVhWlg3cG1KTW9ldGNjS0pFYmtLei1ZLUxpcThWeFlQeWRUWjExUjlqcUdkSEsySDZ3TGVrTGFqM0J0bXhuT2tDYVkxTWdMUEg4NWo1UlMwX3ljdlNxYU4xU0dhUjYxd3otSU1nemtrS2dseDBHVXhyX2R6OEZGQVp4WWcwNV9uaXpYVTFQLWwya1h6WF9IRnRDZmhKSi1WWllwc2c?oc=5 | https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMi7AFBVV95cUxQUEhYOG5TcVZNekNENnkxS3YyQTVfVWJSeF8wS0xjU1hWRDV6a0lYeTlmcU5KbEVadDAxajd0anB5SE5NYjNKMUpUZ1BaOFdiemxKbWdiRlg5dU0wODFlSUE4TVNPZmdneENjbS11RXhhLWJKODRCQlBjX2xYYnAwQ0hnV1p3NWp3eWxEcjFWNzRlWHJMbGNNWVVqNXdKdUlrZk0yN1kzVUl5aU1CaEc3bldmUVZfN05jSDBMTXgzY2gzOWpBbVlCcC02VjRQWWpMWDVmR2Vtd2s0RFEtekRxMzVZUVoyRjhGb3ctRA?oc=5", "stake_gate_cleared": true, "status": "news_matched", "status_label": "news_matched", "summary": "injury: Argentina Dealt Severe Injury Blow Ahead of Crucial Austria Clash - The Daily Campus | lineup: Argentina hint at multiple changes to starting XI against Austria - daily-sun.com | lineup: Argentina vs Austria at World Cup 2026: TV channel, how to watch, kick-off time, live stream, referee, predicted line-ups - ESPN" }, "price_move": "+0.327 (16.2%)", "role": "price_watch", "row_number": 5, "seen_odds": "2.02", "source": "The Odds API soccer_fifa_world_cup: Matchbook (API)", "stake_units": "0", "watch_window": "in 1d 7h; final 2026-06-22T17:40+01:00", "why": "No stake now; watch for 2.347+ model price trigger and complete price, then rerun. stress probability 44.3%; price 2.02; conservative EV -10.4%; break-even odds 2.256; bet odds 2.347 for 4% EV; recommendation no_bet_rechecked_price; fresh price check from The Odds API soccer_fifa_world_cup: Matchbook (API); news: injury: Argentina Dealt Severe Injury Blow Ahead of Crucial Austria Clash - The Daily Campus | lineup: Argentina hint at multiple changes to starting XI against Austria - daily-sun.com | lineup: Argentina vs Austria at W; decision: price below World Cup EV gate" }, { "command_template": { "instruction": "Replace LIVE_DECIMAL_ODDS=live bookmaker price; OPERATOR_BOOKMAKER=bookmaker/source checked before running template commands.", "mode": "template", "placeholders": [ { "field": "decimal_odds", "kind": "decimal_odds", "label": "Live decimal odds", "minimum": "3.469", "placeholder": "LIVE_DECIMAL_ODDS", "required": true }, { "field": "source", "kind": "operator_source", "label": "Bookmaker/operator", "placeholder": "OPERATOR_BOOKMAKER", "required": true } ], "requires_replacement": true }, "commands": { "preview_price": "python3 record_price_check.py --action-row 6 --decimal-odds LIVE_DECIMAL_ODDS --min-decimal-odds 3.469 --source \"OPERATOR_BOOKMAKER\" --notes \"live trigger price\" --dry-run", "record_price": "python3 record_price_check.py --action-row 6 --decimal-odds LIVE_DECIMAL_ODDS --min-decimal-odds 3.469 --source \"OPERATOR_BOOKMAKER\" --notes \"live trigger price\"", "record_price_and_refresh": "python3 record_price_check.py --action-row 6 --decimal-odds LIVE_DECIMAL_ODDS --min-decimal-odds 3.469 --source \"OPERATOR_BOOKMAKER\" --notes \"live trigger price\" --answer-mode --rerun-after-record", "rerun": "./run_daily_goal.sh 2026-06-21 2" }, "expected_value": "-0.0107", "input_fields": [ { "kind": "decimal_odds", "label": "Live decimal odds", "minimum": "3.469", "name": "decimal_odds", "placeholder": "LIVE_DECIMAL_ODDS", "required": true }, { "kind": "operator_source", "label": "Bookmaker/operator", "name": "source", "placeholder": "OPERATOR_BOOKMAKER", "required": true }, { "default": "live trigger price", "kind": "text", "label": "Notes", "name": "notes", "required": false } ], "kickoff_local": "2026-06-22T22:00+01:00", "market": "Under 2.5", "match": "France v Iraq", "model_probability": "0.2998", "needed_input": "price", "needed_odds": "3.469", "news": { "checked_at": "2026-06-21T07:32:00.796985+00:00", "published_at": "2026-06-20T13:20:58Z | 2026-06-20T10:14:38Z | 2026-06-20T08:18:47Z", "source": "https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMivgJBVV95cUxPQ1d5UW9aN2phbUhFdk1LR1ViQXlVbkkxajFub1o3d1FXS3ZRa3E0WGFlNXZ5aGRiZElHSmJYNkpFYmhNZTFWRmR1YlZ2dzZqd214SVQ4OUVYcjFkZ2tPclN5UVFwSndtTGhuOHpMaS1UYXQ4ZFhFeVJ1bnlycVRjSGJUOHlFZ1M2UlpDbnJYV3RqNEtJTGtmQk9sbEVFaXVOYWc5aXB6U2tlcGZPMm1lLTBKRG5rM1VPR3hXLXBkaHh0RHdiZWpiTThnVWtxek9JcGE4TzUtSmhqXzc3ZXZraFBZZ3hvdDEtVms5WnNBU3pNODNYbXYzMjE4dlJTa0tfRzVFNkZoWkZMbExuRGljVHZTYVh3WTBBOEZRdm9SZVZ4RHludExjZWlpMThpSm5KVUVxd0Y0YzlHNkxReGc?oc=5 | https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMi2AJBVV95cUxQazMzVUVXOWpIM1huZmYtXzRLMlVBOU9aLVFpREhGQUlIeVIyWDdGdDlnYmZILTdsOHo4QktuNGgtUFNRNW5UMkk3Zkpnc0w2Unp6eURWOWh6QmFhRzJkVmNydmFxS0pyOEotUmpmamdoSjl1d0g3V0hfcmlXYnRZVkZ2VUE2bklGSHFreFdDUmlKTzRSUmtUek9ydkk2Nkd4Nk9VbFpjM1Q3VmNVZHM2Z0d2MlJDSUdHZjE0ZF9FaklkRlNYcXN3dWtBVVF4WHBnX0VfRHN1RDd2WVJ1d21aZlR0OTc4cjFNaGQtRG1tR2xQUTA3TWdSM2VnMVdRMkx2UXlCamtkVmQzQjZHSzBVWXhNY3NFcTktLUJiOU54R1F4TXN2ZjdYQnVaMU0tQTl3eDVqVGhvZkhjbXg3alRjNEE1Y0kyTnRlUUVyQzVNYWJHNWhTZ2ZtYw?oc=5 | https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMiwgFBVV95cUxOakJ1dzBtV3dTNi1qdkRwVGRndHNvNjdqSzYxNTR0RFo3VDB4ejVXTHVNejRqTlRBb2hyaVRlODBXb3BENU85TV9XMnROY2JvTzJaR3hubUFMSXp6RFdsbVRucElNdkh0a0NDd2FQZlFvYkU1UkF0N0xMMTdSZV96bjBKdi1GRFZCMkxVSURMdWlZb1dHNV9kZkt4UWFqWk82SE9PS1l4VDhFZ2trVzZjeHh3NUR5bEMyWFlpYXlJT2g4dw?oc=5", "stake_gate_cleared": true, "status": "news_matched", "status_label": "news_matched", "summary": "lineup: France vs Iraq: Three changes expected in France’s lineup - MSN | lineup: France vs Iraq – The French lineup announced with changes including Barcola - MSN | lineup: France vs Iraq – The French lineup announced with changes including Barcola - MSN" }, "price_move": "+0.169 (5.1%)", "role": "price_watch", "row_number": 6, "seen_odds": "3.30", "source": "The Odds API soccer_fifa_world_cup: Betsson (API)", "stake_units": "0", "watch_window": "in 1d 11h; final 2026-06-22T21:40+01:00", "why": "No stake now; watch for 3.469+ model price trigger and complete price, then rerun. stress probability 30.0%; price 3.30; conservative EV -1.1%; break-even odds 3.336; bet odds 3.469 for 4% EV; recommendation no_bet_rechecked_price; fresh price check from The Odds API soccer_fifa_world_cup: Betsson (API); news: lineup: France vs Iraq: Three changes expected in France’s lineup - MSN | lineup: France vs Iraq – The French lineup announced with changes including Barcola - MSN | lineup: France vs Iraq – The French lineup announced w; decision: price below World Cup EV gate" } ], "why": "No stake now; watch for 2.198+ model price trigger and complete price, then rerun. stress probability 47.3%; price 2.12; conservative EV 0.3%; break-even odds 2.113; bet odds 2.198 for 4% EV; recommendation no_bet_rechecked_price; fresh price check from The Odds API soccer_fifa_world_cup: Matchbook (API); news: injury: Belgium winger Doku ruled out of World Cup match against Iran due to illness - FlashScore UK | lineup: Belgium vs Iran – Predicted lineup and team news - Yahoo Sports | lineup: Belgium vs Iran Predicted Lineups &; decision: price below World Cup EV gate" }, "performance": { "actual_bets": { "input_issues": 0, "normal_stake_placed": 0, "normal_stake_profit_units": 0, "normal_stake_roi": 0.0, "normal_stake_settled": 0, "normal_stake_settled_stake_units": 0, "open": 0, "open_slips": [], "open_stake_units": 0, "placed": 0, "profit_units": 0, "proof_only_placed": 0, "proof_only_profit_units": 0, "proof_only_roi": 0.0, "proof_only_settled": 0, "proof_only_settled_stake_units": 0, "raw_rows": 0, "roi": 0.0, "settled": 0, "settled_slips": [], "settled_stake_units": 0, "source": "data/actual_bets.csv", "unclassified_placed": 0, "unclassified_profit_units": 0, "unclassified_roi": 0.0, "unclassified_settled": 0, "unclassified_settled_stake_units": 0, "usable_rows": 0, "wins": 0 }, "doctor_evidence": { "Actual betting ledger": { "detail": "0 placed in data/actual_bets.csv; 0 normal-stake; 0 proof-only; 0 unclassified; 0 open (0.00u); 0 settled; actual P/L 0.00u from 0.00u; 0 input issue(s)", "status": "WARN" }, "Historical strategy support": { "detail": "Historical strategy gate needs proof: sample too small (6 bets; need 200) at EV >= 5.0% (observed ROI 64.8%)", "status": "WARN" }, "Settled live evidence": { "detail": "2 open listed recommendation(s) (0 current candidate(s), 2 now downgraded/missing from current gates), 0 settled; open listed/audit stake 0.027u, not actual bookmaker exposure; settled profit 0.00u; settled ROI 0.0%; shadow zero-stake settled 40, forced-side P/L -1.72u from 40.00u; shadow probability expected 17.10 winner(s), actual 19, Brier 0.262", "status": "WARN" } }, "recommendation_ledger": { "open": 2, "open_current_candidate_stake_units": 0.0, "open_current_candidates": 0, "open_downgraded": 0, "open_missing_current": 2, "open_not_current": 2, "open_not_current_stake_units": 0.027, "open_stake_units": 0.027, "profit_units": 0, "roi": 0.0, "settled": 0, "settled_stake_units": 0, "shadow": { "actual_rate": 0.475, "actual_wins": 19.0, "average_probability": 0.427395, "brier": 0.262498, "calibration_gap": 0.047605, "expected_wins": 17.096, "forced_profit_units": -1.72, "forced_roi": -0.043, "forced_stake_units": 40.0, "priced": 40, "probability_count": 40, "settled": 40, "wins": 19 }, "staked": 2, "wins": 0 }, "strategy": { "broad_positive_ev": { "avg_expected_value": "0.011062885904397132", "bets": "1735", "min_ev": "0.0", "profit_units": "-54.23000000000003", "roi": "-0.03125648414985593" }, "default_ev_gate": { "avg_expected_value": "0.05376257809132098", "bets": "6", "min_ev": "0.05", "min_supported_bets": 200, "profit_units": "3.8900000000000006", "roi": "0.6483333333333334", "supported_sample": false }, "proof_reasons": [ "0 settled staked live recommendations", "broad positive-EV backtest ROI -3.1%", "default 5% EV gate has 6 historical bets", "no supported 5% EV segment", "0 settled actual bookmaker placements" ], "proof_state": "PROVE_FIRST", "supported_default_segments": 0 } }, "proof": { "actual_placed": 0, "actual_profit_units": 0, "actual_settled": 0, "normal_stake_actual_placed": 0, "normal_stake_actual_settled": 0, "proof_only_actual_placed": 0, "proof_only_actual_settled": 0, "proof_state": "PROVE_FIRST", "recommendation_profit_units": 0, "recommendation_settled": 0, "shadow_brier": 0.262498, "shadow_forced_profit_units": -1.72, "shadow_settled": 40, "unclassified_actual_placed": 0, "unclassified_actual_settled": 0 }, "proof_stake_allowed": false, "readiness": { "actual_slips": "0 placed in `data/actual_bets.csv`; 0 normal-stake; 0 proof-only; 0 unclassified; 0 open (0.00u); 0 settled; actual P/L 0.00u; 0 input issues", "api_key": "set", "api_key_env": "THE_ODDS_API_KEY", "api_key_file_status": { "blank_files": [], "files": [ ".env.local" ], "key": "THE_ODDS_API_KEY", "key_files": [ ".env.local" ], "state": "key_present_in_file" }, "doctor_checks": { "Actual bet input quality": { "detail": "0 invalid actual bookmaker placement row(s)", "status": "PASS" }, "Actual betting ledger": { "detail": "0 placed in data/actual_bets.csv; 0 normal-stake; 0 proof-only; 0 unclassified; 0 open (0.00u); 0 settled; actual P/L 0.00u from 0.00u; 0 input issue(s)", "status": "WARN" }, "Briefing artifact age": { "detail": "0.0 hours old", "status": "PASS" }, "Daily card artifact age": { "detail": "0.0 hours old", "status": "PASS" }, "Domestic card rows": { "detail": "0 rows in window; statuses: none", "status": "WARN" }, "Domestic odds API key": { "detail": "`THE_ODDS_API_KEY` is set", "status": "PASS" }, "Domestic result settlement": { "detail": "0 unsettled staked domestic row(s) dated before 2026-06-21 (Europe/Dublin)", "status": "PASS" }, "Historical strategy support": { "detail": "Historical strategy gate needs proof: sample too small (6 bets; need 200) at EV >= 5.0% (observed ROI 64.8%)", "status": "WARN" }, "Settled live evidence": { "detail": "2 open listed recommendation(s) (0 current candidate(s), 2 now downgraded/missing from current gates), 0 settled; open listed/audit stake 0.027u, not actual bookmaker exposure; settled profit 0.00u; settled ROI 0.0%; shadow zero-stake settled 40, forced-side P/L -1.72u from 40.00u; shadow probability expected 17.10 winner(s), actual 19, Brier 0.262", "status": "WARN" }, "World Cup daily card rows": { "detail": "12 artifact rows in results/world_cup_daily_card.csv; current statuses: no_bet_integer_stake_floor: 1, no_bet_rechecked_price: 9, settled_result_supplied: 2", "status": "PASS" }, "World Cup fixture rows": { "detail": "7 fixtures in window", "status": "PASS" }, "World Cup history rows": { "detail": "165 tracked rows in results/world_cup_bet_history.csv", "status": "PASS" }, "World Cup manual price input quality": { "detail": "0 unusable or expired attempted manual price row(s)", "status": "PASS" }, "World Cup market freshness": { "detail": "0 active stale-price check(s); 0 started row(s) closed; 47 total market checks", "status": "PASS" }, "World Cup news context": { "detail": "7/7 current fixture rows; 7 RSS matched headline(s); 0 manual team-news check(s); 7 gate-clearing row(s); artifact 0.0 hours old", "status": "PASS" }, "World Cup news gate": { "detail": "1/1 active decision row(s) have gate-clearing news; 0 fixture(s) need manual team-news check", "status": "PASS" }, "World Cup news intake queue": { "detail": "No pre-match fixture needs manual news intake", "status": "PASS" }, "World Cup price evidence": { "detail": "42 deduped checked World Cup price rows; 42 active pre-match; 10 operator/API-confirmed active pre-match rows (source rows: 0 manual CSV rows; 0 price queue rows; 40 automatic price rows) from data/manual_price_checks.csv, results/manual_price_recheck_queue.csv, and results/world_cup_live_price_checks.csv", "status": "PASS" }, "World Cup price-move triggers": { "detail": "6 operator/API no-bet trigger rows; closest Belgium v Iran Under 2.5 at 2.12 needs 2.198+; needed input: price; all shown trigger rows have gate-clearing news", "status": "PASS" }, "World Cup refresh age": { "detail": "0.0 hours since fetch", "status": "PASS" }, "World Cup result input quality": { "detail": "0 unusable result row(s) in data/world_cup_results.csv", "status": "PASS" }, "World Cup result rows": { "detail": "36 valid result row(s), 36 raw row(s) in data/world_cup_results.csv; 0 fixture/history item(s) due for settlement", "status": "PASS" } }, "fixture_summary": "7 fixtures in the sheet (4 today, 3 tomorrow); 0 domestic rows; 7 World Cup fixtures", "proof_state": "PROVE_FIRST - 0 settled staked live recommendations; broad positive-EV backtest ROI -3.1%; default 5% EV gate has 6 historical bets; no supported 5% EV segment", "world_cup_price_evidence": "`data/manual_price_checks.csv`, `results/manual_price_recheck_queue.csv`, and `results/world_cup_live_price_checks.csv` (42 deduped checked price rows; 42 active pre-match; 10 operator/API-confirmed active pre-match rows; source rows: 0 manual CSV rows; 0 price queue rows; 10 automatic price rows)" }, "risk_warnings": [ "The domestic strategy gate is not historically supported enough, but no domestic rows are in the current card.", "No settled staked live recommendations yet, so real-money performance is unproven; shadow zero-stake audit has 40 settled zero-stake model row(s).", "No actual bookmaker placements are recorded in `data/actual_bets.csv`; actual P/L is unproven even when model/shadow rows settle." ], "snapshot_warnings": [], "stake_summary": "0; do not stake until blockers are fixed", "status": "BLOCKED", "viability": { "actual_placed": 0, "actual_settled": 0, "default_ev_gate_bets": "6", "default_ev_gate_min_supported_bets": 200, "income_staking": "not_ready", "normal_stake_actual_placed": 0, "normal_stake_actual_settled": 0, "one_line": "Not ready for income staking: 0 actual placements; broad positive-EV backtest ROI -3.1%; 0 settled staked live recommendations; default 5% EV gate has 6 historical bets", "proof_only_actual_placed": 0, "proof_only_actual_settled": 0, "reasons": [ "0 actual placements", "broad positive-EV backtest ROI -3.1%", "0 settled staked live recommendations", "default 5% EV gate has 6 historical bets", "no supported 5% EV segment", "0 settled actual bookmaker placements" ], "recommendation_settled": 0, "shadow_forced_profit_units": -1.72, "shadow_settled": 40, "state": "PROVE_FIRST", "unclassified_actual_placed": 0, "unclassified_actual_settled": 0 }, "watch_required": true, "watch_rows": [ { "action_type": "watch_price", "command": "python3 record_price_check.py --action-row 1 --decimal-odds LIVE_DECIMAL_ODDS --min-decimal-odds 2.198 --source \"OPERATOR_BOOKMAKER\" --notes \"live trigger price\"", "command_template": { "instruction": "Replace LIVE_DECIMAL_ODDS=live bookmaker price; OPERATOR_BOOKMAKER=bookmaker/source checked before running template commands.", "mode": "template", "placeholders": [ { "field": "decimal_odds", "kind": "decimal_odds", "label": "Live decimal odds", "minimum": "2.198", "placeholder": "LIVE_DECIMAL_ODDS", "required": true }, { "field": "source", "kind": "operator_source", "label": "Bookmaker/operator", "placeholder": "OPERATOR_BOOKMAKER", "required": true } ], "requires_replacement": true }, "commands": { "preview_price": "python3 record_price_check.py --action-row 1 --decimal-odds LIVE_DECIMAL_ODDS --min-decimal-odds 2.198 --source \"OPERATOR_BOOKMAKER\" --notes \"live trigger price\" --dry-run", "record_price": "python3 record_price_check.py --action-row 1 --decimal-odds LIVE_DECIMAL_ODDS --min-decimal-odds 2.198 --source \"OPERATOR_BOOKMAKER\" --notes \"live trigger price\"", "record_price_and_refresh": "python3 record_price_check.py --action-row 1 --decimal-odds LIVE_DECIMAL_ODDS --min-decimal-odds 2.198 --source \"OPERATOR_BOOKMAKER\" --notes \"live trigger price\" --answer-mode --rerun-after-record", "rerun": "./run_daily_goal.sh 2026-06-21 2" }, "date_utc": "2026-06-21T19:00:00Z", "expected_value": "0.0034", "input_fields": [ { "kind": "decimal_odds", "label": "Live decimal odds", "minimum": "2.198", "name": "decimal_odds", "placeholder": "LIVE_DECIMAL_ODDS", "required": true }, { "kind": "operator_source", "label": "Bookmaker/operator", "name": "source", "placeholder": "OPERATOR_BOOKMAKER", "required": true }, { "default": "live trigger price", "kind": "text", "label": "Notes", "name": "notes", "required": false } ], "kickoff_local": "2026-06-21T20:00+01:00", "market": "Under 2.5", "match": "Belgium v Iran", "model_probability": "0.4733", "needed_input": "price", "needed_odds": "2.198", "news_command": "", "preview_command": "python3 record_price_check.py --action-row 1 --decimal-odds LIVE_DECIMAL_ODDS --min-decimal-odds 2.198 --source \"OPERATOR_BOOKMAKER\" --notes \"live trigger price\" --dry-run", "price_move": "+0.078 (3.7%)", "priority": "2", "recommendation": "WATCH_ONLY", "refresh_command": "python3 record_price_check.py --action-row 1 --decimal-odds LIVE_DECIMAL_ODDS --min-decimal-odds 2.198 --source \"OPERATOR_BOOKMAKER\" --notes \"live trigger price\" --answer-mode --rerun-after-record", "rerun_command": "./run_daily_goal.sh 2026-06-21 2", "row_number": 1, "scope": "world_cup", "seen_odds": "2.12", "source": "The Odds API soccer_fifa_world_cup: Matchbook (API)", "stake_units": "0", "thresholds": { "expected_value": "0.0034", "kickoff_local": "2026-06-21T20:00+01:00", "model_probability": "0.4733", "needed_odds": "2.198", "price_move": "+0.078 (3.7%)", "seen_odds": "2.12", "source": "The Odds API soccer_fifa_world_cup: Matchbook (API)", "stake_units": "0", "watch_rank": "1", "watch_window": "in 9h 28m; final 2026-06-21T19:40+01:00" }, "watch_rank": "1", "watch_window": "in 9h 28m; final 2026-06-21T19:40+01:00", "why": "No stake now; watch for 2.198+ model price trigger and complete price, then rerun. stress probability 47.3%; price 2.12; conservative EV 0.3%; break-even odds 2.113; bet odds 2.198 for 4% EV; recommendation no_bet_rechecked_price; fresh price check from The Odds API soccer_fifa_world_cup: Matchbook (API); news: injury: Belgium winger Doku ruled out of World Cup match against Iran due to illness - FlashScore UK | lineup: Belgium vs Iran – Predicted lineup and team news - Yahoo Sports | lineup: Belgium vs Iran Predicted Lineups &; decision: price below World Cup EV gate", "workflow": { "command_template": { "instruction": "Replace LIVE_DECIMAL_ODDS=live bookmaker price; OPERATOR_BOOKMAKER=bookmaker/source checked before running template commands.", "mode": "template", "placeholders": [ { "field": "decimal_odds", "kind": "decimal_odds", "label": "Live decimal odds", "minimum": "2.198", "placeholder": "LIVE_DECIMAL_ODDS", "required": true }, { "field": "source", "kind": "operator_source", "label": "Bookmaker/operator", "placeholder": "OPERATOR_BOOKMAKER", "required": true } ], "requires_replacement": true }, "commands": { "preview_price": "python3 record_price_check.py --action-row 1 --decimal-odds LIVE_DECIMAL_ODDS --min-decimal-odds 2.198 --source \"OPERATOR_BOOKMAKER\" --notes \"live trigger price\" --dry-run", "record_price": "python3 record_price_check.py --action-row 1 --decimal-odds LIVE_DECIMAL_ODDS --min-decimal-odds 2.198 --source \"OPERATOR_BOOKMAKER\" --notes \"live trigger price\"", "record_price_and_refresh": "python3 record_price_check.py --action-row 1 --decimal-odds LIVE_DECIMAL_ODDS --min-decimal-odds 2.198 --source \"OPERATOR_BOOKMAKER\" --notes \"live trigger price\" --answer-mode --rerun-after-record", "rerun": "./run_daily_goal.sh 2026-06-21 2" }, "input_fields": [ { "kind": "decimal_odds", "label": "Live decimal odds", "minimum": "2.198", "name": "decimal_odds", "placeholder": "LIVE_DECIMAL_ODDS", "required": true }, { "kind": "operator_source", "label": "Bookmaker/operator", "name": "source", "placeholder": "OPERATOR_BOOKMAKER", "required": true }, { "default": "live trigger price", "kind": "text", "label": "Notes", "name": "notes", "required": false } ], "next_step": "preview_price", "thresholds": { "expected_value": "0.0034", "kickoff_local": "2026-06-21T20:00+01:00", "model_probability": "0.4733", "needed_odds": "2.198", "price_move": "+0.078 (3.7%)", "seen_odds": "2.12", "source": "The Odds API soccer_fifa_world_cup: Matchbook (API)", "stake_units": "0", "watch_rank": "1", "watch_window": "in 9h 28m; final 2026-06-21T19:40+01:00" } } }, { "action_type": "watch_price", "command": "python3 record_price_check.py --action-row 2 --decimal-odds LIVE_DECIMAL_ODDS --min-decimal-odds 2.456 --source \"OPERATOR_BOOKMAKER\" --notes \"live trigger price\"", "command_template": { "instruction": "Replace LIVE_DECIMAL_ODDS=live bookmaker price; OPERATOR_BOOKMAKER=bookmaker/source checked before running template commands.", "mode": "template", "placeholders": [ { "field": "decimal_odds", "kind": "decimal_odds", "label": "Live decimal odds", "minimum": "2.456", "placeholder": "LIVE_DECIMAL_ODDS", "required": true }, { "field": "source", "kind": "operator_source", "label": "Bookmaker/operator", "placeholder": "OPERATOR_BOOKMAKER", "required": true } ], "requires_replacement": true }, "commands": { "preview_price": "python3 record_price_check.py --action-row 2 --decimal-odds LIVE_DECIMAL_ODDS --min-decimal-odds 2.456 --source \"OPERATOR_BOOKMAKER\" --notes \"live trigger price\" --dry-run", "record_price": "python3 record_price_check.py --action-row 2 --decimal-odds LIVE_DECIMAL_ODDS --min-decimal-odds 2.456 --source \"OPERATOR_BOOKMAKER\" --notes \"live trigger price\"", "record_price_and_refresh": "python3 record_price_check.py --action-row 2 --decimal-odds LIVE_DECIMAL_ODDS --min-decimal-odds 2.456 --source \"OPERATOR_BOOKMAKER\" --notes \"live trigger price\" --answer-mode --rerun-after-record", "rerun": "./run_daily_goal.sh 2026-06-21 2" }, "date_utc": "2026-06-21T22:00:00Z", "expected_value": "-0.2926", "input_fields": [ { "kind": "decimal_odds", "label": "Live decimal odds", "minimum": "2.456", "name": "decimal_odds", "placeholder": "LIVE_DECIMAL_ODDS", "required": true }, { "kind": "operator_source", "label": "Bookmaker/operator", "name": "source", "placeholder": "OPERATOR_BOOKMAKER", "required": true }, { "default": "live trigger price", "kind": "text", "label": "Notes", "name": "notes", "required": false } ], "kickoff_local": "2026-06-21T23:00+01:00", "market": "Under 2.5", "match": "Uruguay v Cape Verde", "model_probability": "0.4236", "needed_input": "price", "needed_odds": "2.456", "news_command": "", "preview_command": "python3 record_price_check.py --action-row 2 --decimal-odds LIVE_DECIMAL_ODDS --min-decimal-odds 2.456 --source \"OPERATOR_BOOKMAKER\" --notes \"live trigger price\" --dry-run", "price_move": "+0.786 (47.1%)", "priority": "2", "recommendation": "WATCH_ONLY", "refresh_command": "python3 record_price_check.py --action-row 2 --decimal-odds LIVE_DECIMAL_ODDS --min-decimal-odds 2.456 --source \"OPERATOR_BOOKMAKER\" --notes \"live trigger price\" --answer-mode --rerun-after-record", "rerun_command": "./run_daily_goal.sh 2026-06-21 2", "row_number": 2, "scope": "world_cup", "seen_odds": "1.67", "source": "The Odds API soccer_fifa_world_cup: Unibet (SE) (API)", "stake_units": "0", "thresholds": { "expected_value": "-0.2926", "kickoff_local": "2026-06-21T23:00+01:00", "model_probability": "0.4236", "needed_odds": "2.456", "price_move": "+0.786 (47.1%)", "seen_odds": "1.67", "source": "The Odds API soccer_fifa_world_cup: Unibet (SE) (API)", "stake_units": "0", "watch_rank": "2", "watch_window": "in 12h 28m; final 2026-06-21T22:40+01:00" }, "watch_rank": "2", "watch_window": "in 12h 28m; final 2026-06-21T22:40+01:00", "why": "No stake now; watch for 2.456+ model price trigger and complete price, then rerun. stress probability 42.4%; price 1.67; conservative EV -29.3%; break-even odds 2.361; bet odds 2.456 for 4% EV; recommendation no_bet_rechecked_price; fresh price check from The Odds API soccer_fifa_world_cup: Unibet (SE) (API); news: injury: Team News: Uruguay vs. Cape Verde injury, suspension list, predicted XIs | World Cup 2026 - Sports Mole | lineup: Uruguay vs Cape Verde Predicted Lineups & Team News - Betfred Insights | lineup: Cape Verde predic; decision: price below World Cup EV gate", "workflow": { "command_template": { "instruction": "Replace LIVE_DECIMAL_ODDS=live bookmaker price; OPERATOR_BOOKMAKER=bookmaker/source checked before running template commands.", "mode": "template", "placeholders": [ { "field": "decimal_odds", "kind": "decimal_odds", "label": "Live decimal odds", "minimum": "2.456", "placeholder": "LIVE_DECIMAL_ODDS", "required": true }, { "field": "source", "kind": "operator_source", "label": "Bookmaker/operator", "placeholder": "OPERATOR_BOOKMAKER", "required": true } ], "requires_replacement": true }, "commands": { "preview_price": "python3 record_price_check.py --action-row 2 --decimal-odds LIVE_DECIMAL_ODDS --min-decimal-odds 2.456 --source \"OPERATOR_BOOKMAKER\" --notes \"live trigger price\" --dry-run", "record_price": "python3 record_price_check.py --action-row 2 --decimal-odds LIVE_DECIMAL_ODDS --min-decimal-odds 2.456 --source \"OPERATOR_BOOKMAKER\" --notes \"live trigger price\"", "record_price_and_refresh": "python3 record_price_check.py --action-row 2 --decimal-odds LIVE_DECIMAL_ODDS --min-decimal-odds 2.456 --source \"OPERATOR_BOOKMAKER\" --notes \"live trigger price\" --answer-mode --rerun-after-record", "rerun": "./run_daily_goal.sh 2026-06-21 2" }, "input_fields": [ { "kind": "decimal_odds", "label": "Live decimal odds", "minimum": "2.456", "name": "decimal_odds", "placeholder": "LIVE_DECIMAL_ODDS", "required": true }, { "kind": "operator_source", "label": "Bookmaker/operator", "name": "source", "placeholder": "OPERATOR_BOOKMAKER", "required": true }, { "default": "live trigger price", "kind": "text", "label": "Notes", "name": "notes", "required": false } ], "next_step": "preview_price", "thresholds": { "expected_value": "-0.2926", "kickoff_local": "2026-06-21T23:00+01:00", "model_probability": "0.4236", "needed_odds": "2.456", "price_move": "+0.786 (47.1%)", "seen_odds": "1.67", "source": "The Odds API soccer_fifa_world_cup: Unibet (SE) (API)", "stake_units": "0", "watch_rank": "2", "watch_window": "in 12h 28m; final 2026-06-21T22:40+01:00" } } }, { "action_type": "watch_price", "command": "python3 record_price_check.py --action-row 3 --decimal-odds LIVE_DECIMAL_ODDS --min-decimal-odds 2.076 --source \"OPERATOR_BOOKMAKER\" --notes \"live trigger price\"", "command_template": { "instruction": "Replace LIVE_DECIMAL_ODDS=live bookmaker price; OPERATOR_BOOKMAKER=bookmaker/source checked before running template commands.", "mode": "template", "placeholders": [ { "field": "decimal_odds", "kind": "decimal_odds", "label": "Live decimal odds", "minimum": "2.076", "placeholder": "LIVE_DECIMAL_ODDS", "required": true }, { "field": "source", "kind": "operator_source", "label": "Bookmaker/operator", "placeholder": "OPERATOR_BOOKMAKER", "required": true } ], "requires_replacement": true }, "commands": { "preview_price": "python3 record_price_check.py --action-row 3 --decimal-odds LIVE_DECIMAL_ODDS --min-decimal-odds 2.076 --source \"OPERATOR_BOOKMAKER\" --notes \"live trigger price\" --dry-run", "record_price": "python3 record_price_check.py --action-row 3 --decimal-odds LIVE_DECIMAL_ODDS --min-decimal-odds 2.076 --source \"OPERATOR_BOOKMAKER\" --notes \"live trigger price\"", "record_price_and_refresh": "python3 record_price_check.py --action-row 3 --decimal-odds LIVE_DECIMAL_ODDS --min-decimal-odds 2.076 --source \"OPERATOR_BOOKMAKER\" --notes \"live trigger price\" --answer-mode --rerun-after-record", "rerun": "./run_daily_goal.sh 2026-06-21 2" }, "date_utc": "2026-06-22T01:00:00Z", "expected_value": "-0.0978", "input_fields": [ { "kind": "decimal_odds", "label": "Live decimal odds", "minimum": "2.076", "name": "decimal_odds", "placeholder": "LIVE_DECIMAL_ODDS", "required": true }, { "kind": "operator_source", "label": "Bookmaker/operator", "name": "source", "placeholder": "OPERATOR_BOOKMAKER", "required": true }, { "default": "live trigger price", "kind": "text", "label": "Notes", "name": "notes", "required": false } ], "kickoff_local": "2026-06-22T02:00+01:00", "market": "Under 2.5", "match": "New Zealand v Egypt", "model_probability": "0.5012", "needed_input": "price", "needed_odds": "2.076", "news_command": "", "preview_command": "python3 record_price_check.py --action-row 3 --decimal-odds LIVE_DECIMAL_ODDS --min-decimal-odds 2.076 --source \"OPERATOR_BOOKMAKER\" --notes \"live trigger price\" --dry-run", "price_move": "+0.276 (15.3%)", "priority": "2", "recommendation": "WATCH_ONLY", "refresh_command": "python3 record_price_check.py --action-row 3 --decimal-odds LIVE_DECIMAL_ODDS --min-decimal-odds 2.076 --source \"OPERATOR_BOOKMAKER\" --notes \"live trigger price\" --answer-mode --rerun-after-record", "rerun_command": "./run_daily_goal.sh 2026-06-21 2", "row_number": 3, "scope": "world_cup", "seen_odds": "1.80", "source": "The Odds API soccer_fifa_world_cup: Unibet (SE) (API)", "stake_units": "0", "thresholds": { "expected_value": "-0.0978", "kickoff_local": "2026-06-22T02:00+01:00", "model_probability": "0.5012", "needed_odds": "2.076", "price_move": "+0.276 (15.3%)", "seen_odds": "1.80", "source": "The Odds API soccer_fifa_world_cup: Unibet (SE) (API)", "stake_units": "0", "watch_rank": "3", "watch_window": "in 15h 28m; final 2026-06-22T01:40+01:00" }, "watch_rank": "3", "watch_window": "in 15h 28m; final 2026-06-22T01:40+01:00", "why": "No stake now; watch for 2.076+ model price trigger and complete price, then rerun. stress probability 50.1%; price 1.80; conservative EV -9.8%; break-even odds 1.995; bet odds 2.076 for 4% EV; recommendation no_bet_rechecked_price; fresh price check from The Odds API soccer_fifa_world_cup: Unibet (SE) (API); news: lineup: Egypt predicted lineup and team news vs New Zealand - Yahoo Sports Canada | lineup: New Zealand vs Egypt Predicted Lineups & Team News - Betfred Insights | availability: David Raya: ‘When you lose a Champions Lea; decision: price below World Cup EV gate", "workflow": { "command_template": { "instruction": "Replace LIVE_DECIMAL_ODDS=live bookmaker price; OPERATOR_BOOKMAKER=bookmaker/source checked before running template commands.", "mode": "template", "placeholders": [ { "field": "decimal_odds", "kind": "decimal_odds", "label": "Live decimal odds", "minimum": "2.076", "placeholder": "LIVE_DECIMAL_ODDS", "required": true }, { "field": "source", "kind": "operator_source", "label": "Bookmaker/operator", "placeholder": "OPERATOR_BOOKMAKER", "required": true } ], "requires_replacement": true }, "commands": { "preview_price": "python3 record_price_check.py --action-row 3 --decimal-odds LIVE_DECIMAL_ODDS --min-decimal-odds 2.076 --source \"OPERATOR_BOOKMAKER\" --notes \"live trigger price\" --dry-run", "record_price": "python3 record_price_check.py --action-row 3 --decimal-odds LIVE_DECIMAL_ODDS --min-decimal-odds 2.076 --source \"OPERATOR_BOOKMAKER\" --notes \"live trigger price\"", "record_price_and_refresh": "python3 record_price_check.py --action-row 3 --decimal-odds LIVE_DECIMAL_ODDS --min-decimal-odds 2.076 --source \"OPERATOR_BOOKMAKER\" --notes \"live trigger price\" --answer-mode --rerun-after-record", "rerun": "./run_daily_goal.sh 2026-06-21 2" }, "input_fields": [ { "kind": "decimal_odds", "label": "Live decimal odds", "minimum": "2.076", "name": "decimal_odds", "placeholder": "LIVE_DECIMAL_ODDS", "required": true }, { "kind": "operator_source", "label": "Bookmaker/operator", "name": "source", "placeholder": "OPERATOR_BOOKMAKER", "required": true }, { "default": "live trigger price", "kind": "text", "label": "Notes", "name": "notes", "required": false } ], "next_step": "preview_price", "thresholds": { "expected_value": "-0.0978", "kickoff_local": "2026-06-22T02:00+01:00", "model_probability": "0.5012", "needed_odds": "2.076", "price_move": "+0.276 (15.3%)", "seen_odds": "1.80", "source": "The Odds API soccer_fifa_world_cup: Unibet (SE) (API)", "stake_units": "0", "watch_rank": "3", "watch_window": "in 15h 28m; final 2026-06-22T01:40+01:00" } } }, { "action_type": "watch_price", "command": "python3 record_price_check.py --action-row 4 --decimal-odds LIVE_DECIMAL_ODDS --min-decimal-odds 2.513 --source \"OPERATOR_BOOKMAKER\" --notes \"live trigger price\"", "command_template": { "instruction": "Replace LIVE_DECIMAL_ODDS=live bookmaker price; OPERATOR_BOOKMAKER=bookmaker/source checked before running template commands.", "mode": "template", "placeholders": [ { "field": "decimal_odds", "kind": "decimal_odds", "label": "Live decimal odds", "minimum": "2.513", "placeholder": "LIVE_DECIMAL_ODDS", "required": true }, { "field": "source", "kind": "operator_source", "label": "Bookmaker/operator", "placeholder": "OPERATOR_BOOKMAKER", "required": true } ], "requires_replacement": true }, "commands": { "preview_price": "python3 record_price_check.py --action-row 4 --decimal-odds LIVE_DECIMAL_ODDS --min-decimal-odds 2.513 --source \"OPERATOR_BOOKMAKER\" --notes \"live trigger price\" --dry-run", "record_price": "python3 record_price_check.py --action-row 4 --decimal-odds LIVE_DECIMAL_ODDS --min-decimal-odds 2.513 --source \"OPERATOR_BOOKMAKER\" --notes \"live trigger price\"", "record_price_and_refresh": "python3 record_price_check.py --action-row 4 --decimal-odds LIVE_DECIMAL_ODDS --min-decimal-odds 2.513 --source \"OPERATOR_BOOKMAKER\" --notes \"live trigger price\" --answer-mode --rerun-after-record", "rerun": "./run_daily_goal.sh 2026-06-21 2" }, "date_utc": "2026-06-22T01:00:00Z", "expected_value": "-0.1184", "input_fields": [ { "kind": "decimal_odds", "label": "Live decimal odds", "minimum": "2.513", "name": "decimal_odds", "placeholder": "LIVE_DECIMAL_ODDS", "required": true }, { "kind": "operator_source", "label": "Bookmaker/operator", "name": "source", "placeholder": "OPERATOR_BOOKMAKER", "required": true }, { "default": "live trigger price", "kind": "text", "label": "Notes", "name": "notes", "required": false } ], "kickoff_local": "2026-06-22T02:00+01:00", "market": "Over 2.5", "match": "New Zealand v Egypt", "model_probability": "0.4139", "needed_input": "price", "needed_odds": "2.513", "news_command": "", "preview_command": "python3 record_price_check.py --action-row 4 --decimal-odds LIVE_DECIMAL_ODDS --min-decimal-odds 2.513 --source \"OPERATOR_BOOKMAKER\" --notes \"live trigger price\" --dry-run", "price_move": "+0.383 (18.0%)", "priority": "2", "recommendation": "WATCH_ONLY", "refresh_command": "python3 record_price_check.py --action-row 4 --decimal-odds LIVE_DECIMAL_ODDS --min-decimal-odds 2.513 --source \"OPERATOR_BOOKMAKER\" --notes \"live trigger price\" --answer-mode --rerun-after-record", "rerun_command": "./run_daily_goal.sh 2026-06-21 2", "row_number": 4, "scope": "world_cup", "seen_odds": "2.13", "source": "The Odds API soccer_fifa_world_cup: GTbets (API)", "stake_units": "0", "thresholds": { "expected_value": "-0.1184", "kickoff_local": "2026-06-22T02:00+01:00", "model_probability": "0.4139", "needed_odds": "2.513", "price_move": "+0.383 (18.0%)", "seen_odds": "2.13", "source": "The Odds API soccer_fifa_world_cup: GTbets (API)", "stake_units": "0", "watch_rank": "4", "watch_window": "in 15h 28m; final 2026-06-22T01:40+01:00" }, "watch_rank": "4", "watch_window": "in 15h 28m; final 2026-06-22T01:40+01:00", "why": "No stake now; watch for 2.513+ model price trigger and complete price, then rerun. stress probability 41.4%; price 2.13; conservative EV -11.8%; break-even odds 2.416; bet odds 2.513 for 4% EV; recommendation no_bet_rechecked_price; fresh price check from The Odds API soccer_fifa_world_cup: GTbets (API); news: lineup: Egypt predicted lineup and team news vs New Zealand - Yahoo Sports Canada | lineup: New Zealand vs Egypt Predicted Lineups & Team News - Betfred Insights | availability: David Raya: ‘When you lose a Champions Lea; decision: price below World Cup EV gate", "workflow": { "command_template": { "instruction": "Replace LIVE_DECIMAL_ODDS=live bookmaker price; OPERATOR_BOOKMAKER=bookmaker/source checked before running template commands.", "mode": "template", "placeholders": [ { "field": "decimal_odds", "kind": "decimal_odds", "label": "Live decimal odds", "minimum": "2.513", "placeholder": "LIVE_DECIMAL_ODDS", "required": true }, { "field": "source", "kind": "operator_source", "label": "Bookmaker/operator", "placeholder": "OPERATOR_BOOKMAKER", "required": true } ], "requires_replacement": true }, "commands": { "preview_price": "python3 record_price_check.py --action-row 4 --decimal-odds LIVE_DECIMAL_ODDS --min-decimal-odds 2.513 --source \"OPERATOR_BOOKMAKER\" --notes \"live trigger price\" --dry-run", "record_price": "python3 record_price_check.py --action-row 4 --decimal-odds LIVE_DECIMAL_ODDS --min-decimal-odds 2.513 --source \"OPERATOR_BOOKMAKER\" --notes \"live trigger price\"", "record_price_and_refresh": "python3 record_price_check.py --action-row 4 --decimal-odds LIVE_DECIMAL_ODDS --min-decimal-odds 2.513 --source \"OPERATOR_BOOKMAKER\" --notes \"live trigger price\" --answer-mode --rerun-after-record", "rerun": "./run_daily_goal.sh 2026-06-21 2" }, "input_fields": [ { "kind": "decimal_odds", "label": "Live decimal odds", "minimum": "2.513", "name": "decimal_odds", "placeholder": "LIVE_DECIMAL_ODDS", "required": true }, { "kind": "operator_source", "label": "Bookmaker/operator", "name": "source", "placeholder": "OPERATOR_BOOKMAKER", "required": true }, { "default": "live trigger price", "kind": "text", "label": "Notes", "name": "notes", "required": false } ], "next_step": "preview_price", "thresholds": { "expected_value": "-0.1184", "kickoff_local": "2026-06-22T02:00+01:00", "model_probability": "0.4139", "needed_odds": "2.513", "price_move": "+0.383 (18.0%)", "seen_odds": "2.13", "source": "The Odds API soccer_fifa_world_cup: GTbets (API)", "stake_units": "0", "watch_rank": "4", "watch_window": "in 15h 28m; final 2026-06-22T01:40+01:00" } } }, { "action_type": "watch_price", "command": "python3 record_price_check.py --action-row 5 --decimal-odds LIVE_DECIMAL_ODDS --min-decimal-odds 2.347 --source \"OPERATOR_BOOKMAKER\" --notes \"live trigger price\"", "command_template": { "instruction": "Replace LIVE_DECIMAL_ODDS=live bookmaker price; OPERATOR_BOOKMAKER=bookmaker/source checked before running template commands.", "mode": "template", "placeholders": [ { "field": "decimal_odds", "kind": "decimal_odds", "label": "Live decimal odds", "minimum": "2.347", "placeholder": "LIVE_DECIMAL_ODDS", "required": true }, { "field": "source", "kind": "operator_source", "label": "Bookmaker/operator", "placeholder": "OPERATOR_BOOKMAKER", "required": true } ], "requires_replacement": true }, "commands": { "preview_price": "python3 record_price_check.py --action-row 5 --decimal-odds LIVE_DECIMAL_ODDS --min-decimal-odds 2.347 --source \"OPERATOR_BOOKMAKER\" --notes \"live trigger price\" --dry-run", "record_price": "python3 record_price_check.py --action-row 5 --decimal-odds LIVE_DECIMAL_ODDS --min-decimal-odds 2.347 --source \"OPERATOR_BOOKMAKER\" --notes \"live trigger price\"", "record_price_and_refresh": "python3 record_price_check.py --action-row 5 --decimal-odds LIVE_DECIMAL_ODDS --min-decimal-odds 2.347 --source \"OPERATOR_BOOKMAKER\" --notes \"live trigger price\" --answer-mode --rerun-after-record", "rerun": "./run_daily_goal.sh 2026-06-21 2" }, "date_utc": "2026-06-22T17:00:00Z", "expected_value": "-0.1045", "input_fields": [ { "kind": "decimal_odds", "label": "Live decimal odds", "minimum": "2.347", "name": "decimal_odds", "placeholder": "LIVE_DECIMAL_ODDS", "required": true }, { "kind": "operator_source", "label": "Bookmaker/operator", "name": "source", "placeholder": "OPERATOR_BOOKMAKER", "required": true }, { "default": "live trigger price", "kind": "text", "label": "Notes", "name": "notes", "required": false } ], "kickoff_local": "2026-06-22T18:00+01:00", "market": "Over 2.5", "match": "Argentina v Austria", "model_probability": "0.4433", "needed_input": "price", "needed_odds": "2.347", "news_command": "", "preview_command": "python3 record_price_check.py --action-row 5 --decimal-odds LIVE_DECIMAL_ODDS --min-decimal-odds 2.347 --source \"OPERATOR_BOOKMAKER\" --notes \"live trigger price\" --dry-run", "price_move": "+0.327 (16.2%)", "priority": "2", "recommendation": "WATCH_ONLY", "refresh_command": "python3 record_price_check.py --action-row 5 --decimal-odds LIVE_DECIMAL_ODDS --min-decimal-odds 2.347 --source \"OPERATOR_BOOKMAKER\" --notes \"live trigger price\" --answer-mode --rerun-after-record", "rerun_command": "./run_daily_goal.sh 2026-06-21 2", "row_number": 5, "scope": "world_cup", "seen_odds": "2.02", "source": "The Odds API soccer_fifa_world_cup: Matchbook (API)", "stake_units": "0", "thresholds": { "expected_value": "-0.1045", "kickoff_local": "2026-06-22T18:00+01:00", "model_probability": "0.4433", "needed_odds": "2.347", "price_move": "+0.327 (16.2%)", "seen_odds": "2.02", "source": "The Odds API soccer_fifa_world_cup: Matchbook (API)", "stake_units": "0", "watch_rank": "5", "watch_window": "in 1d 7h; final 2026-06-22T17:40+01:00" }, "watch_rank": "5", "watch_window": "in 1d 7h; final 2026-06-22T17:40+01:00", "why": "No stake now; watch for 2.347+ model price trigger and complete price, then rerun. stress probability 44.3%; price 2.02; conservative EV -10.4%; break-even odds 2.256; bet odds 2.347 for 4% EV; recommendation no_bet_rechecked_price; fresh price check from The Odds API soccer_fifa_world_cup: Matchbook (API); news: injury: Argentina Dealt Severe Injury Blow Ahead of Crucial Austria Clash - The Daily Campus | lineup: Argentina hint at multiple changes to starting XI against Austria - daily-sun.com | lineup: Argentina vs Austria at W; decision: price below World Cup EV gate", "workflow": { "command_template": { "instruction": "Replace LIVE_DECIMAL_ODDS=live bookmaker price; OPERATOR_BOOKMAKER=bookmaker/source checked before running template commands.", "mode": "template", "placeholders": [ { "field": "decimal_odds", "kind": "decimal_odds", "label": "Live decimal odds", "minimum": "2.347", "placeholder": "LIVE_DECIMAL_ODDS", "required": true }, { "field": "source", "kind": "operator_source", "label": "Bookmaker/operator", "placeholder": "OPERATOR_BOOKMAKER", "required": true } ], "requires_replacement": true }, "commands": { "preview_price": "python3 record_price_check.py --action-row 5 --decimal-odds LIVE_DECIMAL_ODDS --min-decimal-odds 2.347 --source \"OPERATOR_BOOKMAKER\" --notes \"live trigger price\" --dry-run", "record_price": "python3 record_price_check.py --action-row 5 --decimal-odds LIVE_DECIMAL_ODDS --min-decimal-odds 2.347 --source \"OPERATOR_BOOKMAKER\" --notes \"live trigger price\"", "record_price_and_refresh": "python3 record_price_check.py --action-row 5 --decimal-odds LIVE_DECIMAL_ODDS --min-decimal-odds 2.347 --source \"OPERATOR_BOOKMAKER\" --notes \"live trigger price\" --answer-mode --rerun-after-record", "rerun": "./run_daily_goal.sh 2026-06-21 2" }, "input_fields": [ { "kind": "decimal_odds", "label": "Live decimal odds", "minimum": "2.347", "name": "decimal_odds", "placeholder": "LIVE_DECIMAL_ODDS", "required": true }, { "kind": "operator_source", "label": "Bookmaker/operator", "name": "source", "placeholder": "OPERATOR_BOOKMAKER", "required": true }, { "default": "live trigger price", "kind": "text", "label": "Notes", "name": "notes", "required": false } ], "next_step": "preview_price", "thresholds": { "expected_value": "-0.1045", "kickoff_local": "2026-06-22T18:00+01:00", "model_probability": "0.4433", "needed_odds": "2.347", "price_move": "+0.327 (16.2%)", "seen_odds": "2.02", "source": "The Odds API soccer_fifa_world_cup: Matchbook (API)", "stake_units": "0", "watch_rank": "5", "watch_window": "in 1d 7h; final 2026-06-22T17:40+01:00" } } }, { "action_type": "watch_price", "command": "python3 record_price_check.py --action-row 6 --decimal-odds LIVE_DECIMAL_ODDS --min-decimal-odds 3.469 --source \"OPERATOR_BOOKMAKER\" --notes \"live trigger price\"", "command_template": { "instruction": "Replace LIVE_DECIMAL_ODDS=live bookmaker price; OPERATOR_BOOKMAKER=bookmaker/source checked before running template commands.", "mode": "template", "placeholders": [ { "field": "decimal_odds", "kind": "decimal_odds", "label": "Live decimal odds", "minimum": "3.469", "placeholder": "LIVE_DECIMAL_ODDS", "required": true }, { "field": "source", "kind": "operator_source", "label": "Bookmaker/operator", "placeholder": "OPERATOR_BOOKMAKER", "required": true } ], "requires_replacement": true }, "commands": { "preview_price": "python3 record_price_check.py --action-row 6 --decimal-odds LIVE_DECIMAL_ODDS --min-decimal-odds 3.469 --source \"OPERATOR_BOOKMAKER\" --notes \"live trigger price\" --dry-run", "record_price": "python3 record_price_check.py --action-row 6 --decimal-odds LIVE_DECIMAL_ODDS --min-decimal-odds 3.469 --source \"OPERATOR_BOOKMAKER\" --notes \"live trigger price\"", "record_price_and_refresh": "python3 record_price_check.py --action-row 6 --decimal-odds LIVE_DECIMAL_ODDS --min-decimal-odds 3.469 --source \"OPERATOR_BOOKMAKER\" --notes \"live trigger price\" --answer-mode --rerun-after-record", "rerun": "./run_daily_goal.sh 2026-06-21 2" }, "date_utc": "2026-06-22T21:00:00Z", "expected_value": "-0.0107", "input_fields": [ { "kind": "decimal_odds", "label": "Live decimal odds", "minimum": "3.469", "name": "decimal_odds", "placeholder": "LIVE_DECIMAL_ODDS", "required": true }, { "kind": "operator_source", "label": "Bookmaker/operator", "name": "source", "placeholder": "OPERATOR_BOOKMAKER", "required": true }, { "default": "live trigger price", "kind": "text", "label": "Notes", "name": "notes", "required": false } ], "kickoff_local": "2026-06-22T22:00+01:00", "market": "Under 2.5", "match": "France v Iraq", "model_probability": "0.2998", "needed_input": "price", "needed_odds": "3.469", "news_command": "", "preview_command": "python3 record_price_check.py --action-row 6 --decimal-odds LIVE_DECIMAL_ODDS --min-decimal-odds 3.469 --source \"OPERATOR_BOOKMAKER\" --notes \"live trigger price\" --dry-run", "price_move": "+0.169 (5.1%)", "priority": "2", "recommendation": "WATCH_ONLY", "refresh_command": "python3 record_price_check.py --action-row 6 --decimal-odds LIVE_DECIMAL_ODDS --min-decimal-odds 3.469 --source \"OPERATOR_BOOKMAKER\" --notes \"live trigger price\" --answer-mode --rerun-after-record", "rerun_command": "./run_daily_goal.sh 2026-06-21 2", "row_number": 6, "scope": "world_cup", "seen_odds": "3.30", "source": "The Odds API soccer_fifa_world_cup: Betsson (API)", "stake_units": "0", "thresholds": { "expected_value": "-0.0107", "kickoff_local": "2026-06-22T22:00+01:00", "model_probability": "0.2998", "needed_odds": "3.469", "price_move": "+0.169 (5.1%)", "seen_odds": "3.30", "source": "The Odds API soccer_fifa_world_cup: Betsson (API)", "stake_units": "0", "watch_rank": "6", "watch_window": "in 1d 11h; final 2026-06-22T21:40+01:00" }, "watch_rank": "6", "watch_window": "in 1d 11h; final 2026-06-22T21:40+01:00", "why": "No stake now; watch for 3.469+ model price trigger and complete price, then rerun. stress probability 30.0%; price 3.30; conservative EV -1.1%; break-even odds 3.336; bet odds 3.469 for 4% EV; recommendation no_bet_rechecked_price; fresh price check from The Odds API soccer_fifa_world_cup: Betsson (API); news: lineup: France vs Iraq: Three changes expected in France’s lineup - MSN | lineup: France vs Iraq – The French lineup announced with changes including Barcola - MSN | lineup: France vs Iraq – The French lineup announced w; decision: price below World Cup EV gate", "workflow": { "command_template": { "instruction": "Replace LIVE_DECIMAL_ODDS=live bookmaker price; OPERATOR_BOOKMAKER=bookmaker/source checked before running template commands.", "mode": "template", "placeholders": [ { "field": "decimal_odds", "kind": "decimal_odds", "label": "Live decimal odds", "minimum": "3.469", "placeholder": "LIVE_DECIMAL_ODDS", "required": true }, { "field": "source", "kind": "operator_source", "label": "Bookmaker/operator", "placeholder": "OPERATOR_BOOKMAKER", "required": true } ], "requires_replacement": true }, "commands": { "preview_price": "python3 record_price_check.py --action-row 6 --decimal-odds LIVE_DECIMAL_ODDS --min-decimal-odds 3.469 --source \"OPERATOR_BOOKMAKER\" --notes \"live trigger price\" --dry-run", "record_price": "python3 record_price_check.py --action-row 6 --decimal-odds LIVE_DECIMAL_ODDS --min-decimal-odds 3.469 --source \"OPERATOR_BOOKMAKER\" --notes \"live trigger price\"", "record_price_and_refresh": "python3 record_price_check.py --action-row 6 --decimal-odds LIVE_DECIMAL_ODDS --min-decimal-odds 3.469 --source \"OPERATOR_BOOKMAKER\" --notes \"live trigger price\" --answer-mode --rerun-after-record", "rerun": "./run_daily_goal.sh 2026-06-21 2" }, "input_fields": [ { "kind": "decimal_odds", "label": "Live decimal odds", "minimum": "3.469", "name": "decimal_odds", "placeholder": "LIVE_DECIMAL_ODDS", "required": true }, { "kind": "operator_source", "label": "Bookmaker/operator", "name": "source", "placeholder": "OPERATOR_BOOKMAKER", "required": true }, { "default": "live trigger price", "kind": "text", "label": "Notes", "name": "notes", "required": false } ], "next_step": "preview_price", "thresholds": { "expected_value": "-0.0107", "kickoff_local": "2026-06-22T22:00+01:00", "model_probability": "0.2998", "needed_odds": "3.469", "price_move": "+0.169 (5.1%)", "seen_odds": "3.30", "source": "The Odds API soccer_fifa_world_cup: Betsson (API)", "stake_units": "0", "watch_rank": "6", "watch_window": "in 1d 11h; final 2026-06-22T21:40+01:00" } } } ], "why": "1 World Cup fixture(s) have no market checks", "window": { "as_of": "2026-06-21T07:32:00.796985+00:00", "as_of_local": "2026-06-21T08:32:00.796985+01:00", "days": 2, "end_date": "2026-06-22", "start_date": "2026-06-21", "timezone": "Europe/Dublin" } }